Is Anchorage headed towards another lockdown?

[Marbles]

Alaska airliines just opened all of their airport lounges. Crazy how everything doesn't jive....hard to keep up with the different actions.

Agreed, the inconsistency gets frustrating. Some of it I can understand, and some of it leaves me wishing I was a hermit in the Brooks Range.

It seems like "flatten the curve" was somehow interpreted as "stop the curve" and folks think there should be no new cases. People are still going to get infected; some will never know, some will get sick, and some will need hospitalization. The three humans in my household had it, and we all had far worse flus over the last winter.

Agreed, I don't think we can out run this, so I see it as a game of balancing letting it work through the population and hoping we build long lasting immunity (I think it is likely that we do based on the available data) with not crushing the healthcare system under a massive spike in cases as it is not designed to absorb that shock. The economic side is also a balancing act. While all the data is preliminary, there is evidence that about 80% of cases have very mild to no symptoms and that herd immunity is achieved at a lower level than we once though. It is going to be really interesting to look back at all this in two years.

 

[dpat]

Marbles,

In Illinois now if a person has tested positive for Covid it must be listed as a cause even if they are on hospice with cancer and that is what leads to the persons death. They Covid cases are being counted no matter the persons illnesses or diseases prior to Covid. Ex. if they die of blunt force trauma in a auto accident but had tested positive for Covid it gets counted under Covid related deaths.

 

[4rcgoat]

Marbles,

In Illinois now if a person has tested positive for Covid it must be listed as a cause even if they are on hospice with cancer and that is what leads to the persons death. They Covid cases are being counted no matter the persons illnesses or diseases prior to Covid. Ex. if they die of blunt force trauma in a auto accident but had tested positive for Covid it gets counted under Covid related deaths.

Disgraceful

 

[Marbles]

Marbles,

In Illinois now if a person has tested positive for Covid it must be listed as a cause even if they are on hospice with cancer and that is what leads to the persons death. They Covid cases are being counted no matter the persons illnesses or diseases prior to Covid. Ex. if they die of blunt force trauma in a auto accident but had tested positive for Covid it gets counted under Covid related deaths.

Documentation?

Per the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health:
“There are also some additional deaths that happen in someone who happened to be COVID positive, but where the COVID infection had nothing to do with the deaths. So we are at IDPH trying to remove those obvious cases where the COVID diagnosis was not the reason for the death. If there was a gunshot wound, if there was a motor vehicle accident, we know that that was not related to the COVID positive status.

“We are trying to make sure that things that aren’t related at all to the COVID diagnosis are removed, but if someone has another illness, like heart disease, and then had a stroke or other event, it’s not as easy to separate that and say COVID didn’t exacerbate that existing illness. That would not be removed from the count,”

In regards to hospice patients, that is long standing practice from well before COVID. The CDC booklet I posted earlier was published in 2004.

It looks like before May 12th there was validity to what you say, but the State specifically went back and corrected the count. So, whether it resulted from malice, or human error as people tried to get a handle on a situation they did not understand, it has been corrected for almost three months.

 

[EastMT]

Documentation?

Per the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health:
“There are also some additional deaths that happen in someone who happened to be COVID positive, but where the COVID infection had nothing to do with the deaths. So we are at IDPH trying to remove those obvious cases where the COVID diagnosis was not the reason for the death. If there was a gunshot wound, if there was a motor vehicle accident, we know that that was not related to the COVID positive status.

“We are trying to make sure that things that aren’t related at all to the COVID diagnosis are removed, but if someone has another illness, like heart disease, and then had a stroke or other event, it’s not as easy to separate that and say COVID didn’t exacerbate that existing illness. That would not be removed from the count,”

In regards to hospice patients, that is long standing practice from well before COVID. The CDC booklet I posted earlier was published in 2004.

It looks like before May 12th there was validity to what you say, but the State specifically went back and corrected the count. So, whether it resulted from malice, or human error as people tried to get a handle on a situation they did not understand, it has been corrected for almost three months.

Yes I believe that is accurate. My friends aunt who died after fighting lymphoma for 3 years was listed as covid. No conspiracy. No symptoms, they knew it was coming months ago. Could it have caused complications? Yeah. Could it have exacerbated it? Yeah. Was she on her deathbed for the last month, probably picked it up from a hospice nurse? Most likely.

