Liberation Day

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I am older so I do remember what the US looked like pre NAFTA and China being allowed into the WTO. You can drive across this nation now date the last major capital investments in most towns to when this started.

Yes, not everyone wants to be a factory worker, but factories and manufacturing are the hub to most of the ecosystem. The factory has to be designed and built, the workers fed and housed, power, transportation, raw materials, and on and on.

The other big issue is that innovation follows the manufacturing. When this started, one of the ways it was sold was that the US (and West) would continue to lead in development and engineering, just the low skill factory work would offshore. Now this is being lost as well. Apple may have already been surpassed in phone technology and chip design and manufacturing is next.
 
I still haven't seen an answer from any of the- supposed- media experts on the question;
If Tariffs are so bad for the economy, then why do other countries place tariffs on US goods?

The fact that other countries impose tariffs on US goods doesn't negate the argument that tariffs are generally bad for the economy. It's a complex issue with several factors at play:

Retaliation
Protectionism
Revenue Generation
Political Considerations

While other countries use tariffs, it's usually not because they believe tariffs are inherently beneficial for the economy (which is Trump's position he "loves" tariffs "such a beautiful word"). Instead, it's often a response to tariffs imposed by other nations, a tool for protectionism, or a means of political leverage. The overall economic impact of tariffs is generally considered negative by many economists due to reduced trade, higher prices for consumers, and potential trade wars.

In short, the existence of tariffs in other countries doesn't invalidate the economic arguments against their widespread use. The impetus for Trump's tariffs is different than virtually every other set of tariffs in existence against the US.

By their own admission, the administration took their "best guess" on appropriate retaliatory tarriffs because dissecting rates on individual products was "too complicated." As a result, we not only end up with disproportionate tariffs, we also end up now paying tariffs on the likes of bananas and coffee -neither of which the US can produce on a large, commercial scale.

It is ultimately a HUGE gamble. There is a chance it could pay off, but not many people like the odds. And seeing how Trump has packed his administration with people that only tell him what he wants to hear, its unclear whether Trump is even in possession of the proper analysis to make this gamble. Ultimately, a president needs people informing him of things he may not want to hear.
I, for one, question whether Donald Trump actually understands tariffs.
 
Everyone is focused on the market RIGHT NOW. Do you think that DOGE finding mega money going to frivolous places was used honestly, or do you think that a great amount of it was nefariously applied to the markets to fluff stocks and make those with inside info rich.

think gamestop. It BLEW UP and has a business model that is a joke at best. Every storefront looks like a typical struggling mini mall business......yet they have gazillions of dollars.

We taxpayers have been screwed for so long that we think it's normal now.

In my 50 years I've watched such a decline in industry, morals, schools and trade that I seriously don't know how it even got this bad.....and if it continued on the same pace for today's youth, we could be crushed by New Guinea.
 
Here's a pic of the megafactory BYD is building in China:

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This factory will be 50 SQ MILES, the size of San Francisco.

I repeat: China is building a high end factory the size of one of our larger cities.

BYD has already surpassed Tesla in auto sales, and is making cars at 1/2 the price of other EV manufacturers, and higher quality

The people working here come from extreme poverty in the interior of China, which has a population of 500M poor farmers in the interior to draw upon. That's who's moving to these industrial cities, and working for peanuts 16 hours a day. It's better than their alternative, which is to be a subsistence farmer in the interior of China.

Take a look at this video of some of these cars, reviewed by autobloggers who went to Alaska to drive them:

As a function of scale and input cost, No way in hell the USA can compete long-term in this sector except in specialty niches.

Tariffs at this scale won't work now, and they didn't work 100 years ago when McKinley tried it.

BTW, how'd that turn out for Pres. McKinley?
I worked for the government during covid and the amount of $$$ that we spent at BYD for GARBAGE products would make you sick.

I believe that taxpayer dollars should stay in the states unless there is no option within reason.

Integral designs and other domestic companies were trying to compete.....but we went to byd. Byd sent us millions of knock off products that failed qc and were destroyed.

Total sham company built by tax dollars.
 
