Liberation Day

[CorbLand]

Here's my .02 cents from a manufacturing perspective, considering I own a machine shop...

The tariffs will have a positive effect on manufacturing in the US. I think everything should have been put in effect in a "ramp-up" schedule instead all at one time, but that's just me.

Since the 1980's the US has had a steady decline in manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs affect the economy in a way that other jobs do not. Every one job in direct manufacturing creates 2-2.5 jobs downstream. The US has let manufacturing dwindle to record lows, as more and more companies went to offshore production.

The tariffs will cause a push for more manufacturing in the US... Which is a good thing, but the US has shit all over manufacturing for so long that it won't be able to support a large increase. Our local trade schools used to graduate 20-30 people thru the first year of machinists trade school, and 15-20 of the second year. This year it looks to be 8 in the first year, and 3 in the second year.

Companies will scramble to move production to the US... but there's a huge lack of skilled labor to support it.

Ken

As someone that owns a shop. Do you think it will actually employ people at good wages or will the vast majority of the jobs be automated and/or low wage?

 

[Poser]

One thing I haven’t seen talked about is everyone keeps saying this is going to bring manufacturing back home and how when we did a lot of manufacturing it created lots of jobs.

One thing that I can’t help but think is that the time period of when that was true and now are so vastly different, will it be the same?

Automation was virtually nonexistent back then. Now a computer can do the work of 10 people. Is this going to bring jobs back or is it going to bring a whole bunch of robots? If it does bring jobs back are they going to pay enough to even support a person, let alone a family? Everyone has seen the “meet your replacement” memes when cashiers demand higher pay.

The cynical side of me says that the vast majority of these tariffs are being done to prop up a commercial real estate market that has been teetering on a cliff since Covid.

I just don’t see how bringing manufacturing back to the US is going to help anything unless we all decide that paying living wages, even for basic work, is important.

I started to type something out related to this yesterday, but it got too long and I discarded it. I think you are correct that any new investment in American manufacturing will rely heavily upon automation. Sure, there will be some amount of new jobs in robotics and engineering and that may very well be good for some members of Gen Z and the upcoming Gen Alpha coming out of STEM programs. Younger and Elder Millennials? Gen X? There will be some white collar management and sales jobs in there, but In terms of blue collar jobs for unskilled Millennials and Gen X? I'm sure there will be a handful who benefit in some way, but the idea of millions going to work in factories is probably a pipe dream. A large labor force in the style of Rosie the Riveter is simply not needed and its nots going to happen. We could end up as a country that does a lot more manufacturing than we do now, but we won't end up as a society of manufacturers because so much of that work will be performed through automation. Its a nice thought and all, but unclear if the pain is worth the gain.

 

[chanson_roland]

One thing I haven’t seen talked about is everyone keeps saying this is going to bring manufacturing back home and how when we did a lot of manufacturing it created lots of jobs.

One thing that I can’t help but think is that the time period of when that was true and now are so vastly different, will it be the same?

Automation was virtually nonexistent back then. Now a computer can do the work of 10 people. Is this going to bring jobs back or is it going to bring a whole bunch of robots? If it does bring jobs back are they going to pay enough to even support a person, let alone a family? Everyone has seen the “meet your replacement” memes when cashiers demand higher pay.

The cynical side of me says that the vast majority of these tariffs are being done to prop up a commercial real estate market that has been teetering on a cliff since Covid.

I just don’t see how bringing manufacturing back to the US is going to help anything unless we all decide that paying living wages, even for basic work, is important.

Quick aside on Commercial Real Estate.

Two things I learned when researching RTO for a former gig.

1. Below a certain occupancy level, companies have to mark owned real estate *down*, as an impaired asset on the balance sheet.

2. Below that same occupancy level, insurance costs can be higher.

So, in my opinion, some of the push to get people back in the office is to shore up the balance sheets of commercial property owners, as well as F5000 companies that own the real estate outright.

More butts in seats => higher enterprise value.

 

[eddielasvegas]

Still looking for those tariffs on Russia, for example...

Well, 1600+ sanctions did absolutely nothing over the past 3+ years. Oh, and the sanctions exceptions list a mile long.

I do agree no country should be immune just some get a TRB (Tariff Reduction Break), which it looks like is happening. I'm not going to 2nd guess DJT on this as he's doing what has been needed in our gubment for decades.

I am all for Liberation Day. Short term pain for long term gain with the intent to establish our position in the world as the largest economy and military power, and stop those countries and entities from feeding off the USA teat with nothing in return.


Eddie

 

[Dos Perros]

You want to PM me the details on one of those jobs?

Can you pass a drug test?

