Lumber prices and tariffs

[rodney482]

Current Canada tariffs on USA goods:
Milk: 270%
Cheese: 245%
Butter: 298%
Chicken: 238%
Sausages: 69.9%
Barley seed: 57.8%
Bovine/meat: 26.5%
Cars: 25%
HVAC: 45%
Vacuums: 35%
Cable boxes: 35%
TVs: 45%
Steel: 25%
Aluminum: 45%
Copper: 48%

Who is screwing who?

The USA has been getting screwed by everybody forever

 

[Szwampdonkey]

most sheet goods (Osb, plywood) are us products made with chip pine from the south. dimensional lumber is a product of Canada. at least it is here where i build

Most of the dimensional lumber (8’ 2x4s at least not like i look at all of it) at the HD by me is stamped “Made in the USA”. We should promote more of that Nationwide.

 

[Idaboy]

TVs that are made in the USA​

• Silo Digital
• Philips Magnavox TV
• SunBrite TV
• Element Electronics
• Seura TV
• Sceptre TV

I was unaware so looked it up and there ya go. TVs made in the US.

Thankfully Trump is in now and can start the process of getting these other countries to do their part. The illegal immigration and illicit drugs coming across our borders is out of control.

The US can increase wood and oil production at home so double bonus. If i was already well into building a house now i’d buy right now. If i could wait i’d wait a couple years until these things work themselves out and prices come down in the US.

The whole will stand up and listen now without their Silo TV

 

[Weldor]

It’s not that simple and the idea that forests aren’t being logged is a red herring. Around me forests are being cut faster than they will ever grow back. Loggers are passing on jobs left and right. They cut so much in the past few years they dropped the value of logs substantially

Not here, they (USFS) have just watched as our forest burns, starts at 3 acres and ends up burning 9000 acres as they watch it. Couple of years back they let a small lighting strike burn the Catalina mountains down. Lots of lost Pondersa pine lost for sure.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

The whole will stand up and listen now without their Silo TV

Well, i don’t watch much tv at all so im not up on what the cool and must have TVs are. Ours is like 15 years old i think? Maybe these tv brands are cutting edge and Canadians will bend the knee without em?

I was only really putting it out there as it appeared some were calling BS on the US producing any TVs. But looks like they do.

 

[Loo.wii]

Not here, they (USFS) have just watched as our forest burns, starts at 3 acres and ends up burning 9000 acres as they watch it. Couple of years back they let a small lighting strike burn the Catalina mountains down. Lots of lost Pondersa pine lost for sure.

Yeah that’s a dumb move. As angry as some get about logging
It’s important as a combatant against wild fires.

 

[Fireflyfishing]

In my limited experience, when forest service land with excess sawtimber isn’t logged, it’s due to one of four factors.

1. The land is legally inaccessible (roadless or wilderness areas).

2. The terrain is inoperable for logging equipment. Steep slopes, wet soil, etc. This varies based on what equipment is available to local loggers.

3. Timber sales are held up by legal challenges. Spotted owl type stuff. Common in some parts of the country but not others.

4. No local market. No open sawmill within a reasonable distance.

Ramping up timber production on federal land would be doable. The challenge is making sure that what we’re doing meets the legal requirement that our timber harvests are sustainable over the long term.

My guess is the trade war will be done soon enough that ramping up federal timber harvests won’t make an impact.

Negative. You have to get around NEPA and the enviros in court.

Many of the mills have been shut down in the west because of what I wrote above. So, you may have a timber sale somewhere, but it’s not profitable because mills are nonexistent, or too far away.

You don’t just flip a switch and turn timber production back on.

 

[Idaboy]

Well, i don’t watch much tv at all so im not up on what the cool and must have TVs are. Ours is like 15 years old i think? Maybe these tv brands are cutting edge and Canadians will bend the knee without em?

I was only really putting it out there as it appeared some were calling BS on the US producing any TVs. But looks like they do.

Oh no, wasn't bashing, great info....

 

[IdahoElk]

Get you one and don’t look back. F the man.

View attachment 833067

Do you kiln dry the wood before using it?

 

[riversidejeep]

I’m no longer in the lumber business but was for my entire working life. Sold my lumberyards and retired 3 years ago. Did 100% of the building materials purchasing and retail pricing myself. So I’m little out of the loop, but know that this is really nothing new. We’ve had 20% tarrifs on Canadian lumber for long periods of time before. The wildfires probably haven’t done any more damage than a bad tornado year in the south. Housing starts affect lumber prices much more than all the wars, natural disasters, and political stunts combined. That should be your barometer to predict future pricing. Also, all of the lumber used in your house will make up MAYBE 10% of the total cost of the home. So even if lumber doubles in price, it’s not that big of an overall change in the total cost of the home. Having said all of that, building materials are generally the cheapest in the winter (because that’s when housing starts are the lowest). More years than not the market would have me filling my sheds this time of the year to cover my spring needs.

