Moa vs hunting?

[Antares]

Come on girls, you're both pretty. Let's move on.

 

[RWT]

I've done some statistical analysis and simulation of how sample size affects group size, as well as WEZ simulation for various variables.

In the first, I plotted shots fired using Gaussian distributions of shot location on a grid, analyzing average ES group size, mean radius, and mean distance between shots, with 100,000 shots fired for each sample size (e.g., 3-shot groups means 33,333 groups fired, 5-shot groups means 20,000 groups fired, etc.). I made the assumption of ~0.75 MOA on average for 3-shot groups, which I thought was fairly realistic for a decent hunting rifle and load. I have a lot of data and results, and here are a few of them:

As you can see, with large populations of 100,000 shots fired for each sample size, 35- and 50-shot groups average about double the size of 3-shot groups.

And assuming that a rifle/load averages ~0.75 MOA for 3-shot groups and ~1.5 MOA for 50-shot groups, here's a WEZ using a 1 MOA rifle/load at 400 m (with various other parameters and uncertainties):

Curious what this looks like for a 5 shot group that is 1.75”

Asking as that is what most of my Fudd buddies shoot from their rifles. I would like to show them the hit % at 400 yards. But then again it may show them they have a 70+% chance and would make a poor decision.

 

[WeiserBucks]

Curious what this looks like for a 5 shot group that is 1.75”

Asking as that is what most of my Fudd buddies shoot from their rifles. I would like to show them the hit % at 400 yards. But then again it may show them they have a 70+% chance and would make a poor decision.

Have them shoot at 400 and they'll show themselves.

 

[JPW13]

I’ve got a buddy who’s always chasing precision—0.5 MOA is better than 1, and 0.25 MOA is better than 0.5. He’s a phenomenal shot, and I can admire the tiny clusters he prints, but I’ve never understood the time he pours into shrinking groups on paper, when he self identifies as a hunter, not a benchrest shooter.

On the flip side, I shoot at a range with a steel ram at 500 meters. Every fall guys show up (almost always with 300 Win Mags), burn 10 rounds at 100 yards chasing zero, then lob 5–7 shots at the ram. Usually 1 or 2 connect—often on a leg or a horn. Then they proudly announce they’re “ready for hunting season” with their 3 rounds left.

It’s astounding. They’ve just demonstrated they can’t ethically shoot that far, but somehow because 1 in 7 rang steel, they believe they’re long-range hunters. That isn’t precision; it’s ego mixed with a lack of critical thinking.

What is it in human psychology that allows people to ignore clear evidence and still believe they’re more capable than they actually are?

 

[BLJ]

What is it in human psychology that allows people to ignore clear evidence and still believe they’re more capable than they actually are?

When you figure that out PM me and we’ll both be rich.

 

[Formidilosus]

What is it in human psychology that allows people to ignore clear evidence and still believe they’re more capable than they actually are?

Parents, family, and society that teach children self delusion and never force them to look for evidence, see reality, and modify behavior.

 

[Lionheart]

View attachment 938929This is what brought the question up in my mind today. ( ignore the bottom shot. It was my son with his .223). These are two five shot groups. 200yards right at about or under 1 inch. This is with my hunting rifle, off a bench, in zero wind, factory ammo. The part that pissed me off and got me thinking was on the upper dot I flew a shot higher and further right than the rest of the shots. I was legitimately mad about it until I started actually thinking about the level of accuracy “needed” to hunt at my self imposed max range of 500 yards. I was curious if there was a rule of thumb when it came to moa off a bench and hunting distances. I fully understand that more accuracy is more better.

What gun/caliber is that? Is it for sale lol?

 

[wind gypsy]

ROAL is street slang, used by children.

 

[Dan Carey]

View attachment 940217

apple's and orange's?

 

[Jordan Smith]

Curious what this looks like for a 5 shot group that is 1.75”

Asking as that is what most of my Fudd buddies shoot from their rifles. I would like to show them the hit % at 400 yards. But then again it may show them they have a 70+% chance and would make a poor decision.

If we take 1000 shots per group, we see that the average group size trends towards 3x the size of the average 3-shot group.

If we assume an average of 1.33 MOA for 3-shot groups and 1.75 MOA for 5-shot groups, this becomes 4 MOA for 1000-shot groups. Using 4 MOA as the ES for the rifle/load/shooter precision, we still mostly keep 1000 shots on a ~12" target at 400 m, assuming some skill in minimizing the other uncertainties involved (wind estimates within +/- 2 mph, etc.)

 

[RWT]

If we take 1000 shots per group, we see that the average group size trends towards 3x the size of the average 3-shot group.

If we assume an average of 1.33 MOA for 3-shot groups and 1.75 MOA for 5-shot groups, this becomes 4 MOA for 1000-shot groups. Using 4 MOA as the ES for the rifle/load/shooter precision, we still mostly keep 1000 shots on a ~12" target at 400 m, assuming some skill in minimizing the other uncertainties involved (wind estimates within +/- 2 mph, etc.)

