How Accurate are CO Harvest Stats?

[Billy Goat]

Straight off the CPW website 233,000 elk licenses sold 61,000 surveyed. That's not going to be accurate when you are guessing on most of the numbers. There is a reason we are in this mess with elk. A lot of it has to do with inaccurate herd counts, harvest stats, and exactly how many hunters are in OTC units.

I wonder if that is email surveyed. Only survey I have done is when they called me. Seems like an email survey might only target a certain demographic. Seems before it was a lottery and they called x number of hunters to take a survey over the phone. Sounds like most are getting something in an email. Email address I have them is a bulk account that gets 100 messages a day. I don't remember seeing anything from them but it could be there.

 

[mlgc20]

Straight off the CPW website 233,000 elk licenses sold 61,000 surveyed. That's not going to be accurate when you are guessing on most of the numbers. There is a reason we are in this mess with elk. A lot of it has to do with inaccurate herd counts, harvest stats, and exactly how many hunters are in OTC units.

If the numbers posted by CPW above are correct, then that is more than enough sample size to be accurate. There is a very specific formula for calculating the necessary sample size for a population. For a population of 233K, you can get a 1% margin of error and a 99% Confidence Interval with a sample size of 15,476. A 1% margin of error and 99% CI are extremely high thresholds. The sample size could very reasonable be lower if those thresholds are relaxed. For example, if you went with a 95% CI and a 3% margin of error, you only need a sample size of 1,063.

 

[Overdrive]

I'd like to see a comparison with the way CPW does the survey now and do a 3-5 year mandatory harvest survey and see what the numbers come out like. I bet it would be eye opening for sure.

 

[Marble]

If the numbers posted by CPW above are correct, then that is more than enough sample size to be accurate. There is a very specific formula for calculating the necessary sample size for a population. For a population of 233K, you can get a 1% margin of error and a 99% Confidence Interval with a sample size of 15,476. A 1% margin of error and 99% CI are extremely high thresholds. The sample size could very reasonable be lower if those thresholds are relaxed. For example, if you went with a 95% CI and a 3% margin of error, you only need a sample size of 1,063.

I had the same thoughts. Surveying 25 % of the entire hunting group is impressive.

I will look at the stats usually annually and consider them. Usually looking for more of a trend. I also like to look at days hunted stats too. Tells a big story. But I also talk to other hunters I know that I trust and make a decision from there. Using their info and my own experience I know that I can beat the odds of what the harvest reports says almost without exception.

CA started doing mandatory harvest reporting. $20 fee if you don't do it within a certain date. I hate this state!!!

 

[satchamo]

I imagine it would cost a fortune to run at that scale. Golden Gate Canyon SP isn’t gonna pay for itself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They just need to setup a call in system that has nothing but touch tone voice guided answers then enters the information into a database and spits out a confirmation number you write on your tag - this is how IL does it.

Or you host a portal where you login online to enter this information and you get your confirmation number. This is how Indiana does it...

Again, some front end work and a few folks to maintain it and you’re done. That’s got to me way more cost effective than hiring humans to make phone calls to everyone in the state...

I think the western states could learn a lot from the states east of the Mississippi....

 

[elkocd]

From what I've seen hunting 10-15% success areas/seasons, either they are way off or people in CO just don't know how to hunt. Can't imagine how you couldn't be 100% from what I've seen.

 

[orionthehunter1]

If the numbers posted by CPW above are correct, then that is more than enough sample size to be accurate. There is a very specific formula for calculating the necessary sample size for a population. For a population of 233K, you can get a 1% margin of error and a 99% Confidence Interval with a sample size of 15,476. A 1% margin of error and 99% CI are extremely high thresholds. The sample size could very reasonable be lower if those thresholds are relaxed. For example, if you went with a 95% CI and a 3% margin of error, you only need a sample size of 1,063.

Maybe but the unit I hunt has had the same percent success for the last 11 years. It is either the most consistent unit ever or they are not surveying enough people for that unit. That is the other issue are they surveying enough people throughout all the units? My guess is the majority of those surveyed were in draw units.

 

[Randall]

They just need to setup a call in system that has nothing but touch tone voice guided answers then enters the information into a database and spits out a confirmation number you write on your tag - this is how IL does it.

Thats how Missouri does it too. We must check in deer and turkey either by phone or online.

I was looking at this thread thinking yall were just talking about Unit usage statistics. It blows my mind that checking in game isn't mandatory. It's too easy not to do. As mentioned, give a large enough window of time for those that harvest in remote areas and enjoy much better statistics. Hard to see a downside.

 

[orionthehunter1]

New Mexico's system is easy and fast you log in and fill out it literally takes less than two minutes. Oh and the penalty for not doing it you can't enter the draw the following year so it pretty much gurantees 100% participation. This also seems like it would be cheaper than CPW paying people to make all those phone calls

 

[Ratbeetle]

Maybe but the unit I hunt has had the same percent success for the last 11 years. It is either the most consistent unit ever or they are not surveying enough people for that unit. That is the other issue are they surveying enough people throughout all the units? My guess is the majority of those surveyed were in draw units.

They use the same statisticians that had Hillary in a landslide.

60% of the time, it works every time.

 

[cnelk]

If Alaska can do it, Colorado should be able to.

“Hunt reports are important to Alaska wildlife managers. We urge you to quickly report your harvest on the appropriate form. Most general season hunts are reported on a "harvest report" postcard issued along with the "harvest ticket." Permit hunts are reported on a similar form that ADF&G issues along with the permit. In some hunts, your harvest must be reported within a day or two so wildlife managers can ensure harvest quotas are not exceeded. Recognizing the importance of this information, the Alaska Board of Game authorized ADF&G to implement penalties for those who fail to report. Penalties for failing to report include being ineligible to receive any permits the following regulatory year, and may result in being issued a citation by the Alaska Wildlife Troopers.”

 

[ChrisAU]

If Alaska can do it, Colorado should be able to.

“Hunt reports are important to Alaska wildlife managers. We urge you to quickly report your harvest on the appropriate form. Most general season hunts are reported on a "harvest report" postcard issued along with the "harvest ticket." Permit hunts are reported on a similar form that ADF&G issues along with the permit. In some hunts, your harvest must be reported within a day or two so wildlife managers can ensure harvest quotas are not exceeded. Recognizing the importance of this information, the Alaska Board of Game authorized ADF&G to implement penalties for those who fail to report. Penalties for failing to report include being ineligible to receive any permits the following regulatory year, and may result in being issued a citation by the Alaska Wildlife Troopers.”

It is absolutely nuts to me that Alabama requires harvest reporting and Colorado does not. No such thing as a unit/draw/tag system here, yet harvest reporting is mandatory.

 

[RO1459]

In the last ten years I've been contacted, by e-mail, five time. I have never been contacted by phone. Also, you have to be contacted by them. You cannot sign in and "vote". I tried. Sorry.

 

[Marble]

In the last ten years I've been contacted, by e-mail, five time. I have never been contacted by phone. Also, you have to be contacted by them. You cannot sign in and "vote". I tried. Sorry.

Might be how you set your account up with them. You can log in and leave a cell number,take out your email or change the way you want to be contacted.

I like the phone call I get from them. They have all been really nice and it gives me a chance to ask questions. Plus they provide feed back and give you other information you won't get from an email.

I have dealt with them in the past with getting a license/tag refund a few times. They were very accommodating and polite. Idaho was the same. Real people who did a really good job and tried to do things right, and do the right thing.