Liberation Day

[average]

Well inform us.

It's already been covered, this has been represented as reciprocal with most assuming tariff for tariff. It's not. It's simply the trade deficit divided by imports to give "what they're tariffing the United States". We are then tariffing them at half that rate.
If anyone has taken time to try to investigate actual tariff numbers you quickly find out it's a complex ordeal. If you want to dig into tariff numbers and find sources showing anything close to the claims I'd be glad to read it because I'm not finding it.
If you truly believe trade imports and exports must be equal there's no discussion to be had. IMO that opinion isn't compatible with reality
The other issue is labor. Constant claims about the lazy entitled etc.While this one is debatable a dive into unemployment and workforce participation rates doesn't seem to support the existence of a large "parasite class". Workforce participation peaked in 98/00 and was at or below current rates from the 70s back to the beginning of available data. We're only a few percentage points from peak participation. Many are back at home because it's cheaper to raise your own kids these days. Homeschooling is trendy. Tradwife/stay at home Mom is cool again. That doesn't even get into our unfortunate reliance on immigrant labor

 

[Kimber7man]

Three things will happen:
1. Farmers will lose money again this year because exports will go down, taking commodities with them. So farms will be sold because mortgages can’t be paid, and the big companies and billionaires will buy the farmland up. Big money wins.
2. Everyone will be paying a lot more for everything so Trump will put pressure on Fed to lower interest rates. Big money wins.
3. Everyone will be paying a lot more for everything so Trump will put pressure on Senate and Congress to lower taxes. Big money wins.

TLDR: Trump causes havoc and then declares himself the savior.

 

[rodney482]

sky is falling

DOW is still +5000 last 24 months and +14000 in last 60 months

 

[HuntHarder]

It's already been covered, this has been represented as reciprocal with most assuming tariff for tariff. It's not. It's simply the trade deficit divided by imports to give "what they're tariffing the United States". We are then tariffing them at half that rate.
If anyone has taken time to try to investigate actual tariff numbers you quickly find out it's a complex ordeal. If you want to dig into tariff numbers and find sources showing anything close to the claims I'd be glad to read it because I'm not finding it.
If you truly believe trade imports and exports must be equal there's no discussion to be had. IMO that opinion isn't compatible with reality
The other issue is labor. Constant claims about the lazy entitled etc.While this one is debatable a dive into unemployment and workforce participation rates doesn't seem to support the existence of a large "parasite class". Workforce participation peaked in 98/00 and was at or below current rates from the 70s back to the beginning of available data. We're only a few percentage points from peak participation. Many are back at home because it's cheaper to raise your own kids these days. Homeschooling is trendy. Tradwife/stay at home Mom is cool again. That doesn't even get into our unfortunate reliance on immigrant labor

Have you found any credible sources to prove your claim of trade deficit vs. Tariff? I'd be interested in reading if you have.

 

[cowdisciple]

Have you found any credible sources to prove your claim of trade deficit vs. Tariff? I'd be interested in reading if you have.

There are links to analysis from the National Review and the Cato Institute in posts 363 and 364.

 

[P Carter]

Have you found any credible sources to prove your claim of trade deficit vs. Tariff? I'd be interested in reading if you have.

I hesitate to jump in here, but this is beyond dispute—it’s right on the website of the office of the US trade representative. Says right there that the “reciprocal tariffs” are calculated as the tariffs necessary to balance trade deficits, and that this assumes trade deficits are driven by both tariff and non-tariff factors.

It also Notes that calculated individual tariffs would be complicated, but can be approximated by the rate necessary to drive trade deficits to zero.

The webpage has a formula that looks complicated, but is just as described by the prior poster. Many, many sources are also reporting and confirming, and the reports are consistent with the statements made on the website.

Presidential Tariff Actions

For the Presidential actions taken pursuant to his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), see below:

ustr.gov

 

[HuntHarder]

There are links to analysis from the National Review and the Cato Institute in posts 363 and 364.

Did you read those? I don't see much except someone saying something. Very few #'s in those. Seems like more opinions vs. Facts

 

[average]

Have you found any credible sources to prove your claim of trade deficit vs. Tariff? I'd be interested in reading if you have.