But back to the original question, I think Alaska is really fighting not to lock down by being more strict on incoming visitors. I think whether they are doing it to protect the economy or to protect the health, or a combination that it’s a good idea. Alaska’s separation from the lesser 48 leaves them a better chance of it succeeding vs states surrounded by other states.

 

[AKBorn]

But back to the original question, I think Alaska is really fighting not to lock down by being more strict on incoming visitors. I think whether they are doing it to protect the economy or to protect the health, or a combination that it’s a good idea. Alaska’s separation from the lesser 48 leaves them a better chance of it succeeding vs states surrounded by other states.

Another potential reason for Alaska to restrict incoming travel - most if not all of Alaska's hospital resources for treating COVID are likely restricted to Anchorage, Fairbanks, and maybe a couple of other locations or military bases. If non-residents heading out to the villages to hunt happen to bring COVID with them, any COVID cases that would result in the village would likely need to be transported to a larger city for treatment?

Hoping you guys are able to get a handle on it and turn the tide...

 

[durangobrad]

Marbles,

In Illinois now if a person has tested positive for Covid it must be listed as a cause even if they are on hospice with cancer and that is what leads to the persons death. They Covid cases are being counted no matter the persons illnesses or diseases prior to Covid. Ex. if they die of blunt force trauma in a auto accident but had tested positive for Covid it gets counted under Covid related deaths.

I bet you can't prove this.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

 

[dpat]

Marbles,
The key words in the newest releases is the word "trying" the state system for death certificates is computerized they could fix any of them by bring up causes related to Covid. That same director is the one who stood at a press conference and said if they test positive for Covid it counts as a Covid death no matter the real cause. Little has been done to change this and it dammn sure should of never been stated to do it that way because all it does is inflate numbers.

Durangobrad,
Read what Marbles posted above proves its happening. Press releases and press conferences back in March when it all started also state this. My job for the last 25 years deals with death certificates in part.

The main take i have on it is nobody in government, medical field and darn sure private people know the best, or right way to handle Covid and all the issues it has caused. It sure seems that some things (ideas) are thrown out just to see if maybe they work and if they don't they move on to something else.

 

[dpat]

 

[dpat]

I've taken this way off subject and i apologize.

 

[Marbles]

Marbles,
The key words in the newest releases is the word "trying" the state system for death certificates is computerized they could fix any of them by bring up causes related to Covid. That same director is the one who stood at a press conference and said if they test positive for Covid it counts as a Covid death no matter the real cause. Little has been done to change this and it dammn sure should of never been stated to do it that way because all it does is inflate numbers.

The main take i have on it is nobody in government, medical field and darn sure private people know the best, or right way to handle Covid and all the issues it has caused. It sure seems that some things (ideas) are thrown out just to see if maybe they work and if they don't they move on to something else.

It did happen, NOT happening now. NOT happening for almost THREE months. Even if I accepted your "trying" argument, your point is completely invalid at the present and has been completely invalid for months (plural). Unless you have documentation I cannot find, which you have not provided. That video is from May 13th, rather old information that was already discussed. If you are so concerned with accuracy, why not complain about Texas which is currently under counting it's case rate by tens of thousands?

You computer idea is foolish, there is no other way to put it. Medicine is too complex to just run an algorithm (even if you incorporate machine learning that takes time, human verification, and massive data sets). If someone gets in an MVC, has bilateral pulmonary contusions, gets admitted to ICU, tests positive for COVID, and dies of acute respiratory failure no one can logically argue that COVID did not contribute to that death. Likewise, we know that COVID contributes to coagulopathy, so if someone dies from DIC after trauma and has COVID it is not really possible to know if it contributed. (Standard practice is to error on the side of over reporting. This is why there are ridiculous vaccine reactions listed, it happened to one or two people--out of millions--within 72 hours of being vaccinated, so it is required to be reported. The truth is that it is too rare to establish a causal relationship between the two.) Computers would miss these distinctions (as will humans at times). The initial mistake was probably because some good idea fairy thought that using a computer and automatically matching lab test with death certificates was a good idea (conjecture on my part, but fits with my prior experience). Making the same mistake again runs the risk of compounding errors.

Yes, people don't know how to handle this. There is no comparison in living memory. In the real world many times you have to take the best information you have and act on it with no guaranties that you are correct. The important thing as that you are willing to change course as new information presents itself (I discuss this in my first post on this thread).

