Idaho sheep draw question

[cbeard64]

Basically all I’m saying is if there is no particular sequence the computer goes through on any particular parameter in any given draw then there is no way to predict your real odds of drawing ahead of time. The best you can do is an educated guess based on total numbers of apps vs. tags.

Even figuring what your odds were on a tag you drew is impossible to do without knowing exactly how the computer did the draw step-by-step in that particular draw. Because that’s the only way you know where you stood in relation to everyone else at the moment your name came out of the hat.

I can figure my odds in WY now because I have no chance in the PP draw, there is 1 NR random draw tag and usually about 1700-1900 guys applying for it.

 

[cbeard64]

They odds Epic posts are correct but are misleading…they give the odds for that hunt code that had a NR drawn. Yes if one tag is drawn in a hunt code out of 10 NR applicants it is 10% but you are in the pool with 90 additional residents so you are actually at 1%…and there are also another 30 or so hunt codes that COULD draw a non resident out of the massive number of residents. The odds are a LOT worse that everyone lets on for NR in Idaho sheep. I’d assume the same for goat and moose but I don’t pay attention as one mountain goat is plenty for me and I don’t care to shoot a little moose.

Agree 100%. I would personally characterize the way they give the odds as incorrect based on your correct analysis.But they are certainly misleading at the very least.

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

I get that they can draw the only tag in a one tag unit in Idaho (which is impossible to do in some states so you have to be real careful). But what I don’t know is if you can predict when in the draw the computer will draw for any particular unit. If you can’t, then you don’t know whether or not you will be “drawing dead” or not. If you can know the unit draw order, then everyone applying for units drawn late in the draw have a high chance of “drawing dead”.

I don’t know exactly how the various states’ computers do their draws so I can’t figure the exact odds ahead of time for any particular unit. If the computers don’t draw in any particular unit order, no one can. I have always been told the computers in all states are random as to both 1)what units come up for drawing and 2)what NR tag apps are drawn along the way. I know that’s true in at least a few states but I have never looked that closely to see if that’s how ID does it.

That’s probably clear as mud.

You're correct. And they don't go by hunt code. They put all applicants in a hat and start drawing by application and what is available. If the first name drawn out of a hat is a nonres with a first choice unit XX tag, they are getting it. The first 9 applicants in the draw could all be nonresidents drawn but as soon as the cap it hit, the rest are thrown out and it is all residents front there on out. Hence the drawing dead.

To your second comment, "Basically all I’m saying is if there is no particular sequence the computer goes through on any particular parameter in any given draw then there is no way to predict your real odds of drawing ahead of time. The best you can do is an educated guess based on total numbers of apps vs. tags."

Since they don't draw by hunt code or in any order of hunt code, it is a lot more like a lottery and you are 100% correct, there is no real way to predict your odds and that is why the companies do simple odds just based on how many applied for the unit and how many res/nonres drew.

 

[Steve O]

I can figure my odds in WY now because I have no chance in the PP draw, there is 1 NR random draw tag and usually about 1700-1900 guys applying for it.

Don’t give up hope…the Utah mountain goat tag I drew was 1:2412

 

[S-3 ranch]

Don’t you need to get permission from Doug Sayer to win in Idaho?
he has a say in sheep permits in Idaho with allocation

 

[TVW]

Don’t you need to get permission from Doug Sayer to win in Idaho?
he has a say in sheep permits in Idaho with allocation

Please elaborate....

 

[S-3 ranch]

Please elaborate....

He has been known to influence the f&w board to steer the sheep tags in Idaho

 

[Andrew12gauge]

I get that they can draw the only tag in a one tag unit in Idaho (which is impossible to do in some states so you have to be real careful). But what I don’t know is if you can predict when in the draw the computer will draw for any particular unit. If you can’t, then you don’t know whether or not you will be “drawing dead” or not. If you can know the unit draw order, then everyone applying for units drawn late in the draw have a high chance of “drawing dead”.

I don’t know exactly how the various states’ computers do their draws so I can’t figure the exact odds ahead of time for any particular unit. If the computers don’t draw in any particular unit order, no one can. I have always been told the computers in all states are random as to both 1)what units come up for drawing and 2)what NR tag apps are drawn along the way. I know that’s true in at least a few states but I have never looked that closely to see if that’s how ID does it.

That’s probably clear as mud.

They don’t draw any unit/hunt code in any order, they literally throw all the names, both resident and nonresident, in a hat pull them out and put them in order. Once they have the names in order they go down the list, determining solely on each applicants 1st choice whether a tag is available. If you are a NR you first have to be within the statewide 10% cap and then NR cannot have more than 10% of any one hunt, but they can draw even in single tag units, essentially there will not be 2 NR drawn on any single hunt.

So to figure out your odds of drawing as a nonresident take the total number of nonresident applicants across all open sheep hunts(x) and then 9/x=% chances assuming that NR’s get the 9 tag max. Then just hope that you aren’t unlucky enough to be the 2nd NR for the same unit.


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[ladogg411]

Wtf are you guys talking about. The advertised NR sheep draw odds are on the Idaho gfd website. And they look amazing. I'm in.