I deleted my initial reply because of unnecessary sarcasm. It's been released by the administration that this is how it was calculated. They released a equation that attempted to make it look more complicated with Greek symbols. When you plug in the variables it simplifies to deficit divided by total goods

 

[cowdisciple]

Did you read those? I don't see much except someone saying something. Very few #'s in those. Seems like more opinions vs. Facts

I mean, what kind of facts are you looking for? The indisputable piece of evidence is the reaction of the market.

I can only imagine the fury if a Democratic president had imposed a policy that led directly and incontrovertibly to an immediate 11% (and counting) drop in the S&P 500.

 

[HuntHarder]

I mean, what kind of facts are you looking for? The indisputable piece of evidence is the reaction of the market.

I can only imagine the fury if a Democratic president had imposed a policy that led directly and incontrovertibly to an immediate 11% (and counting) drop in the S&P 500.

I'm not a right or left guy. I'm looking for #'s. Like China charges us 1billion$ worth of tariffs a year on 50 billion worth of trade and we charge them x amount on x amount..

 

[HuntHarder]

Reject your own eyes and ears

No need for your comments.. im trying to actually get to #'s not feelings

 

[Poser]

I'm not a right or left guy. I'm looking for #'s. Like China charges us 1billion$ worth of tariffs a year on 50 billion worth of trade and we charge them x amount on x amount..

Here is an example of the AI prompts that appear to get the same exact results as the admin's tarriffs, with speculation that Trump's team used AI to generate these #s.

 

[NDGuy]

No need for your comments.. im trying to actually get to #'s not feelings

Folks gave several sources already, and is all over the news cycle what are you looking for?

 

[average]

No need for your comments.. im trying to actually get to #'s not feelings

I will dig into actual tariffs again later tonight. Much easier to look at on the computer. Understand many here are frustrated about this being misrepresented and are taking your questioning as support for the calculation. I initially did but am trying to give you the benefit of the doubt.

 

[HuntHarder]

Folks gave several sources already, and is all over the news cycle what are you looking for?

I read those, have you? I literally said looking for #'s. All you have brought to this is emotion and feelings. Tell us how you've struggled for years, even tho you've done "everything right." At what point are you going to try something different? Hard to feel sorry for you...

@Poser thanks for that AI link. That helps explain it a little better than I previously did. Seems like a complicated issue with really no exact way to come up with a100% accurate #'s.

 

[keystone112]

Tariffs don’t scare me.

$36T in debt and doing nothing about it does.

 

[NDGuy]

Tell us how you've struggled for years, even tho you've done "everything right." At what point are you going to try something different? Hard to feel sorry for you...

Don’t remember needing your sympathy, I’ll manage just fine. Just giving a real world experience for perspective instead of shit you read in the news.

 

[P Carter]

I'm not a right or left guy. I'm looking for #'s. Like China charges us 1billion$ worth of tariffs a year on 50 billion worth of trade and we charge them x amount on x amount..

The admin's own website literally says that the "recipricol tariff" rates are designed to drive trade deficits to zero.

The tariffs imposed by the US are *not* based on the tariffs charged by the other country. They are calculated to drive the trade deficit to zero, and are calculated based on the trade deficit with that country, not the tariffs of that country:

While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero. If trade deficits are persistent because of tariff and non-tariff policies and fundamentals, then the tariff rate consistent with offsetting these policies and fundamentals is reciprocal and fair.

Presidential Tariff Actions

For the Presidential actions taken pursuant to his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), see below:

ustr.gov

Edit: To be clear, if you're looking for numbers, as in the numbers associated with tariffs the other countries impose on U.S. goods, you will not find those numbers because they are not the basis for the U.S.'s "recipricol tariffs." The basis for the U.S's tariffs are the trade deficits, calculated as Poser and others note above.

 

[Teodoro]

Here's a story with numbers for China and the official formula explained:

Trump's tariff formula explained: How rates were determined for each country

The tariff rates were calculated using exports and imports from each country, a look at the formula.

www.usatoday.com

It really is just based on trade deficits. The assumption apparently is that if we have a trade deficit, the other country must be doing something illicit. And if we have a trade surplus, we put a 10% tariff on them, though I haven't seen any credible attempt at a justification for those.

 

[MountainTracker]

I can’t keep up with this thread, too fast.




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