Idaho sheep draw question

[khart_6882]

I’ve been looking through harvest statistics for Rocky mtn bighorn in Idaho and their website does a great job of showing draw odds and harvest statistics by unit and resident vs non-resident. However, I can’t seem to figure out if the drawing pools are separated by resident vs non resident, or if everybody’s name goes into the same hat. The harvest stats show much better odds of residents being drawn, but way more residents applied in each unit than NR’s, so residents clearly have much better chances of winning.

Can anybody clear this up for me before I give IDFG a phone call?


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[TrackerG]

Following

 

[InkedElkSlayer]

Yes. Resident and Nonresident are separate and drawn from different pools.

Yes. Resident odds are significantly higher than nonresident. That doesn’t mean they’re great though.

Biggest reason for the odds is you have to choose between 1 of the big 3. In Idaho you can’t apply for every single species. You want a sheep? You have to focus and ONLY apply for sheep. The big 3 are also once in a lifetime, with differentiation of CA vs RM.

 

[khart_6882]

Thanks for the response. I noticed than in many units 0 NR’s drew tags. Granted, there were only like 3 tags available in those units, but does that mean that if resident applicants don’t draw all the tags in a unit then they move onto the NR applicants to pick up the scraps?


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[InkedElkSlayer]

The 0 Nonresidents drawn is just like MT and comes down to the 10% nonresident cap of tags.

The question you need to answer that I do not have 100% knowledge of is… Does the website ONLY allow you to apply for the units that actually have a nonresident tag available? I believe it does. MT’s does. But I have ID lifetime, so I’m not a nonresident and I haven’t applied for sheep in Idaho for several years. So I can’t say that with certainty.

Another reason for some units having uncharacteristically high odds simply boil down to the terrain, access, low densities and low success rates. They’re f-cking tough units that are along the lines of the MT Unlimited units.

 

[ckleeves]

I may be wrong (been a few years since I really dug deep into idaho MSG) but this is how I understand the sheep draw in idaho: res and non res are in the same pool, but non-res can’t exceed 1 tag per hunt code and also can’t exceed 10% of total tags which is usually less then 10 tags statewide. So once that cap is hit non-res are done.

I think some of the odds calculators don’t take into account the cap very accurately once you really break it down. Basically your competing with the other 2k ish non-res to draw one of 10 ish tags before the cap is met.

I may be wrong so someone correct me if this is incorrect.

 

[Steve O]

That’s exactly how I understand it. People that think odds are good for NR sheep tags in ID are sadly mistaken.

The only good odds for drawing a bighorn sheep tag for anyone are the Montana unlimiteds. Anywhere else, other than a dozen or two WY max point holders you are in the “keep a line in the water” category…scene all you way but taking you odds from .001% to .1% isn’t changing anything.

 

[Aeroflot81]

I may be wrong (been a few years since I really dug deep into idaho MSG) but this is how I understand the sheep draw in idaho: res and non res are in the same pool, but non-res can’t exceed 1 tag per hunt code and also can’t exceed 10% of total tags which is usually less then 10 tags statewide. So once that cap is hit non-res are done.

I think some of the odds calculators don’t take into account the cap very accurately once you really break it down. Basically your competing with the other 2k ish non-res to draw one of 10 ish tags before the cap is met.

I may be wrong so someone correct me if this is incorrect.

This is correct.

Also, there isn’t any unit that a NR couldn’t apply for and draw which is different from some states.

 

[khart_6882]

Thanks for the intel guys. I think I’ll stick with trying to get Idaho sheep, even if the odds are low. It’s the shortest drive for me for scouting purposes and I’m a big fan of a No Points System


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[alaska_bou]

What people don't always realize is that Idaho does not guarantee a single tag to non-residents, and they cap NR tags at no more than 10% of the total quota. So, if a NR gets lucky and draws a tag, even in a different unit, that outcome could potentially keep you from drawing your tag in a completely different unit. This is because there are no minimum number of licenses guaranteed for NR allocation, and because the 10% cap is based on the statewide quota and not a quota for each individual unit.

Idaho is a random draw, which may be appealing for guys with zero points, but the true odds for NR is much, much worse than most published statistics will lead their readers to believe.

 

[Trial153]

Read the above posts carefully. You can be drawing dead as NR in Idaho before a hand full of tags are even drawn.