Modern manufacturing is much different than it ever was before NAFTA. The amount of labor is greatly reduced - the decline in labor does not mean we don’t produce things - manufacturing has kept fairly constant, only labor has gone down. The days of a “big” machine shop with 100 highly skilled machinists is gone forever. Hundreds of CNC machines need a handful of guys to load, push a button and check back in an hour. The photo is part of a 300 machine operation. That’s the face of making parts. One of the kids in our family works in a place like this as a machine operator, for $10 over what McDonalds pays.
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The ol' Elon Musk definition of a ponzi scheme, eh?

Do you actually know what a ponzi scheme is, because it ain't that.
As a turn of phrase for an unsustainable system that will eventually collapse under its own weight, well that is exactly what social security is. It is closer to Jonathan Swift's "A Modest Proposal" though.

However, do you know what a Ponzi scheme is? Do you know how social security is currently financed? By definition it is using funds from new investors to pay earlier investors, which is exactly what social security is doing at present. Regardless of designed intent, in function, it currently fits with the exception that rather than relying on paying early investors well, it relies on the full might of the federal government to insure continued financing.
 
One thing I haven’t seen talked about is everyone keeps saying this is going to bring manufacturing back home and how when we did a lot of manufacturing it created lots of jobs.

One thing that I can’t help but think is that the time period of when that was true and now are so vastly different, will it be the same?

Automation was virtually nonexistent back then. Now a computer can do the work of 10 people. Is this going to bring jobs back or is it going to bring a whole bunch of robots? If it does bring jobs back are they going to pay enough to even support a person, let alone a family? Everyone has seen the “meet your replacement” memes when cashiers demand higher pay.

The cynical side of me says that the vast majority of these tariffs are being done to prop up a commercial real estate market that has been teetering on a cliff since Covid.

I just don’t see how bringing manufacturing back to the US is going to help anything unless we all decide that paying living wages, even for basic work, is important.
 
I'm sure any of you that have tried to hire anyone for an entry level or operator position in manufacturing lately will be a little nervous as I am.

We're going to have to stop the handouts for people to be willing to work for anything. It's not exclusive to the company I work for, I've talked to other plants or managers and it's across the board. The generation coming up doesn't want to work and aren't capable of something as simple as showing up.

I hope these tariffs do generate higher paying American jobs or bring jobs back to the US. I am just a little skeptical on how ready the workforce is to do the actual work necessary. The general public will have to have the will to see this process through if this approach is even valid. Half the country will be against anything done by the other side no matter what it is. Time will only tell.
 
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One thing I haven’t seen talked about is everyone keeps saying this is going to bring manufacturing back home and how when we did a lot of manufacturing it created lots of jobs.

One thing that I can’t help but think is that the time period of when that was true and now are so vastly different, will it be the same?

Automation was virtually nonexistent back then. Now a computer can do the work of 10 people. Is this going to bring jobs back or is it going to bring a whole bunch of robots? If it does bring jobs back are they going to pay enough to even support a person, let alone a family? Everyone has seen the “meet your replacement” memes when cashiers demand higher pay.

The cynical side of me says that the vast majority of these tariffs are being done to prop up a commercial real estate market that has been teetering on a cliff since Covid.

I just don’t see how bringing manufacturing back to the US is going to help anything unless we all decide that paying living wages, even for basic work, is important.
There is also the higher cost aspect of made in America that will just continue to drive inflation.
 
I'm sure any of you that have tried to hire anyone for an entry level or operator position in manufacturing lately will be a little nervous as I am.

We're going to have to stop the handouts for people to be willing to work for anything. It's not exclusive to the company I work for, I've talked to other plants or managers and it's across the board. The generation coming up doesn't want to work and aren't capable of something as simple as showing up.

I hope these tariffs do generate higher paying American jobs or bring jobs back to the US. I am just a little skeptical on how ready the workforce is to do the actual work necessary. The general public will have to have the will to see this process through if this approach is even valid. Half the country will be against anything done by the other side no matter what it is. Time will only tell.
Quit giving money to people who won't work.....that's the start.
 
Modern manufacturing is much different than it ever was before NAFTA. The amount of labor is greatly reduced - the decline in labor does not mean we don’t produce things - manufacturing has kept fairly constant, only labor has gone down. The days of a “big” machine shop with 100 highly skilled machinists is gone forever. Hundreds of CNC machines need a handful of guys to load, push a button and check back in an hour. The photo is part of a 300 machine operation. That’s the face of making parts. One of the kids in our family works in a place like this as a machine operator, for $10 over what McDonalds pays.
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What's the point you are trying to make here?

