Post #2 nailed it. I've had lengthy conversations with a guy at our state fish and wildlife dept who does the statistics for them, I contacted him because our state was creating economic incentives to drive the outdoor recreation industry in a way that was (and still is) actively harming our ability to access places to hunt and fish, and I wanted some stats to back up some letters I wrote to our legislature. Basically, at least in Vermont, total hunter numbers are declining. However, it depends on how you count it. If you count # of individuals who hold a license, it's declining. If you count the number of specific tags (i.e. general hunting license which for us includes a whitetail buck tag, a bear tag, and small game; versus a muzzleloader tag versus an archery tag, a turkey tag, etc) then the numbers are not declining, and thus the revenue from license sales is pretty stable. If you count total hunter days, it's also not declining. Based on this fact and on polling they have done, they are fairly confident in saying that while overall hunter numbers have declined, that the % of ACTIVE hunters (i.e. those who will be out all season, take time from work to hunt, hunt multiple seasons, etc) is increased. I also see a higher % of my friends talking about traveling to hunt, even if it's a neighboring state--with the popularity and accessibility of the Hunting Public, Meateater, Randy Newburgh and every Bruce and Sheila out there being an "influencer", this comes as no surprise to me.
A few takeaways from my convo's with him:
1) fewer people that are in the woods more frequently can manifest as an increase in people in the woods on any given day--it's entirely possible that if people are hunting differently that it CAN be more crowded even if fewer people are hunting.
2) in my state, almost 14% of the population holds a hunting license, almost 3 times the national average. Even though our total hunter numbers are declining, that's still on par with the most popular outdoor activities such as fishing, hiking, bike riding, running, etc. If your state is similar dont let anyone shaft wildlife or hunters in favor of other activities because someone says it's a "dying sport". It will be if people keep killing it by developing other infrastructure (example, dense networks of dog-walking and mountain bike trails on WMA's paid for by pittman robertson funding, etc) on the public land where people can hunt locally. #1 reason I have seen cited for decline in participation is lack of a quality local place to go, #2 being not enough time to drive there (...because the local place is no good/not available, etc). Bottom line, by my read of the research lack of local access is a big factor driving the decline.
3). key-point-- the overall population demographics are driving much of this. With baby boomers aging out of hunting, there are simply fewer people to replace them. As a % of the population hunters may be smaller, but we also have a larger population, so the guy I spoke with said that if you look at the % of the population who hunt in specific age-brackets it hasnt changed all that much, we just had a huge bubble of hunters casued by a population boom through the 1960's and 1970's that has been tapering off since then. To a large degree the overall decline in hunter numbers says as much about our population as it does about participation in hunting. Thats not to say there are no issues, but if you account for the baby boom population it makes the decline much less dramatic.
4) I live in the east and there's lots of public around me. Not near as much as if I lived in any of the rocky mtn or western states, but I am perfectly happy hunting within 2 hours of my house, and I can literally walk out my back door and hunt whitetails. Tons of people will tell you that Vermont is a terrible state to hunt. Puny deer (true for the most part) lots of hunters (true as a % of the population) terrible weather and harsh winters and hardly any ag so very low deer numbers, etc compared to the states people will say are good hunting. All true, but between bird hunting, deer hunting, rabbit hunting I get to hunt every year from Sept 24 through March 31 on an OTC license, and then I have an OTC archery tg that is good for oct 1-mid december, I can apply for a muzzleloader doe tag that has very good draw odds, and I get a buck tag and a bear tag as part of my general license. All that plus my fishing license for sub $100. I get that a special place has a different experience and that's why I like to travel to hunt, but I feel like maybe the emphasis gets put ot he wrong stuff sometimes. I feel pretty fortunate to live in a state with such a reputation for "crappy hunting".