 

[JDeck]

I encourage NR to apply for Idaho moose instead of sheep. The draw odds are 10-20x better for moose. Sheep odds are well under 1%

 

[TheTone]

I encourage NR to apply for Idaho moose instead of sheep. The draw odds are 10-20x better for moose. Sheep odds are well under 1%

And yet your odds could still potentially be 0% if the 10% overall quota is hit before they even get to your number

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

To clarify on a few things.
All hunt codes are put together in one drawing. It is done this way for moose, sheep, and goat.
Nonresidents can draw a one tag hunt code and no residents would draw.
Once the cap has been hit and all nonresident tags have been drawn, the rest of the nonres applications are thrown out.
So in theory, if there are 10 tags in a hunt code and all 10 are drawn by nonresidents and only 10 nonresidents applied, it will show the nonresidents had 100% draw odds for that hunt code. And if the total nonresident cap for that species is 10 tags, then all other nonres applications would be thrown out.

Even though the idfg website will show 100% draw odds for that hunt code, those applicants were not really guaranteed a tag with 100% draw odds.

 

[duckcarver]

Thanks for the insightful discussion.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

To clarify on a few things.
All hunt codes are put together in one drawing. It is done this way for moose, sheep, and goat.
Nonresidents can draw a one tag hunt code and no residents would draw.
Once the cap has been hit and all nonresident tags have been drawn, the rest of the nonres applications are thrown out.
So in theory, if there are 10 tags in a hunt code and all 10 are drawn by nonresidents and only 10 nonresidents applied, it will show the nonresidents had 100% draw odds for that hunt code. And if the total nonresident cap for that species is 10 tags, then all other nonres applications would be thrown out.

Even though the idfg website will show 100% draw odds for that hunt code, those applicants were not really guaranteed a tag with 100% draw odds.

It is impossible for NR to draw all 10 tags in one hunt code due to the 10% cap applying to each individual hunt as well as the statewide total. At most 1 NR could draw a tag out of the 10 available.

I am pretty sure that last year nonresidents could draw up to 9 total tags


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[cbeard64]

I have been in the draw game for 22 years, have studied pretty diligently, and still don’t fully understand exactly how each state’s draws work.

This thread exemplifies that. ID is a random draw state with no bonus/preference point system and it’s still hard to figure out your odds. At least in random draw states like ID and NM you can get a rough idea by just taking total NR apps vs. total NR tags drawn.

When you move into bonus/preference point states where everyone’s odds are different I’m pretty sure it would take Einstein to figure it out. Even the draw services like Epic Outdoors and Huntin’ Fool get it way wrong, because no one can know at what point in the draw the NR apps are going to come up on the computer. For example, you may be drawing “dead” this year in a unit that had 2 NR tags last year because the NR quota has been filled earlier in this year’s draw.

I drew a NR tag in AZ in 2014 with 13 bonus points and to this day if you ask 30 different knowledgeable folks what my odds were by looking at the numbers you will get 30 different answers.

WY used to have 8-10 random draw tags available and now they have 1. Every applicant with less than about 23 points is now paying to try for that one tag because they have zero chance at a PP tag.

Suffice it to say the odds used to be long but with all the NR hunter cutbacks they are now infinitesimal.

 

[Steve O]

They odds Epic posts are correct but are misleading…they give the odds for that hunt code that had a NR drawn. Yes if one tag is drawn in a hunt code out of 10 NR applicants it is 10% but you are in the pool with 90 additional residents so you are actually at 1%…and there are also another 30 or so hunt codes that COULD draw a non resident out of the massive number of residents. The odds are a LOT worse that everyone lets on for NR in Idaho sheep. I’d assume the same for goat and moose but I don’t pay attention as one mountain goat is plenty for me and I don’t care to shoot a little moose.

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

It is impossible for NR to draw all 10 tags in one hunt code due to the 10% cap applying to each individual hunt as well as the statewide total. At most 1 NR could draw a tag out of the 10 available.

I am pretty sure that last year nonresidents could draw up to 9 total tags


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I was making an exaggerated example for this but I do not believe that to be true. If it was the case, how can a nonresident draw the only tag in a one tag hunt code? And it might have been 9 total tags last year, like I said, it was just an example.

 

[cbeard64]

I was making an exaggerated example for this but I do not believe that to be true. If it was the case, how can a nonresident draw the only tag in a one tag hunt code? And it might have been 9 total tags last year, like I said, it was just an example.

I get that they can draw the only tag in a one tag unit in Idaho (which is impossible to do in some states so you have to be real careful). But what I don’t know is if you can predict when in the draw the computer will draw for any particular unit. If you can’t, then you don’t know whether or not you will be “drawing dead” or not. If you can know the unit draw order, then everyone applying for units drawn late in the draw have a high chance of “drawing dead”.

I don’t know exactly how the various states’ computers do their draws so I can’t figure the exact odds ahead of time for any particular unit. If the computers don’t draw in any particular unit order, no one can. I have always been told the computers in all states are random as to both 1)what units come up for drawing and 2)what NR tag apps are drawn along the way. I know that’s true in at least a few states but I have never looked that closely to see if that’s how ID does it.

That’s probably clear as mud.