How much can i expect handloading to change the accuracy with a given bullet? And what are the performance of the average factory rifle with a variety

[roadrunner]

Precisely. The only way to KNOW is to shoot a sufficient sample size. That's the "simple concept" many aren't "catching on to".

Not necessarily.

 

[yycyak]

I feel personally attacked by this comment...

I did this for 20 years. I thought it's what reloading and shooting were all about.

 

[ssimo]

The two questions you asked in the original post cannot be adequately answered in the context of a 3-shot group for each. That is why this discussion is still on topic.

For example, you asked "1) handloading: can a proper load development turn a 2 MOA group into a sub MOA one using a given projectile?"

So say you have a 2 MOA cartridge/rifle/shooter combo-- defined as every shot you take falls within a 2 MOA spread centered on your point of aim, every time. Sometimes by random chance that combo will shoot three shots in a .25 MOA spread. Sometimes by random chance it will shoot three shots in a 1.75 MOA spread. And so on. So using three-shot groups, your question is unlikely to be answered on the context of three-shot groups.

So let's change the context to a ten-shot group (or two five-shot groups overlaid on the same target, or three 3-shot groups plus one extra on the same target, etc). In my experience, if you're starting with high-quality ammo like Hornady Precision Hunter, then no, it is not a realistic expectation; if you and your gun are shooting 2 MOA 10-shot groups with factory ELD-X bullets, it is highly unlikely that you are going to be able to shoot sub-1 MOA 10-shot groups with hand loaded ELD-X bullets, even with an optimized hand loading process, high quality brass, etc.

This discussion is not on topic. Yes, ypu can answer in the context of three shots groups.

All this became very funny

 

[mt terry d]

Because Rokslide mafia says 10 round groups reveal a guns true MOA.

In all seriousness 3 shot groups weren't telling me what I needed to know. Too many possible variables.

Plus way better shooters, load developers, and rifleman on this forum all insist that you need to shoot 10 shot groups to see what your gun really shoots.

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More data
3 shot group. I have a 1/2' MOA rifle!! WooHoo!
+7 more
uh, nevermind

 

[ResearchinStuff]

it is irrelevant which is which, all that matters is there's a difference between the 2.

Using the photos in this thread, what's the difference?

 

[gbflyer]

1) No

2) Often times good factory ammo is more accurate than a hand load. Amazing how well they do their job for the most part.

 

[ssimo]

More data
3 shot group. I have a 1/2' MOA rifle!! WooHoo!
+7 more
uh, nevermind

That was not a half MOA gun/ammo combo. Or maybe conditions changed slightly/the barrel got hot/the shooter made an error. If I say my rifle is half MOA, it's because i have made extensive testing with it and i know that gun very well. If you were thinking that was a half moa gun after the first 3 shots i assume it was one of the first groups you shot with it.

Getting to know your rifle can be achieved with 3, 4, 5, 70 shots groups. Unless you are looking for statistical significance, in this case you should do a randomized trial, shooting thousands of ammo eith different shooters and conditions and 100k shots group. The barrel would wear out early into the test

I use the term "half MOA" as it is conventionally done, after shooting a good amount of groups during zeroing, trajectory testing and training, i know what my gun is capable of and, for practical means, i call that rifle/load combination capable of half MOA accuracy on average. Sometimes the groups will be a bit tighter, sometimes a bit larger but always in that approximative accuracy range. I will admit it is not scientifically proven. I know this approach works for my applications.

Again, huge OT

 

[ssimo]

1) No

2) Often times good factory ammo is more accurate than a hand load. Amazing how well they do their job for the most part.

Thanks for answering the original questions. That's interesting. Lot of different and contrasting opinions here. I thought this subject was much easier to cope with!

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

You might get lucky and turn a 2moa gun into a 1 moa with hand loads, but it will probably not get much better.

