Mathematicians Wanted: Nevada Mule Deer Odds

[S.Clancy]

That makes sense. Goes back to that thing of, "more tag apps of 1% doesn't get you more than 1% odds."

Thanks for the insight!

5 tag apps of 1% gets you 4.9% odds.

1-(.01^5 +.99^5) = .04900 or 4.9%

 

[Jaden Bales]

5 tag apps of 1% gets you 4.9% odds.

1-(.01^5 +.99^5) = .04900 or 4.9%

Saweet.

Dude I'm just so ready to find out if I drew. I know my chances are POTENTIALLY higher than 20% based on different ways I've tried to do this and the suspense is killin me.

 

[S.Clancy]

Yea, I'll be refreshing all day Friday until they come out.

 

[Jaden Bales]

Yea, I'll be refreshing all day Friday until they come out.

For sure. Somebody on here said we'd see credit cards hit today so I've been checking my account already... Not sure if that's rumor or not.

 

[Dos Perros]

The draw itself is your order in line. Every applicant is awarded a place in line, randomly. And they start with #1, the first applicant, review the choices in order, and award as there are tags available. If it's your spot in line and they look at your first choice, and all of those tags are gone, then they look at your second choice, and keep going until they have looked at all five of your choices before moving on to the next person in line. So the odds of drawing a tag is of course heavily dependent on where you end up in line.

Gohunt considers the applicants and their choices, runs a model a million times or something, and then calculates the draw odds based on the inputs. The actual 2018 draw odds may have been different than what the model says, but that's just how the last one turned out, it's not necessarily reflective of how it should have turned out, on average.

I think generally if your 5th choice is 20% and your 1 through 4 are all lower odds you would figure 20% odds of drawing something.

One thing the services don't do is predict how many applicants are going to apply and where. They don't trend data. So I think it'd be useful to trend what the odds are for your 5th choice and extrapolate from that what the odds will be this year. That's a slight improvement to whatever folks publish as odds.

 

[Jaden Bales]

The draw itself is your order in line. Every applicant is awarded a place in line, randomly. And they start with #1, the first applicant, review the choices in order, and award as there are tags available. If it's your spot in line and they look at your first choice, and all of those tags are gone, then they look at your second choice, and keep going until they have looked at all five of your choices before moving on to the next person in line. So the odds of drawing a tag is of course heavily dependent on where you end up in line.

Gohunt considers the applicants and their choices, runs a model a million times or something, and then calculates the draw odds based on the inputs. The actual 2018 draw odds may have been different than what the model says, but that's just how the last one turned out, it's not necessarily reflective of how it should have turned out, on average.

I think generally if your 5th choice is 20% and your 1 through 4 are all lower odds you would figure 20% odds of drawing something.

One thing the services don't do is predict how many applicants are going to apply and where. They don't trend data. So I think it'd be useful to trend what the odds are for your 5th choice and extrapolate from that what the odds will be this year. That's a slight improvement to whatever folks publish as odds.

I was thinking about something similar in considering tag allocations change year to year. So like my 5th choice increased tags this year, so there's an additional non-predictive variable that isn't modeled by GoHunt's services.

Probably safe to say you can only ball park guess this one.