Elk Draw Trends, By onX Hunt

[Jdeck09]

Competition for tags just keeps getting tougher. In December, onX published an article with data from eight western states to help understand this issue. Check it out.

Elk Draw Trends

At some point, I hope eastern states see the potential revenue and opportunity for creating more and more high quality hunts.

The public land I hunt hasn't had any maintenance in 20 years and our national forest don't even touch the glory days 20 years ago. Maybe better opportunity everywhere would help take pressure off the western states

 

[williaada]

As a NR I find the graph listed on the first page funny, and actually helpful in my quests to hunt each year.

 

[Bow-hnt]

Unfortunately, all are ideas on how to fix these issues, fall on deaf ears.

 

[Team4LongGun]

No. Not even close. Your statement is totally ridiculous. No where did I say anything even close to that. Nowhere did I even mention privatizing wildlife.

Just something needs to happen to limit the number of applications. It’s too easy now. You should have to front all of the money to apply. And as a NR, you should have to buy a full fledged license first. That would force most hunters to be selective where they apply and not carpet bomb the West with applications using money (credit cards) they don’t even have.

While I agree wholeheartedly that western hunting is getting overcrowded and changing the very dynamic that we all have come to love, any changes to "limit the number of applications/hunters" has a consequence.

For instance, your idea, if implemented would most likely work at reducing numbers. But spin the table for a second, and lets implement the next guy's idea. Guess what...his idea favors his situation-whether it be financial, geographical, means of any kind, etc.
Your idea cuts out others who love to hunt, while others ideas could cut you and others out.

I could go on a rant regarding Idaho capping NR DAV tags. I can make some seriously good arguments with valid points, but there are just as many (clearly more) civilians that feel a different way. I and many others lost that battle.

This closely resembles some of the many other arguments/discussion/"solutions" folks come up with. Such as, NR allocation numbers being cut, the "then move to a western state if you love hunting that much", NR's fund the economy/conservation, etc.

What I am getting at it this. I'd love to have more opportunities at tags and hunts. So would everyone else. Making a change that YOU can swing or handle invariably cuts someone else out. So the whole solution pool is full of boiled down selfish ideas.

There are a ton of intelligent folks on here, it's been discussed at length to say the least. I really don't think there is a fair solution to any of it. I decided to move my family where we can enjoy the most hobbies and recreational activities that we could take advantage of, and I stand in line as a NR with everyone else waiting to draw a tag.

 

[Daltonlovins88]

Good luck folks! Looking at CO GMU 055 this year with my dad

 

[HNTR918]

Haha!
It's amazing how the scale on this graph was played with to sway your opinion.
The 2022 bar should only be ~27% larger than the 2019.
Instead they changes the visual to make it look like a ~600-700% increase...

 

[ladogg411]

Haha!
It's amazing how the scale on this graph was played with to sway your opinion.
The 2022 bar should only be ~27% larger than the 2019.
Instead they changes the visual to make it look like a ~600-700% increase...

100%.

Using a zero value baseline is quite possibly rule #1 of designing a bar graph.

Such a logical error from a company like OnX/Toprut makes me question the faith I have placed in their products. There are logic problems much more difficult than this that they claim to have a grasp of.

Toprut can’t handle this, but I’m supposed to believe that they can model NR draw odds for complicated states?

 

[goat73]

Here's a better view they should have posted. Had to get some Excel practice in

I think we'll see continued interest in all areas of hunting since the pandemic pushed so many outdoors. As previously-questioned though, it'll be interesting to see what happens when the economy turns. I'm hoping there's a majority that applies 'just because' and they'll forget about it in the next few years.

 

[HNTR918]

See, now that tells the real story. Still a definite increased but not 6X...

 

[Beaglegun]

Looks like covid got people thinking they better go hunt because there might not be a tomorrow.

View attachment 525844
View attachment 525854

People bought more tags cause they got fake covid money. Its easier to apply with somebody else's money

 

[grizz19]

I wish all states would go to a system like Idaho or New Mexico.
I look at my daughter who is almost 2, and yes there may be some youth opportunities but once that’s over, what are the odds she will ever catch and draw a high quality elk tag? I myself couldn’t force a draw on a lot of these quality tags till past being dead so the chances of her drawing in her lifetime will even be less. I know a lot of the old timers with max points will hate me for this but it opens up opportunity for for everyone. Young to old, everyone stands just as god of a chance to draw a tag.