I don't agree. Preparing for '21 elk hunt I shot 5 shot groups with 7 different factory loads in my Ruger American .308. These were in separate sessions and the barrel wasn't cleaned between sessions. I don't remember the exact orderr, except for the fact the Hornady loads were shot last.

Federal 165/180 TBT- Bullet weight didn't change POI, .75-1.5" at 100 yards
Federal 175 TA- .5-1" at 100 yards
Federal Fusion 180- 3-4" at 100 yards
Winchester 180 "white box"- 4" (best) at 100 yards
Hornady 168 Match ELDM- .5-1" at 100 yards
Hornady 178 PH ELDM- .75-1.5" at 100 yards
Browning 168 TMK- 5" at 100 yards

EDIT: My 5 shot groups were across a 20 round box of ammo for each load above. To @Formidilosus point, If I overlayed all 4- 5 shot groups for each box of 20, the extreme spread or standard deviation would've increased. I don't have the targets anymore, so I can't say what the overall numbers were, but I will change my approach moving forward.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Evidence?

The position to the "bullseye" your first shot is.

Anything else is just feel good measures...

Hell, if statistics have no value, and cannot accurately predict a specific rifle and load's repeatable performance, do you also believe the earth is flat ?

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Top target is first group first 3 shots are good then as it heated up it started throwing shots to the left the lower target was the next 5 of your continuous string and still shooting to the left.

I am sure you will say its the opposite but oh well...pencil barrel hunting rifle will through shots everytime how much depends on the rifle 10 round groups don't mean anything on a hunting rifle. Heavey barrel target rifles sure.

Oh yeah, because I want my hunting rifle, that I'm using to kill things, to be less precise and less predictable than my paper killing gun. Come on man...

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Precisely. The only way to KNOW is to shoot a sufficient sample size. That's the "simple concept" many aren't "catching on to".

 

[Overdrive]

I think you can get handloads to shoot better than factory most of the time. Factory is loaded to an industry standard so it can be used in a variety of rifles and still function (go bang) accuracy might vary from rifle to rifle.

And that's where hand loading comes in, you can change powder charges, primers, seating depths and taylor your selected bullets to your rifle.

I definitely enjoy hand loading it still saves me money and I can shoot more thru the year making me more efficient in the long run. I couldn't afford to shoot much in a year paying over $100 a box for some of my magnum calibers. But being able to load up 50 to 100 at a time I shoot more and still be ahead.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

I would say it's not as most people shoot worse in a hunting situation if they are being honest. No bench or perfectly flat area to shoot in most hunting situations.

Thus the desire to find a load that is predictably accurate based on adequate sample size and shooting. You want to have confidence that when you're under stress in a hunting situation that you can absolutely shoot +/- given standard deviation of that rifle and load.

 

[Harvey_NW]

it is irrelevant which is which, all that matters is there's a difference between the 2.

But there's not, the point is both fall within the cone. The fact that they appear slightly different is due to the random distribution of small sample size.

which way one goes can depend on other things, there's no reasonable way for me to determine if your gun shoots better hot or cold.

If both groups fall within the established cone (the one that takes a very large sample size) then they shoot the same, you can have confidence in first round impacts.

also, just to stir the pot, all those nice 30 round groups started with the first 3 rounds. not that it means anything, but just saying lol.

The point is to know how much dispersion there is between any 3 shot string fired, and to have your zero be in the proven center of that cone.

hot vs cold barrel is no myth, I can assure you of that. unless you found a way around metallurgy, things will always change between the 2. will they change enough to notice? maybe, but then you have to look alloy composition, grain structure etc. and that also applies to bullets as not all jackets are the same. plus the retained heat in the chamber will have an effect overall. but that's getting into thermal dynamics.

The myth is the blanket statement hot sporter contour barrels deviate with heat. Single point cut rifled barrels, and properly stress relieved hammer forged or button rifled barrels don't "start pitching shots after the 3rd round". What people are most commonly observing in those circumstances is the exact point we're talking about, that people don't actually know the precision of their system, and it's not as precise as everyone wishes it is, so they excuse "fliers" with things like barrel heat.