My plant hires kids fresh out of high school with no relevant skills starting at $80k/year, which is more than the household median income around here. That's safe, dependable, low stress, great benefits type work.
 
I worked for the government during covid and the amount of $$$ that we spent at BYD for GARBAGE products would make you sick.

I believe that taxpayer dollars should stay in the states unless there is no option within reason.

Integral designs and other domestic companies were trying to compete.....but we went to byd. Byd sent us millions of knock off products that failed qc and were destroyed.

Total sham company built by tax dollars.
Not sure what you bought from BYD during Covid. I would assume they used some of their factory capacity to make a quick buck. Just like tons of other companies world wide.

Their core business, however is cars.

Here, in 2025, they're making some of the best EVs on the planet at the best price point. If we're talking about trying to stimulate the auto industry via tariff or other trade policy, US policy makers have to take them into account.

If you see my previous response elsewhere about possible "solutions", I point to the Toyota/GM NUMMI Joint Venture as a model where we'd partner with companies like BYD to import a partially designed vehicle at a lower price point than we could do domestically, then finish the work with US manufacturers, and try to lock in the IP in the domestic US (i.e, not allow export of the finished product back to China to be reverse engineered).



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As a turn of phrase for an unsustainable system that will eventually collapse under its own weight, well that is exactly what social security is. It is closer to Jonathan Swift's "A Modest Proposal" though.

However, do you know what a Ponzi scheme is? Do you know how social security is currently financed? By definition it is using funds from new investors to pay earlier investors, which is exactly what social security is doing at present. Regardless of designed intent, in function, it currently fits with the exception that rather than relying on paying early investors well, it relies on the full might of the federal government to insure continued financing.

I do in fact know what a Ponzi scheme is and it has a rather specific set of parameters to meet the definition.

Ponzi schemes rely on new investors to pay off old investors.

Social Security doesn't rely on new entrants to pay off existing beneficiaries. It's funded primarily through payroll taxes from current workers. While the ratio of workers to retirees is a factor in its solvency, it's not the defining characteristic of a Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes offer unsustainable returns. Social Security doesn't promise unsustainable returns. Benefits are determined by a formula based on earnings history and are adjusted for inflation. While the system faces funding challenges, it's not designed to generate returns beyond what's promised.

Ponzi schemes are fraudulent. Social Security is a government program established by law. It's not a secret or fraudulent operation designed to deceive investors.

Calling it a Ponzi scheme is a flawed comparison that misrepresents the purpose of Social Security.
 
Here's my .02 cents from a manufacturing perspective, considering I own a machine shop...

The tariffs will have a positive effect on manufacturing in the US. I think everything should have been put in effect in a "ramp-up" schedule instead all at one time, but that's just me.

Since the 1980's the US has had a steady decline in manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs affect the economy in a way that other jobs do not. Every one job in direct manufacturing creates 2-2.5 jobs downstream. The US has let manufacturing dwindle to record lows, as more and more companies went to offshore production.

The tariffs will cause a push for more manufacturing in the US... Which is a good thing, but the US has shit all over manufacturing for so long that it won't be able to support a large increase. Our local trade schools used to graduate 20-30 people thru the first year of machinists trade school, and 15-20 of the second year. This year it looks to be 8 in the first year, and 3 in the second year.

Companies will scramble to move production to the US... but there's a huge lack of skilled labor to support it.

Ken
 
What's the point you are trying to make here?

My plant hires kids fresh out of high school with no relevant skills starting at $80k/year, which is more than the household median income around here. That's safe, dependable, low stress, great benefits type work.
Isn’t the entire point of the tariffs to return our level of manufacturing to a previous level. The entire reason behind it all. We make as much as we ever did, we just don’t employ as many people.

If your plant is paying $80k with zero experience doing anything, what in gods name are you complaining about? You and I both know that’s not the case or there would be people from all over the country camped out to sign up for these $40/hr jobs.

Since you live in Kansas, those kids are DEFINITELY not getting $80k a year.
 
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