Kenai River King Salmon - Circling the Drain

[william schmaltz]

Another, in my opinion, large problem with delaying sockeye netting is that the bulk of the big kings needed for escapement are showing up later in the season, late July and well into August. Some say this is due to the run timing shifting while others say that it is due to the early part of the run having been decimated over the years.

I’ve held that theory for sockeye and it really seems to be evident the last 5 or so years. For the last several years it’s EO openings 2-3 times a week for set and drift fleet the first 2-3 weeks in July. Then it’s escapement panic closures resulting in 4/5 of the in river fish being from July 20th through the first week of August.

As Walter stated, there’s no such thing as ESSN being shut down while guides are still C&R. It’s everyone or no one. I will say that one user group has been advocating for the last several years for complete closure prior to season even opening while the other is fighting to lower escapement goals to kill more fish. This will be undeniably evident when we see comments and in person testimony during the BOF meeting. KRSA has sent out multiple emails over the last several years announcing their stance on the support for closures shutting down the numerous guides that make up the association.

I have a coworker that helps out at an ESSN site a few days each year. He is paid in fish for the year. And his freezer isn’t full of sockeye fillets. He has all kinds of pictures of double fist carrying mega females up the beach. He straight up says that kings are for the crew and no kings go on the fish tickets. (Of course all this prior to last year)

 

[johnnycake]

Why cant they close the fishery for a few years? No harvest would let the fish lay eggs. Pretty simple solution actually.

One thing to keep in mind is that there are 2 runs of kings in the Kenai, with separate management parameters. The "early" run has been completely closed to harvest, and often no C&R even, more years than not over the past decade. And it is still struggling. There is definitely room for improvement that can happen in-river, but the bigger problems are occurring in the salt. Prop 83 is a great idea, and one that I wish had been done earlier.

 

[WRO]

I’ve held that theory for sockeye and it really seems to be evident the last 5 or so years. For the last several years it’s EO openings 2-3 times a week for set and drift fleet the first 2-3 weeks in July. Then it’s escapement panic closures resulting in 4/5 of the in river fish being from July 20th through the first week of August.

As Walter stated, there’s no such thing as ESSN being shut down while guides are still C&R. It’s everyone or no one. I will say that one user group has been advocating for the last several years for complete closure prior to season even opening while the other is fighting to lower escapement goals to kill more fish. This will be undeniably evident when we see comments and in person testimony during the BOF meeting. KRSA has sent out multiple emails over the last several years announcing their stance on the support for closures shutting down the numerous guides that make up the association.

I have a coworker that helps out at an ESSN site a few days each year. He is paid in fish for the year. And his freezer isn’t full of sockeye fillets. He has all kinds of pictures of double fist carrying mega females up the beach. He straight up says that kings are for the crew and no kings go on the fish tickets. (Of course all this prior to last year)

It’s been that way for decades. Set netters beach sale or personal use big kings.


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[WRO]

One thing to keep in mind is that there are 2 runs of kings in the Kenai, with separate management parameters. The "early" run has been completely closed to harvest, and often no C&R even, more years than not over the past decade. And it is still struggling. There is definitely room for improvement that can happen in-river, but the bigger problems are occurring in the salt. Prop 83 is a great idea, and one that I wish had been done earlier.

Yes, buuuut they got murdered on the first Tuesday in July every year. A lot of them spawn in the lower river, slikok, sunken island, etc.


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[prairieboy]

sorry but the nets have to go. Same thing in alot of other places, all the netting is not sustainable.

 

[trapperJ]

Kenai kings were circling the drain years ago. And ADF&G was there with a plunger trying to flush them. They succeeded

 

[thinhorn_AK]

It’s been that way for decades. Set netters beach sale or personal use big kings.


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Shit, I was out set netting last season and prices were so low, folks were stuffing the kings into the bottom of brailers because the tenders dont really see wha tthey are dumping into the holds. They wanted every .30 cents/LB they could squeeze. Usually yes though, take the kings home.

 

[johnnycake]

Yes, buuuut they got murdered on the first Tuesday in July every year. A lot of them spawn in the lower river, slikok, sunken island, etc.


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The LR has not been open to retention every year on the opener, especially not above Slikok. And the fish that hit the river in May aren't the ones getting caught July 1. Les Anderson's WR was a May fish. Even with about a decade of closures on retention of May Kenai kings those 6yr ocean fish still aren't there in any numbers like they used to be.

 

[WRO]

The LR has not been open to retention every year on the opener, especially not above Slikok. And the fish that hit the river in May aren't the ones getting caught July 1. Les Anderson's WR was a May fish. Even with about a decade of closures on retention of May Kenai kings those 6yr ocean fish still aren't there in any numbers like they used to be.