What we can say without question is this is way worse than the flue (perhaps because the disease is worse, perhaps just because it spreads so much better, perhaps a little of both). Last year the flue killed 20 to 40 thousand Americans. Even if you say half of the COVID deaths should not count that number has been surpassed in a matter of months. In 2018 (last year with data) 36,560 people died in car accidents. So, if you take the high number for flue and combine that with all motor vehicle fatalities, then cut the COVID death count in HALF, the COVID death count is still greater, even though it represents less than half a year of data. The only point of this is to put the numbers in perspective.

There are plenty of reports, from around the US and from several other countries, that anecdotally confirm there is validity to the numbers. These range from hospital staff struggling with having to decide who to save and who to let die to morgues filled beyond capacity with bodies, to shortages of equipment.

I think my ability to contribute to this thread in a productive manner is about spent, so I'm out.

 

[Nutsknr]

I’m not a doctor.

I would only point out that flu “killed 20-40 thousand Americans last year” kind of makes a point. That’s a 20k gap. The reason is it’s a guess. Further, it’s a bigger guess trying to estimate positive flu cases per year. Very few ever get tested for flu so no one knows the positive rates. They guess. It also safe to say that flu death would be magnitudes higher if like Covid there was no vaccine. Especially when you consider the same vulnerable population to Covid, are the ones who vaccinate in highest numbers against flu.


Second, we are indeed seeing massive numbers manipulation. 2weeks ago one Florida testing center had 100% positives in all their tests. We’ve seen numerous states go back and correct data. And there is that little sticking point about increased payments to hospitals for Covid patients.

Doesn’t mean it’s not serious. Nor deadly. But the results are only as good as the numbers being put in.

I still find it laughable that a restaurant or bar is so dangerous, but Home Depot is fine. It’s almost as if the restaurant associations don’t make as big of campaign contributions as big box stores?

I for one would find it refreshing to hear anyone in a gov office say “we don’t know, we are just guessing”.

 

[Marbles]

162 million influenza vaccine doses manufactured for US market last year.

Second, we are indeed seeing massive numbers manipulation. 2weeks ago one Florida testing center had 100% positives in all their tests. We’ve seen numerous states go back and correct data. And there is that little sticking point about increased payments to hospitals for Covid patients.

47 Florida labs (out of over 300) where failing to report negative results in error, all posatives were still posative. That is a far cry from "massive numbers manipulate."

I'll leave the rest alone and try to stick with being out. I need to work on self control anyway.

 

[Fatcamp]

I bet you can't prove this.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

Actually, Marbles quote above clearly states it is happening but they are, "trying to make sure" to remove those cases.

 

[mwebs]

Came to this thread looking for inside/ up to date information for my buddy’s up coming AK hunt. See that it has devolved into the same tired argument. If anyone has any actual information about flights and hunts being affected I would love to hear it. I don’t give a shit if you personally think this is overblown or not. That’s just like your opinion man..

 

[kid44]

It is not just AK, we are going in the wrong direction everywhere. Getting worse by the day.

 

[Meanderthal]

I live in Anchorage and find it irrational to worry about C19.

The sky isn't falling. Sure, it sucks that there is a pandemic but this one is pretty tame. Very few medical systems have been stressed (none in AK), most cases are mild and healthy people cope quite well. The case fatality rate is very low. It appears that by the time we reach herd immunity the death count will have been nothing more than a rounding error in the grand scheme. As far as pandemics go we could do a lot worse. I certainly wouldn't want to roll the dice again.

 

[AK_Skeeter]

The toughest guy I know was one of the first to get COVID-19 in interior Alaska.
https://www.adn.com/alaska-life/202...laskan-hopes-others-can-learn-from-his-story/
I am in the same age class and level of fitness and based on his scary experience and months of recovery,
our family is taking all precautions we can to minimize our risk.
That is fairly easy with hunting season starting Aug 10.

We will be taking all possible precautions until vaccinated.

 

[MattB]

I still find it laughable that a restaurant or bar is so dangerous, but Home Depot is fine. It’s almost as if the restaurant associations don’t make as big of campaign contributions as big box stores?

Given infection is in part a function of time of exposure, do you really find the notion laughable that sitting in proximity to a contagious person for an hour is worse than momentarily walking past someone or even standing at the same distance from them in a checkout line for 5 minutes?

 

[MattB]