 

[SportingSLC]

I just wish there could be something done in lieu of waiting for 5 years once you draw a Limited Entry Tag before you can apply again (the rule in Utah anyway) like performing service hours to various conservation groups.

 

[Wyoklaelk]

Looks like covid got people thinking they better go hunt because there might not be a tomorrow.

View attachment 525844
View attachment 525854

chart crime.....Y-axis to zero please

 

[bb1]

Competition for tags just keeps getting tougher. In December, onX published an article with data from eight western states to help understand this issue. Check it out.

Elk Draw Trends

Helpful, thanks for sharing

 

[wpriest75]

I drew a cow tag this year in Az But the unit it’s in is overwhelmingly private land. My fault as I did not research the unit beforehand and relied on my hunting buddy’s recommendation. Will probably go and sit in the woods for a few days. Good luck to all that drew a tag

 

[Browtine908]

This right here. I’ve seen similar trend lines with a number of hobbies and discretionary activity. The article said NR apps are up 22.68% 2018-2021, while resident are just up ~9.5%.

That reads to me like pent up demand from lack of travel oops during COVID restrictions and booming economy. With travel back to normal and a cooling economy, bet these numbers plateau.

I've thought the same thing. I witnessed huge increases in the otc units in Idaho during the Covid fall. Then again the next season but slightly less. Getting out to the mountains was a natural outlet at the time. But now that things are back to normal mom and dad have allocate time and money for that trip to Disney land or whatever. I would imagine things will slow down.
However, more and more people are getting better affiliated with these resources that garner them the knowledge to create new opportunities they would have otherwise not had. So i don't anticipate any decrease at all, but more of a stabilized number of hunters across the northwest.

 

[cprentice32]

I didn't really start applying out of state until I was in my mid 30's. I have drawn at least 1 elk, deer or antelope tag every year and 2 once in a lifetime tags, bighorn and bison. I have also drawn an elk tag every year I have applied in 4 different states. Were they top hunt units? 1 was but the rest were far from it, but I have been out hunting every fall since I focused in so I can't complain. I apply in 18 different states every year, mostly Western states but also some Midwest and some back east. Last year I started tracking my spending budget for applications and tag costs. I spent right around $9K. That includes drawing 2 out of state mule deer tags and 1 UT elk tag. I know not everyone has the budget to do that. That being said, it's all a game/gamble. The more opportunities you apply for the higher your odds are of being successful in the draw. Most gamblers know though that it is a game of numbers. Do your research! What are the numbers telling you? There are tons of opportunities out there, but it requires staying up late and pouring through the information that is readily available. Make a strategy that helps you get tags and be realistic in your unit selection and your expectations! You're probably going to have to apply for quasi decent units, at best, and hunt your ass off to be successful, but it's better than complaining about not getting drawn year in and year out.
Also, there are patterns to drawing tags. Figure out those patterns! I have been refining a theory of mine that I noticed after several successful years of application draws. I didn't know I was using this strategy when I first started applying, but so far it has worked out more often than not. It's not a guarantee (what is), but the point is that I saw something about the draws and how they are conducted that has given me an advantage to drawing tags. Unfortunately I won't divulge what the pattern is but it has worked in Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah. I am testing it on the Alaska draw this year with a muskox and caribou application.
This is a long-winded way of saying, start looking at things differently. Change up where, how and when you are applying and you will be surprised when you start defying the trend.

 

[Hackleback]

We all can still hunt elk every year, there are multiple states with OTC tags. Ya, it might not be the unit or time you want, 400” bulls around every corner, and solitude in the woods, but you are out elk hunting.

 

[trophyhill]

OnX and others like them are a huge part of/in the commercialization of hunting. This has brought out the most lazy of the lazy and rewards lazy for a price......

 

[PredatoronthePrairie]

^ my bad. Guess I'm lazy cause I don't wanna get ******* lost when Im in the middle of no where.