It’ll take decades to recover the king run, the issue’s still predominantly in the ocean, but sports fishermen are not lily white in this either.


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[WalterH]

The LR has not been open to retention every year on the opener, especially not above Slikok. And the fish that hit the river in May aren't the ones getting caught July 1. Les Anderson's WR was a May fish. Even with about a decade of closures on retention of May Kenai kings those 6yr ocean fish still aren't there in any numbers like they used to be.

The early run has largely been written off as a lost cause. It certainly warrants the same if not greater concern and protection as the LR, but most think it is too far gone to recover and as such aren't pushing any sort of additional action or management on the ER.

There will be some data coming out in the near future regarding the size and sex issues mentioned previously

The most vital part of the Kenai LR, that is the fish that are most important when it comes to perpetuating the run, are the 4 ocean females. The big egg wagons. Hens used to make up approximately half of the run as a whole, with 4 ocean females being over half of the entire hen count. Now females make up a drastically smaller percentage of the run as a whole, and 4 ocean females are a smaller percentage of the returning hens.

Most of us have anecdotally thought this to be the case and now the data shows it. Small males make up the vast majority of the kings runs these days with the most important fish for recovery being all but absent from the scene.

This is perhaps the most concerning data point currently being looked at.

 

[WalterH]

""To get a better idea of the MASSIVE scale of aggregate fecundity loss over my fishing career on the Kenai, let's look specifically at 4-ocean females that were once the backbone of the spawning population. When Kenai king returns were healthy, a typical late run could be 60k, half of them were females, and two thirds of those were 4-ocean egg wagons packing 12k eggs. An educated guesstimate of aggregate 4-ocean fecundity might look like this... 60K x 50% x 67% x 12K = 240 million eggs! Now lets compare that to the most recent chinook life cycle with an average return of only 13K and only 21% of them 4-ocean hens. The fish are also now smaller for age, so the payload of eggs is proportionately reduced... let's say 11k (perhaps it's even less) just to be conservative. Current average fecundity each season now comes out to 13K x 0.21 x 11K = 30 million eggs. JFC... that's an 88% reduction in fecundity just on the 4-ocean age class alone." -Francis Estalilla

 

[AKBC]

I am not a guide and have never been one on the Kenai.

Interesting because your Facebook profile says you are a "fishing guide". Apparently you are playing word games. Perhaps your sentence should read: "I am not and have never been a guide on the Kenai but I am a fishing guide in Alaska".

Your proposal is just another attempt to reallocate fish (reds, kings, silvers) from commercial to sport and you are using low king returns on the Kenai as justification.

 

[WalterH]

Interesting because your Facebook profile says you are a "fishing guide". Apparently you are playing word games. Perhaps your sentence should read: "I am not and have never been a guide on the Kenai but I am a fishing guide in Alaska".

Your proposal is just another attempt to reallocate fish (reds, kings, silvers) from commercial to sport and you are using low king returns on the Kenai as justification.

Incorrect in all cases. It is clear that reading comprehension and critical thinking are not your strong suits.

 

[william schmaltz]

Interesting because your Facebook profile says you are a "fishing guide". Apparently you are playing word games. Perhaps your sentence should read: "I am not and have never been a guide on the Kenai but I am a fishing guide in Alaska".

Your proposal is just another attempt to reallocate fish (reds, kings, silvers) from commercial to sport and you are using low king returns on the Kenai as justification.

Serious question because now I feel like I’m missing something. How would this reallocate from commercial to sport?

To my comprehension, the proposal would start the seasons as closed and paired openings would happen based on projected escapement goals. C&R and 12 hrs of ESSN fishing would kick in at ~15-18k. And scale from there.

If I were to change anything on the proposal, it would be to get rid of the projected return language. Continued fumbling based off preseason numbers and in river numbers plays into this whole mess. We all agree that a number of things are happening in the oceans, I’m not sure how they have changed their preseason and in river projections based on these factors, but it sure seems they are FAR from having it nailed down! I get trying to spread harvest/mortality over the whole run, but IMO, no openings should happen until the fish are beyond the counter.

 

[AKBC]

Serious question because now I feel like I’m missing something. How would this reallocate from commercial to sport?

To my comprehension, the proposal would start the seasons as closed and paired openings would happen based on projected escapement goals. C&R and 12 hrs of ESSN fishing would kick in at ~15-18k. And scale from there.

If I were to change anything on the proposal, it would be to get rid of the projected return language. Continued fumbling based off preseason numbers and in river numbers plays into this whole mess. We all agree that a number of things are happening in the oceans, I’m not sure how they have changed their preseason and in river projections based on these factors, but it sure seems they are FAR from having it nailed down! I get trying to spread harvest/mortality over the whole run, but IMO, no openings should happen until the fish are beyond the counter.