Thank you. This is scary. Being the most accurate Fudd in my group of Fudds I see this and feel confident that I could make an ethical shot at 400. I am currently shooting 6” 10 shot groups at 300. Farthest I can shoot on my place. My 10 shoot groups at 100 hover between 1.1& 1.5 MOA. My Fudd buddies will see this and take from it a 97% chance of a hit. I see the dispersion and feel like I need to practice more.

I’ve noticed the difference in wind call between my 6.5cm and 223 at 300 requires more thought in the 223. I need more ammo and a longer range.

 

[Stinky Coyote]

Have an accuracy obsessed buddy who is also hunting obsessed from very young, and shoots a lot and competes as well, best running shot coyote killer I've seen, I attribute his success far more to the shooting he does, not the tiny groups he makes on the range, he just enjoys seeking perfection, and loves chasing things well past the point of practical.

I choose factory available accuracy and only care about hunting, shoot a lot less than he does, the tags we fold aren't really much different, I grew up hunting obsessed as well and still did lots of shooting, no competing. He does get it done on running coyotes better that's fore sure lol, but he does a lot more shooting at running coyotes as well as silhouette competition, otherwise we're both good closers on big game when it counts.

In test runs against each other though I'm generally running a simpler solution setup and faster to 1st round hit on whatever sheep rock or bear rock we tested for fun against each other. I won the sheep rock at 701 yard competition and he won the bear rock one at 575, I shot first both times over pack, and faster, as I was just range and dial to that number on a cut turret for one and the other was reticle hold with memorized hash marks (lr duplex), I shot factory .270's and ammo, he shot his f-class 28" 300wm custom on sheep one and custom .264 win mag on other (I think 26" barrel), hand loads, high bc stuff, itty bitty groups, big charts taped to stock and dialled, he takes a lot longer to break shot in these situations though.

We both killed the imaginary sheep and bear in those two compares. I pinwheeled the 701 yard rock, he spined it and off on windage despite being dead calm, he pinwheeled the 575 yard one I was around 5-6" out on windage and a couple inches out on elevation, I gave him the wind call on the 575 yard one after saying I over compensated the wind hold (it was screaming at us on slight angle). He just doesn't really set up his rifles much different for hunting vs range or competition for trying to boil it down to make it faster to solution so he goes through all the same motions for ranging, consulting chart data and then dialling. He's generally way too light on trigger for hunting also, he did touch off on accident with a coyote that was coming into us and he moved gun when coyote dropped into valley in front of us and would have popped out in front of him, so....the range set up does bite back in hunting situations but still a killer all round. Oh forgot, he also missed biggest whitetail of his life being rotation out on zero but not totally his fault has he loaned rifle out and just didn't check for that when it came back still on 'zero'. He would have killed that deer if he hadn't loaned the rifle out (6 dasher, 1" 5-shot groups at 300 yards his type of acceptable accuracy lol), offhand and shot a couple times after it ran from first miss, just an equipment set up for task at hand situation more than anything. I try to convince him to simplify his hunting setups but he is set in his ways and so am I lol. I care about one thing, he does too much of other things so just runs one system for all.

 

[06 SB]

I hand load and can always get better than 1.5 MOA but if I cannot it is not a deal breaker. I remember when 3 MOA was touted as a good enough group for deer out the 300 yards. I am glad we have improved that standard. YouTube boobs push that anything greater than 1 MOA is a "horrible" shooting rifle. It is not. Most of my rifles would be "barely acceptable" according to these guys but I have loads that are consistent in speed (low ES/SD) and around 1 MOA accuracy for 10 or more shots. Just because a rifle is less than 1 MOA at 100 does not equate to 5 MOA at 500. Velocity variance starts to affect group size past about 300 yards. If your ES is 75fps, then your group can be great at 100 yds and absolutely horrible at 500.

 

[Jordan Smith]

I hand load and can always get better than 1.5 MOA but if I cannot it is not a deal breaker. I remember when 3 MOA was touted as a good enough group for deer out the 300 yards. I am glad we have improved that standard. YouTube boobs push that anything greater than 1 MOA is a "horrible" shooting rifle. It is not. Most of my rifles would be "barely acceptable" according to these guys but I have loads that are consistent in speed (low ES/SD) and around 1 MOA accuracy for 10 or more shots. Just because a rifle is less than 1 MOA at 100 does not equate to 5 MOA at 500. Velocity variance starts to affect group size past about 300 yards. If your ES is 75fps, then your group can be great at 100 yds and absolutely horrible at 500.

The sample size makes a big difference. A 1 MOA group for 3 shots is quite different from a 1 MOA group for 10 shots. Greater than 1 MOA for 3, and even 5, shots is larger than I like from my rifles. But 1 MOA for 10 shots from a hunting rifle is very good, IME. As I posted above, with large sample sizes we expect 5-shot groups to be about 1.3x larger than 3-shot groups, and 10-shot groups to be about 1.6x larger. If we were to shoot 1000-shot groups, we would expect their average size to be almost 3x the size of the average 3-shot group.

Guys talk about the size of groups that their rifles are capable of, but it's important to include the sample size in that claim.