 

[roadrunner]

Hell, if statistics have no value, and cannot accurately predict a specific rifle and load's repeatable performance, do you also believe the earth is flat ?

So it's okay to be off target by several inches just so long as they group tight?

Makes as much sense as a screen door on a submarine McFly...

 

[aachey]

1. If the gun is shooting 2 moa, its possible that changing one of the multiple variables can make it better. But in the handloading side that means having multiple powders, primers, different brass, etc. If you’re already reloading than i feel thats just part of the load development process. I think generally if you’re not getting the best results from a bullet, its easier to try other bullets then trying to find that one magical combination. Usually if a bullet shoots like shit from the start, its going to shoot like shit the whole time. Or maybe you do find that sweet spot but then its also sensitive to pressure changes, temperature changes, seating depth variance, etc.

2. Obviously all factory ammo varies. Generally i’ll see better accuracy out of my reloads than factory. Biggest benefit to reloading is you know that each round is exactly the same. So if you’re having questionable groups it can at least rule out a variable, or it is the variable. On the factory side id buy a couple different brands and just see what holds the best precision and accuracy.

 

[ResearchinStuff]

how come none of the hot barrel flyer disciples have identified the hot and cold barrel groups posted?

Literally, not even one single guess from people who are arguing vehemently that there are real differences. Shown some real data, ya'll cannot point out a single difference. There's a reason for that - it's because there is no difference.

 

[Harvey_NW]

Thanks for answering the original questions. That's interesting. Lot of different and contrasting opinions here. I thought this subject was much easier to cope with!

The reason for this being such a touchy subject is because the opinions contrast with the proven science of ballistics, and statistics contradict the traditional ideology of reloading. For example, and my answer to your first question, is that if you have a load combo that shoots a 2 MOA group, it's highly likely that you'll never get it to consistently shoot 1 MOA or less by manipulating one variable, like seating depth or powder charge. The example given previously about a 55gr charge shooting a 2" group, and a 56.5gr charge shooting a .25" group, is not a "node", and those loads likely aren't even measurably different when taken to a larger sample size. That is a classic observation of random distribution and noisy small sample data sets. Load development is more about finding the combination of components that produce consistently low dispersion.

To your second question, some rifles shoot factory ammo extremely well. Some people get lucky and have it shoot well with low ES/SD. But in my personal experience, the biggest gain from hand loading is the consistency. Typically my handloads produce an ES of about 30 (large sample size), and factory ammo is pretty wild and often in the 70-100fps range.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

So it's okay to be off target by several inches just so long as they group tight?

Makes as much sense as a screen door on a submarine McFly...

LOL, no, it's absolutely not okay to be off target by several inches. A 10 round minimum group will tell you how far "off target" you are with more predicatability, due to the laws of statistics, than a 3 shot group. Moreover, a 20 shot group will have more validity than 10, and so on... The law of "small numbers" will tell you that individual data points amongst a small set of data will inappropriately skew the data one way or the other, leading people to a false belief in the outcome.

Increase the sample size, and the average for the entire data set will move to the center or "mean" with increasing statistical validity or "P-value". In statistics, there are hard laws around when a hypothesis is either accepted or thrown out based on the "P-value". The point being to eliminate special cause variation until a statistically significant conclusion can be reached.

Let's foget about shooting rifle groups. Have you never looked at polling data for elections? They give you the total number of people, re: the sample size, and the margin of error of the results based on that sample size. That is the only way to understand if the poll has any statistical validity. As sample size increases, the confidence interval or "margin of error" of the results improves. The concept is the same for shooting or any similar activity.

How many archers on here only shoot 3 arrows in a range session to determine whether the selected shafter, vanes, insert, and broadhead are accurate out of their setup?