MT NR general elk odds

[DonV]

I got a point last year and I think I can get a point this year and then apply. What are my odds of drawing my general elk tag?

 

[CMF]

53% w/0
0% w/1
84% w/2

 

[voltage]

53% w/0
0% w/1
84% w/2

come on, make him spend 14 seconds on google!!!

 

[DonV]

I have never been able to fund the odds, let alone the point purchase scenario explained clearly anywhere. Very confusing and I apply for 50 tags a year in a dozen states. I have never had as much trouble understanding a draw as I do MT elk. HF does not tell you, MT website does not tell you, calling MT gives me different answers every time and Hunters trailhead does not tell you. I am willing to, and have spent time trying to figure it out with no luck.

Thanks!

BTW google does not tell you............

 

[voltage]

I have never been able to fund the odds, let alone the point purchase scenario explained clearly anywhere. Very confusing and I apply for 50 tags a year in a dozen states. I have never had as much trouble understanding a draw as I do MT elk. HF does not tell you, MT website does not tell you, calling MT gives me different answers every time and Hunters trailhead does not tell you. I am willing to, and have spent time trying to figure it out with no luck.

Thanks!

BTW google does not tell you............

time me!

 

[voltage]

https://myfwp.mt.gov/fwpPub/drawingStatistics

Maybe 18 seconds

 

[DonV]

I have draw 4 sheep tags and I live in Ohio so I think I am pretty good at figuring out draws........

 

[voltage]

I have draw 4 sheep tags and I live in Ohio so I think I am pretty good at figuring out draws........

nice!

 

[CMF]

I have draw 4 sheep tags and I live in Ohio so I think I am pretty good at figuring out draws........

MT is tough to get my head around. I'm not giving them point money unless I have to. When I plan to go back, I'm going to try and draw with zero first. You can pay me back with some sheep drawing tactics

 

[schur7559]

I have never been able to fund the odds, let alone the point purchase scenario explained clearly anywhere. Very confusing and I apply for 50 tags a year in a dozen states. I have never had as much trouble understanding a draw as I do MT elk. HF does not tell you, MT website does not tell you, calling MT gives me different answers every time and Hunters trailhead does not tell you. I am willing to, and have spent time trying to figure it out with no luck.

Thanks!

BTW google does not tell you............

Don’t waste your time trying to understand it. My buddy and I drew with 1.5 points last year and there were people that didn’t draw with 2. It was a whole debacle that happened to others on this forum as well.

 

[DonV]

I did finally find some info but still not draw odds from 2025

 

[DonV]

Sheep draw is actually simple go for the easiest tag - with only a couple exceptions. I drew NV desert and MT rocky - in both cases I applied for the easiest tags (smallest sheep). WY I applied for unit 22 knowing I could hunt 5 in October. CO sometimes I go for 9 but I drew S44 archery (kinda easy with points). I have dropped out of all those draws now - CO I had a dozen points (drew circa 2010). When I started in 2000 I calculated and figured I was going to draw 2 sheep tags, probably 3 in 25 years. Getting a 4th is really lucky. That said even at 200:1 odds if you put in 5 apps a year for 20 years your odds are aprox. 50/50

 

[DonV]

I also just remembered that I have to apply or I loose my point, which is good to know

 

[CMF]

I hit rocky archery in co last year, shifting toward desert now, and my ID toward goat. going to start in nv this year.

 

[Erict]

https://myfwp.mt.gov/fwpPub/drawingStatistics

Maybe 18 seconds

... and search for "Nonresident Combo", not "Elk", so maybe 20 seconds total.....

 

[stank.243]

 

[Speaks]

Seems counterintuitive that 0 preference points is close to 50/50 and 1 preference point is zero?

 

[DonV]

It does seem weird but I have read that is true because of how they do they draw. Starting in NV now is tough, they square points. Lot's of guys with 25 points or more (25x25=625). The only good news is long term in most draws 3% quit a year. Loooong term you will likely draw any tag if you apply for 30 years or more. Those numbers are from 10-20 years ago and might have changed. That said I doubt the 3% dropping each year will ever change much.

THANKS for the odds and also adding in the word elk combo does make a difference I never thought of that.

 

[CMF]

Seems counterintuitive that 0 preference points is close to 50/50 and 1 preference point is zero?

That's not the only thing counterintuitive about Montana's draw...

The only good news is long term in most draws 3% quit a year. Loooong term you will likely draw any tag if you apply for 30 years or more. Those numbers are from 10-20 years ago and might have changed. That said I doubt the 3% dropping each year will ever change much.

Any idea where that data comes from? First I've heard of that. It might help make the case for a youngster to apply for sheep in Wy, but with the current system, there's no way I'm wasting $150 a year.

 

[cornfedkiller]

Seems counterintuitive that 0 preference points is close to 50/50 and 1 preference point is zero?

Because a certain percentage of tags (25% maybe?) go to 0 point holders.