It's $35/hr this year going to $37+ next. Three weeks vacay, another week of sick time (goes to 4 weeks after a few years), 4% to your 401k for nothing with an additional match offered, high deductible health care, HSA contribution $1250/year.

There is another plant opening up across town set to employ 4000 folks that drove up our rates to remain competitive for labor.

 

[HuntHarder]

I do in fact know what a Ponzi scheme is and it has a rather specific set of parameters to meet the definition.

Ponzi schemes rely on new investors to pay off old investors.

Social Security doesn't rely on new entrants to pay off existing beneficiaries. It's funded primarily through payroll taxes from current workers. While the ratio of workers to retirees is a factor in its solvency, it's not the defining characteristic of a Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes offer unsustainable returns. Social Security doesn't promise unsustainable returns. Benefits are determined by a formula based on earnings history and are adjusted for inflation. While the system faces funding challenges, it's not designed to generate returns beyond what's promised.

Ponzi schemes are fraudulent. Social Security is a government program established by law. It's not a secret or fraudulent operation designed to deceive investors.

Calling it a Ponzi scheme is a flawed comparison that misrepresents the purpose of Social Security.

Research: The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program

Social Security Administration Research, Statistics, and Policy Analysis

www.ssa.gov

SS is offering unsustainable returns. Without new "investors", SS will be gone before all the current "investors" are paid out what they are owed.

 

[CorbLand]

I started to type something out related to this yesterday, but it got too long and I discarded it. I think you are correct that any new investment in American manufacturing will rely heavily upon automation. Sure, there will be some amount of new jobs in robotics and engineering and that may very well be good for some members of Gen Z and the upcoming Gen Alpha coming out of STEM programs. Younger and Elder Millennials? Gen X? There will be some white collar management and sales jobs in there, but In terms of blue collar jobs for unskilled Millennials and Gen X? I'm sure there will be a handful who benefit in some way, but the idea of millions going to work in factories is probably a pipe dream. A large labor force in the style of Rosie the Riveter is simply not needed and its nots going to happen. We could end up as a country that does a lot more manufacturing than we do now, but we won't end up as a society of manufacturers because so much of that work will be performed through automation. Its a nice thought and all, but unclear if the pain is worth the gain.

I think it is doable but its going to take a massive shift in the way that we think when it comes to jobs and what they pay.

 

[CorbLand]

Can you pass a drug test?

It's $35/hr this year going to $37+ next. Three weeks vacay, another week of sick time (goes to 4 weeks after a few years), 4% to your 401k for nothing with an additional match offered, high deductible health care, HSA contribution $1250/year.

There is another plant opening up across town set to employ 4000 folks that drove up our rates to remain competitive for labor.

You going to post a link to where people can apply or just continue to tell everyone how good it is?

Currently I am not interested. I make 35 an hour and my benefits smash those but we are facing layoffs so I could be looking in the next couple of months. Yes, I can piss clean.


Just throwing this out there, for all the bitching I see about how people cant find workers for these high paying, no experience jobs...people dont seem to ever post anything about where they are and how to apply for them.

 

[HuntHarder]

Company I work for also hires guys off the streets with no education requirements, other than High school and a CDL. First year, you will break 100k. Can be tough work, but pays well with good benefits. Our 2025 hiring class had weak competition imo. Lets hope they all pan out and make thru the end of their apprenticeship.

 

[Poser]

Research: The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program

Social Security Administration Research, Statistics, and Policy Analysis

www.ssa.gov

SS is offering unsustainable returns. Without new "investors", SS will be gone before all the current "investors" are paid out what they are owed.

But the money that the currently working "investors" are paying into to SS is actually going into SS, correct? The money isn't being routed elsewhere to a offshore bank account with the investors be given fake reports. Therefore, its not a Ponzi scheme.

Funding sustainability issues? yes.
Ponzi Scheme? No.

 

[HuntHarder]

I do in fact know what a Ponzi scheme is and it has a rather specific set of parameters to meet the definition.

Ponzi schemes rely on new investors to pay off old investors.

Social Security doesn't rely on new entrants to pay off existing beneficiaries. It's funded primarily through payroll taxes from current workers. While the ratio of workers to retirees is a factor in its solvency, it's not the defining characteristic of a Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes offer unsustainable returns. Social Security doesn't promise unsustainable returns. Benefits are determined by a formula based on earnings history and are adjusted for inflation. While the system faces funding challenges, it's not designed to generate returns beyond what's promised.

Ponzi schemes are fraudulent. Social Security is a government program established by law. It's not a secret or fraudulent operation designed to deceive investors.

Calling it a Ponzi scheme is a flawed comparison that misrepresents the purpose of Social Security.

