Expo Tags - results

[Ucsdryder]

Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.

 

[CorbLand]

Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.

I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.

Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.

Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.

 

[Ucsdryder]

I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.

Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.

Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.

Wait a minute… you wouldn’t be surprised if Bigfoot is real?

 

[HONEYBADGER]

I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.

Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.

Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.

Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.

It would be hard to find out in Utah. Did you see what they did when RMEF made a bid to run the Expo?

 

[CorbLand]

Wait a minute… you wouldn’t be surprised if Bigfoot is real?

Same feelings towards aliens too.

I have said it many times here. I do not believe big foot exists so if I ever come back and say I saw one, you better believe me.

 

[MuleyFever]

Do they still do the drawing behind closed doors or is it a public event? WItnessed by someone not involved at all?

 

[lilharcher]

You are correct.

I need a statistician.

If you add the odds up for each draw then someone that puts in for all 200 has a 7.8% chance.

I’m a math guy, not a stats guy, but that can’t be right.

Let’s say there were 5 individual tags with 5000 applicants each. You have a 1 in 5000 chance of drawing a specific tag and a 5 in 25000 chance in drawing “A” tag. Those odds are the same. I wouldn’t add up the draw odds for a specific tag because as you can see, the odds for both are the same.

If tag applicants are different for each tag and you only apply to a pool of tags, then your odds may be better or worst for that pool compared to apply for all tags.

 

[CorbLand]

I’m a math guy, not a stats guy, but that can’t be right.

Let’s say there were 5 individual tags with 5000 applicants each. You have a 1 in 5000 chance of drawing a specific tag and a 5 in 25000 chance in drawing “A” tag. Those odds are the same. I wouldn’t add up the draw odds for a specific tag because as you can see, the odds for both are the same.

If tag applicants are different for each tag and you only apply to a pool of tags, then your odds may be better or worst for that pool compared to apply for all tags.

I think my post #32 is correct.

 

[Trial153]

If they were drawn in public, that wouldn’t prevent a padding of the draw if you doing it favor of a group of individuals.

So say you have 5000 tickets. But numbers 1-150 were duplicated 5 time each the likely hood of drawing from that pool of individuals would be significantly greater.

If had to bet on something happening it would be that verse an out right fix

 

[sneaky]

Shocking that some industry types won tags again lol

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[sneaky]

Not to wade waist deep into this shit storm but those type of people buy and apply in every single drawing.

Odds of drawing a single tag go up when your in all 200 tag draws.

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They don't go up that much, because each tag is its own individual draw, you're not getting 200 shots at each tag. 1/5000+ is the same for every tag. I could see them maybe drawing a turkey tag or something with better odds, but not LE deer and elk tags every year.

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[Geewhiz]

The hush guy has the tag, we're all over here doing math b/c we're jealous. That makes us look like the losers.


I wonder how many mail in tickets came in over night at the last minute?

 

[MuleDeerMike]

Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.

Many people have done way more stupid shit than this and for a whole lot less. I think it is definitely rigged. The pre draw stats vs the draw outcomes that have consistently happened should at a minimum warrant some sort of investigation. I don't think it would be very hard for law enforcement to blow this whole racket up.

 

[Minute_of_Antelope]

Who knows the real answer, but fraud is a real deal. If this stuff is true it wouldn’t be hard for a prosecuter to find out and people to go to jail. I find it hard to believe that anybody would be that stupid to take that chance.

Now do the odds of a

Many people have done way more stupid shit than this and for a whole lot less. I think it is definitely rigged. The pre draw stats vs the draw outcomes that have consistently happened should at a minimum warrant some sort of investigation. I don't think it would be very hard for law enforcement to blow this whole racket up.

this would entail a Utah DA blowing up a racket in SLC. That’s probably the lowest odds of all.

 

[sneaky]

The hush guy has the tag, we're all over here doing math b/c we're jealous. That makes us look like the losers.


I wonder how many mail in tickets came in over night at the last minute?

You have to be there in person to validate your entries, so there are no last minute mail in applications. You can pay for your chances online, but you aren't in the drawing until you show up and validate them at the Expo.

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[Schoolhousegrizz]

No luck k for me this year congrats to the winners.

 

[Lil-Rokslider]

I liken this conspiracy to my thoughts on big foot.

Do I believe it exists? No.
Would I be surprised if it does exist? No.

Do I believe its rigged? No.
If proof came out it was rigged, would it surprise me? No.

Bigfoots' preferred pronouns are He/ Him, not "it"....... be respectful

 

[Timberline001]

One of my good friends drew 5 expo tags 5 years in a row a few years back and he just an average Joe. Some people just have the luck. Not me

 

[roadrunner]

I am far from a statistical genius but I ran the odds for what I applied for.

5 tags
38537 applications
.00013 is my odds of getting one of those 5 tags

Someone who applied for all 200

200 tags
463343 applications
.000432 is the odds of getting one of those 200 tags

I could be wrong, I got a C in stats and havent really used it in 7 years.

Or do you add the odds of each tag to find your odds? I dont remember.

Not quite. Even though there are 200 tags, only one hunt type is what you're buying a chance for. Some hunt types have 5 tags while others only have 1. You're still only getting one application or chance for that hunt type, not the number of tags available for that hunt type. A hunt type is San Juan archery bull and another is a Central Manti late season bull.

To win a hunt, it would be like walking up to a bucket with 2,995 white marbles and 5 green marbles. A green marble is a tag. You only get one chance to reach in and pull a marble. Out of 3,000 guys standing in line, 5 will pull a green marble. Your odds are still only 1:3,000 for that hunt type. Now repeat this process with the other remaining hunt types offered against the tags offered and number of applicants per hunt type.

 

[IDVortex]

Bigfoots' preferred pronouns are He/ Him, not "it"....... be respectful

They do not appreciate having capital letters used in their pronouns, it's he/him. Thank you.