Here is what WalterH said above: I think the primary impact that this proposal would have on the comm fish and ESSN folks is that they would be doing the bulk of their sockeye harvesting later in the season. From a sockeye run timing standpoint, that doesn't seem to be problematic seeing as how the sockeye have been coming in hard well into August the last few years. In years where sockeye numbers are down, I would imagine not being able to fish the peak of the run would be sub-optimal.

Someone pointed out that late season harvest has a big impact on silvers returning to Anchorage/MatSu systems. Under the proposal the commercial guys would start sockeye fishing late, then it would be dipnetting season and there would be political pressure to reduce the commercial harvest so the dippers have "predictable opportunity, and then they would be shut down for silver season.

I am all for curtailing the setnet commercial fishery to protect kings and agree with last seasons shut down of the setnet fishery. Let the drifters catch the reds though; they catch very few because it is hard to catch big kings in drift gear. I think it's time to stop torturing king spawners until we get some kind of recovery.

 

[WalterH]

Serious question because now I feel like I’m missing something. How would this reallocate from commercial to sport?

To my comprehension, the proposal would start the seasons as closed and paired openings would happen based on projected escapement goals. C&R and 12 hrs of ESSN fishing would kick in at ~15-18k. And scale from there.

If I were to change anything on the proposal, it would be to get rid of the projected return language. Continued fumbling based off preseason numbers and in river numbers plays into this whole mess. We all agree that a number of things are happening in the oceans, I’m not sure how they have changed their preseason and in river projections based on these factors, but it sure seems they are FAR from having it nailed down! I get trying to spread harvest/mortality over the whole run, but IMO, no openings should happen until the fish are beyond the counter.

Great points.

Using the current model for the preseason forecast as a management tool is irresponsible at best.

The “formula” that ADFG uses to project king returns is badly out of date. Even when the formulas ratio of age classes based on brood year returns was more accurate, the forecast was off wildly on both ends of the spectrum.

The current formula still factors in 60-ish percent of the run being made up of 4 salt fish, which used to be the case, but is not any more. Not even close. Those fish have been functionally non-existent for a handful of years, which is the primary reason the forecast has been much higher than actual.

ADFG’s mindset on that issue has been that the age class makeup of the run will normalize again, but it is now clear that isn’t happening.

I agree that using actual fish passage for openings and continued closures would be best for the kings, but it would be a non-starter based on the people factor. The rod holders and net tenders want some opportunity as early as possible, and projections will continue to be used to justify that.

 

[Marbles]

Also, the red run you are talking about is a hatchery run and the "fishing boats" you refer to are catching fish for hatchery cost recovery so that the hatchery is funded to continue to produce fish. If the cost recovery fishing ended the hatchery would stop producing and there would be no fish at all for anyone.

It is certainly true that when the commercial guys are out fish don't come back in the river in any numbers worthy of note, both Kenai and Kasilof, and as a subsistence fisherman one might as well pack up and go home.

It is disingenuous to imply that what happens with the red run over in Seward does not also apply on the Cook Inlet side. I pick up on a lot of motivated reasoning in your posts though, so it does not surprise me.

 

[SteelheadBum406]

The bottom-line up front is that this entire issue comes down to the human factor: MONEY, POWER and GREED. These intrinsic values are inherently mankind across all cultures and ethnic groups.

Absolutely no stakeholders will voluntarily take a reduction in money or power until the last wild Chinook/King is extinct. Sad but true. I truly feel for the fishing fleet guys and the lodge owners. Nobody wants to see them lose their livelihood, but all the signs are there for us to see. Even the politicians and other fishery leaders are fearful that their power is waning due to fewer fish. The masses know there are fewer fish to be had and that their representatives have not done what they promised to do for them. Provide more fish!

In the "subsistence" world, the belief is that it is their God given right to take as many fish as they can get for survival. In the old days many, many decades ago this was probably sustainable. Today however, this is no longer possible as more and more people are demanding more salmon from a depleted salmon resource for their subsistence purposes. Yet it is still a badge of honor to be the guy with the biggest and most fish at the end of the day. Now they are complaining that there are fewer fish to take.

The WILD salmon and steelhead populations in the North America region are in a population death spiral and the stakeholders still maintain that someone or something else is at fault, but "by God don't tell me I have to take a reduction in the number of fish I can catch and keep."

No easy answers or solutions to satisfy the masses of stakeholders. Bummer.

 

[WRO]

Kenai kings were circling the drain years ago. And ADF&G was there with a plunger trying to flush them. They succeeded

Its the Alaska department of commercial fisheries and hunting.

 

[WRO]

Until MSY is thrown out of the equation, there is no hope. The Maximum sustained yield theory only works for a few species, not all of them. MSY has led to the down fall of many species.

Conservation and preservation need to come first.