Just using your definition.... Literally your 2nd bullet point says "offers unsustainable returns" No need to move the goal posts and talk about offshore accounts.

 

[HuntHarder]

I am not sure if Tariffs will be good or bad, but I am sure that we needed to make some drastic changes to what has been currently going on. Doing, or operating the same way for years and hoping for different results, has not netted any.

On the surface, it does seem odd and unfair that we are charged tariffs by other countries without enacting our own. I would sure like to think the vast majority of Americans would agree with that. If not, I would be interested to learn more and understand why we should pay them and they should not.

 

[TaperPin]

Can you pass a drug test?

It's $35/hr this year going to $37+ next. Three weeks vacay, another week of sick time (goes to 4 weeks after a few years), 4% to your 401k for nothing with an additional match offered, high deductible health care, HSA contribution $1250/year.

There is another plant opening up across town set to employ 4000 folks that drove up our rates to remain competitive for labor.

You must have people moving from all over the Midwest for those jobs. Zip Recruiter says journeyman electrician in Kansas are making $30/hr.

 

[Poser]

Just using your definition.... Literally your 2nd bullet point says "offers unsustainable returns" No need to move the goal posts and talk about offshore accounts.

Dude.... Social Security does not meet the definition of a Ponzi Scheme. Its that simple.

If I ask you to invest $5 in my company with the promise of a return of $10 and I go spend your $5 on a milkshake at A&W, send you some reports for a few weeks showing that your $5 has turned into $6, then $7 then $8.50, meanwhile I'm finding more investors and buying more milkshakes and sending more fake reports, then that is a Ponzi scheme.

The money you have paid into SS has actually gone into SS. It may face problems, it may need to be reevaluated, but its not a Ponzi scheme.

 

[HuntHarder]

Easy bud... No need to get spun up. Good luck on your hunts DUDE.

 

[Dos Perros]

You must have people moving from all over the Midwest for those jobs. Zip Recruiter says journeyman electrician in Kansas are making $30/hr.

We can't get people to pass a drug test most times.

 

[Predator_SD]

What vehicle do you drive, where are the alternators for it manufactures (including the components) and what are you going to do when you need a new one?

Retool Detroit Factories and build em there.

I realize people don’t like to actually work anymore or they only want to work a white collar job but that simply isn’t sustainable. If it were this country wouldn’t be going bankrupt buying EVERTHING from foreign nations while selling them nothing.

So the American people put Trump back in the White House to start down the long road to fix all this. You’re going to have to just deal with it you guys had your chance and made it worse.

 

[HuntHarder]

You must have people moving from all over the Midwest for those jobs. Zip Recruiter says journeyman electrician in Kansas are making $30/hr.

Our grunts get hired at 30$ an hour day one 1. You would think the competition for those jobs would be intense. Over the last 5 years, it has steadily been on the decline with the "talent pool" being less impressive each year. Used to have over a 1000 I am involved in some of the testing and then evaluate new hires daily. We used to have over a 1000 applicants for maybe 20 jobs less than 10 years ago. This year, we ended up with 500ish applicants for 24 jobs.

 

[TaperPin]

How many businesses are going to sign a year lease, double their overhead in machinery, and sign big contracts without any clarity in raw material costs months from now, or even a guarantee the tariffs will remain in place. Chaos leadership makes that a big gamble. The first quarter will be over soon and there is still no clarity.

Politics doesn’t stop at the presidential election. Next year the GOP is probably going to lose the house because of higher prices and chaos. Then what happens to tariffs - the Senate already has enough Republicans voting against tariffs to pass the anti tariff bill for Canada. It can’t make it through the House today, but it complicates business decisions if tariffs are removed next year.

 

[Predator_SD]

We’ve been getting ripped off by these guys long enough, but they insist on protesting nonetheless.

Maybe the administration should hire a junior high school kid who’s good at geography to proofread any new ideas for obvious flaws.

View attachment 862373

You CANNOT be taken seriously if you cite RollingStone.

Of all the great music ever made they have these songs in their top 10

1. Aretha Franklin “Respect”, really? This is the greatest song in history???!

2. Public Enemy “Fight the Power”, REALLY? Yeah i’m sure everyone is still spinning their beloved Public Enemy Vinyl to this day.

6. Marvin Gaye “What’s Going On”, Really, 6th greatest song ever??? Isn’t thai elevator music?

7. Missy Elliot “Get Ur Freak On”, COME ON MAN! Should this song even be in the top 500 much less the 7th greatest song of all time!

Yet, you cite RollingStone as some sort of authority on anything???? They don’t even know what good music is and that’s supposed to be their specialty!