I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.
Wait a minute… you wouldn’t be surprised if Bigfoot is real?I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.
Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.
Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.
I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.
Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.
Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.
It would be hard to find out in Utah. Did you see what they did when RMEF made a bid to run the Expo?Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.
Same feelings towards aliens too.Wait a minute… you wouldn’t be surprised if Bigfoot is real?
I’m a math guy, not a stats guy, but that can’t be right.You are correct.
I need a statistician.
If you add the odds up for each draw then someone that puts in for all 200 has a 7.8% chance.
I think my post #32 is correct.I’m a math guy, not a stats guy, but that can’t be right.
Let’s say there were 5 individual tags with 5000 applicants each. You have a 1 in 5000 chance of drawing a specific tag and a 5 in 25000 chance in drawing “A” tag. Those odds are the same. I wouldn’t add up the draw odds for a specific tag because as you can see, the odds for both are the same.
If tag applicants are different for each tag and you only apply to a pool of tags, then your odds may be better or worst for that pool compared to apply for all tags.
They don't go up that much, because each tag is its own individual draw, you're not getting 200 shots at each tag. 1/5000+ is the same for every tag. I could see them maybe drawing a turkey tag or something with better odds, but not LE deer and elk tags every year.Not to wade waist deep into this shit storm but those type of people buy and apply in every single drawing.
Odds of drawing a single tag go up when your in all 200 tag draws.
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Many people have done way more stupid shit than this and for a whole lot less. I think it is definitely rigged. The pre draw stats vs the draw outcomes that have consistently happened should at a minimum warrant some sort of investigation. I don't think it would be very hard for law enforcement to blow this whole racket up.Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.
Now do the odds of aWho knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.
this would entail a Utah DA blowing up a racket in SLC. That’s probably the lowest odds of all.Many people have done way more stupid shit than this and for a whole lot less. I think it is definitely rigged. The pre draw stats vs the draw outcomes that have consistently happened should at a minimum warrant some sort of investigation. I don't think it would be very hard for law enforcement to blow this whole racket up.
You have to be there in person to validate your entries, so there are no last minute mail in applications. You can pay for your chances online, but you aren't in the drawing until you show up and validate them at the Expo.The hush guy has the tag, we're all over here doing math b/c we're jealous. That makes us look like the losers.
I wonder how many mail in tickets came in over night at the last minute?
Bigfoots' preferred pronouns are He/ Him, not "it"....... be respectfulI liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.
Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.
Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.
I am far from a statistical genius but I ran the odds for what I applied for.
5 tags
38537 applications
.00013 is my odds of getting one of those 5 tags
Someone who applied for all 200
200 tags
463343 applications
.000432 is the odds of getting one of those 200 tags
I could be wrong, I got a C in stats and havent really used it in 7 years.
Or do you add the odds of each tag to find your odds? I dont remember.
They do not appreciate having capital letters used in their pronouns, it's he/him. Thank you.Bigfoots' preferred pronouns are He/ Him, not "it"....... be respectful