So:
1: Chill
2: If your lumberyard will let you buy it and not take delivery until you need it, probably yes.
3: If you have a place to store it and have a truck and a trailer and a forklift to move it to the job site when needed, maybe yes. But only if you know for certain it’s items you will use 100% of. Lumber has a shelf life, especially when stored improperly.

^^^^^^ This, If you are using Doug Fir to frame with don't buy until the day before you start building. Nothing worse than a 2x6 that has done a complete twist with a 12" split on both ends and so hard you can't drive a 16d galvie in it.

 

[Baddog]

It’s not that simple and the idea that forests aren’t being logged is a red herring. Around me forests are being cut faster than they will ever grow back. Loggers are passing on jobs left and right. They cut so much in the past few years they dropped the value of logs substantially

This isn’t happening in the USA

 

[doc holiday13]

Current Canada tariffs on USA goods:
Milk: 270%
Cheese: 245%
Butter: 298%
Chicken: 238%
Sausages: 69.9%
Barley seed: 57.8%
Bovine/meat: 26.5%
Cars: 25%
HVAC: 45%
Vacuums: 35%
Cable boxes: 35%
TVs: 45%
Steel: 25%
Aluminum: 45%
Copper: 48%

Who is screwing who?

I would conjecture that Canada needs us more than we need them. Despite the tariffs most of that can be processed here

 

[riversidejeep]

Not here, they (USFS) have just watched as our forest burns, starts at 3 acres and ends up burning 9000 acres as they watch it. Couple of years back they let a small lighting strike burn the Catalina mountains down. Lots of lost Pondersa pine lost for sure.

Same here in Northern Calif., We used to log the mature timber off the N.F. and there was no such thing as a fire getting out of control. Now for the last 40 or so years , No logging and sit back and watch MILLIONS of acres of prime mature timber go up in flames. They think that having a couple of hand crews go out and brush a mile of fire line is going to do anything, It's grown back just as dence the next year.

 

[cuerro viejo]

That’s how trade wars work. Are you surprised?

Am I surprised that NAFTA allowed US investors to grow the GDP of both Canada and d Mexico exponentially? NO, am I surprised that a country with GDP less the Texas wants to screw the country that helped build and currently helps defends it… Yes

 

[maufic]

I'm not really sure how the U.S. is getting screwed by other countries. Americans love to take advantage of a strong dollar and cheap foreign labor to get cheap goods, and then complain that nothing is made in america. The US decided a long time ago to focus on skilled labor jobs and send most unskilled labor offshore. This has helped maintain a relatively high standard of living in the US. If you want to bring most of the lost manufacturing jobs back to the US get ready to either screw over your own workers (to maintain low prices) or enjoy higher prices for everything you buy. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

[tony]

Mexico reach’s a deal for a month, which I’m sure will be long term
Canada will be next

 

[TaperPin]

Am I surprised that NAFTA allowed US investors to grow the GDP of both Canada and d Mexico exponentially? NO, am I surprised that a country with GDP less the Texas wants to screw the country that helped build and currently helps defends it… Yes

Billionaires like protectionist tariffs so they can make extra large profits selling at higher than normal prices and less than normal levels of competition.

Tax money from tariffs also takes some of the heat off of ultra wealthy tax rates at the expense of the working class.

When the ultra rich are convincing the middle class it’s a good idea, it’s because it makes them more money, not more money in our pockets. We’re the red line - the big corporations and ultra wealthy have been allowed to profit off our work by avoiding anti trust laws and taxes.

 

[loganwayne]

Most of the dimensional lumber (8’ 2x4s at least not like i look at all of it) at the HD by me is stamped “Made in the USA”. We should promote more of that Nationwide.

all the treated comes from the us. google says that 25% of our wood comes from Canada. problem is you cant just make up that 25% by cutting more trees.. well you can for the short term but it takes a generation to grow out the pines in the southeast. most of the hardwoods that need to be logged are just used for veneer wood, and trim

 

[Wrongside]

Mexico reach’s a deal for a month, which I’m sure will be long term
Canada will be next

That’s good news about Mexico.

Hopefully you’re right about an agreement between Canada & the US, but I won’t hold my breathe. Were being run into the ground by a lame duck, substitute circus clown with an authoritarian bent. He’s enjoying ‘unifying’ Canada against DJT and trying to use it as an opportunity to salvage the Liberal party’s popularity.

 

[Forestryguy]

Mexico reach’s a deal for a month, which I’m sure will be long term
Canada will be next

Is this official or speculation? A lot of the world has realized we really aren’t the supper power we use to be. They are more willing to push on the fence much more, and the fence isn’t as tight as it use to be.

Things to remember are that both of highest influencers right now are business men first, one has been successful the other a failure and living off his fathers fortune and legacy. Both have been aligned with the political party that they are not part of, one for much longer than the other. US history is repeating itself from The early 1900s with a bit of pre WW2 Germany politics also.