Long range weather forcasts

Marley33

FNG
Joined
Jul 13, 2020
Messages
17
Location
Wisconsin
What's your go to weather sites for long range forcasts? I know we all sit at home waiting for D-day of the big hunt and are anxiously checking weather and making last minute gear changes. What's your go to weather app?
 

Johnny Tyndall

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Nov 17, 2021
Messages
217
Location
MT
I go straight to NOAA and read the forecast discussion (you have to dig around for it). The forecasters are pretty good about describing what to expect and how certain they are about it.

That said, beyond some number of days (7?) weather prediction breaks down. Instead you're looking at statistical distributions rather than a projection from current conditions. Different kind of problem. NOAA has a climate prediction center if you want to guess at more than 7 days.

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taskswap

WKR
Joined
Oct 6, 2021
Messages
491
What's your go to weather sites for long range forcasts? I know we all sit at home waiting for D-day of the big hunt and are anxiously checking weather and making last minute gear changes. What's your go to weather app?
I live in Colorado. I don't trust the weather forecast for TOMORROW. They were saying it would be mid to high 60s this week and overnight lows in the 40s. Today when I woke up it was 31 out and the high was 59. It was also supposed to be mostly sunny all week, but we had about 10 minutes of hail so...
 

GSPHUNTER

WKR
Joined
Jun 30, 2020
Messages
4,391
I find any forecaster any further out than four days is not very reliable. After planning trips in advance based on ten day forecast I had to cancel because there were drastic differences in actual condition when it came time to go.
 

5MilesBack

"DADDY"
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Messages
16,092
Location
Colorado Springs
I use my past experience as the forecaster. I prepare for everything and just go. Several years ago during first rifle I checked the local forecast for my hunting area the day before the season started. It said "clear and sunny for the next 5 days". The next morning I'm up on this ridge and I saw this totally black system on the horizon heading my way. It started snowing so I hunkered down not expecting much because of the forecast. When 8" had piled up in very short order and visibility was still very low, I made a run for the truck. By the time I got to camp there was a foot of snow already. I never trust the forecasts for the mountains.
 

TaperPin

WKR
Joined
Jul 12, 2023
Messages
2,976
Forecasts mean very little, except for major weather events like cold fronts bringing big changes. I like NOAA with national maps showing fronts and precip - looking at daily forecasts doesn’t train your brain like watching fronts move across the west. I’ve called in with a family emergency when a narrow band of snow following a front passes through - ideal hunting conditions to get up high before the snow. Lol

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Yoder

WKR
Joined
Jan 12, 2021
Messages
1,585
I've found they can barely get the weather correct tomorrow let alone next week.
 
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