If you look at the last decade Missouri statewide tends to hold ducks more consistently than Arkansas. Recently the weather has been milder and both public and private waterfowl habitat in Missouri have continuously improved.
This year has been weird because it went from hot and no migration to frozen solid in about a week.
The complaining out of Arkansas about degrading waterfowl opportunities has been loud for a decade.
I don’t know the guided scene either place but it’s always felt to me like Arkansas had more guided options than Missouri for ducks. The big guided duck hunt operations in Missouri have really only became a thing in the last 15 years. In Arkansas it’s been a thing for a century.
Part of it is a timing thing. Northern and central Missouri waterfowl hunting is going to peak the last week of November and the first week of December. Arkansas is really a January hunt.