Draw odds increase

[flatlander51]

Anyone else think this corona virus and economy shut down could keep some people home this year ultimately increasing draw odds as a result?

 

[Chad E]

New Mexico and Montana results did not follow that theory. It probably depends on what state and species your talking about as to whether or not there's a change.

 

[fatlander]

Next 5 years or so will probably be a different story. 30% unemployment will most certainly increase draw odds. As a proud American, I’d rather have harder to draw tags. A lot of people are going to be seriously hurting for a long time over this disease and it’s economic impacts.


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[flatlander51]

Definitely don’t want anyone to think I’m overlooking the fact that people are suffering. I am praying for a full recovery of our country and the people directly impacted by this horrible epidemic. Just had me thinking this could impact my chances at drawing a deer tag in Wyoming or co.

 

[fatlander]

I don’t think we’ll see it this year. The true economic impacts won’t set in for another 6 months or so. Once people have burned through the government hand outs, their own reserves, and banks come knocking the defaulted payments.


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[5MilesBack]

It may effect how many people actually show up to hunt, but I don't expect it to have any effect on the draw odds.

 

[ElkArcher918]

I think draw odds for LE hunts will stay the same this year. I have a feeling that alot of NR hunters, especially from out East, will be turning in tags due to financial reasons, health concerns, and State restrictions on travel. Crazy world we live in now.

 

[MuleyFever]

NM was in before it got bad. It will be interesting to see app numbers for NV, AZ deer, and WY deer and antelope.

 

[BuzzH]

Nothing will change. The high unemployment is skewed pretty heavily toward the service industry and low paying jobs. The employees doing that kind of work, sadly, weren't affording NR hunting even under the "booming" economy prior to covid19.

Draw odds will continue to get worse and worse like they have since I started applying in 1979. Point creep will continue.

Wishful thinking that odds and/or tag demand will decline...isn't going to happen.

 

[NUGGET]

I agree with BuzzH. In fact I think some max point holders are burning points because of covid they will have more time to hunt. A friend cashed in his moose points early because he’s on 4 10s rest the year to avoid co workers. I think the allure of the possibility of less people in the field too might get some people dumping points.

 

[ckleeves]

Judging from the Colorado sheep and goat recap, new applicants were down slightly but not very much in the grand scheme of things. Still WAY more people jumping in then there was when fees had to be fronted.


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[Poser]

I saw somewhere that CO elk applications were up 40,000 over last year. Might be higher than usual returned tags, though. Or maybe people don’t show up.

 

[Fatcamp]

We were able to reserve campsites for the week before and week after the 4th of July weekend this morning. Could have had our pick the weekend of as well. There were a pile of sites available in all of the best campgrounds along the Missouri River. Normally, we would be stalking the reservation page for cancellations.

Not a perfect correlation but sure is an indication to us that they things are waaay off from normal. I will say that the local turkey woods have been busier than normal, but hard to say if resident travel/big game tags will be the same. We live in eastern SD but hunt western as do many others. Will people who have lost significant income spend money to travel and maybe bring home meat? Hard to say.

As far as only poor sandwich makers being affected financially by this event I think you are way off base, Buzz. Many of my friends who own construction companies have seen their remodel contracts cancelled and drop to zero. Only new construction is keeping them afloat. My wife and her co-workers are highly educated, very well paid, individuals who won't find out until July 1 if their contracts will be resigned. I work for the largest health care provider in South Dakota and we have hundreds if not thousands of educated and well paid people furloughed until further notice. This is crushing the economy. Crushing.

 

[MuleyFever]

I saw somewhere that CO elk applications were up 40,000 over last year. Might be higher than usual returned tags, though. Or maybe people don’t show up.

That seems like a huge increase. I wonder if it includes people applying for a tag that previously just put in for points?

Also, some of that could be due to the new draw units that were OTC.

 

[OXN939]

I saw somewhere that CO elk applications were up 40,000 over last year. Might be higher than usual returned tags, though. Or maybe people don’t show up.

Do you happen to remember where it was that you saw this? I'm quite interested in how this will shake out, and have heard a bunch of different stuff but it's all second or third-hand. A thread on here a few weeks ago mentioned that Montana had seen 41% fewer NR combo applications than last year.

 

[Chad E]

A thread on here a few weeks ago mentioned that Montana had seen 41% fewer NR combo applications than last year.

I "heard" the same thing in a few different places pre draw but I don't believe it at this point. I know far to many people who did not draw Montana NR tags for that kind of a decline to really be accurate. A 41% decline in applications across the board would of made Montana 100% draw for NR tags.

 

[OXN939]

I "heard" the same thing in a few different places pre draw but I don't believe it at this point. I know far to many people who did not draw Montana NR tags for that kind of a decline to really be accurate. A 41% decline in applications across the board would of made Montana 100% draw for NR tags.

Yeah. I also have a hard time buying 40,000 more elk applications than last year... that is a pretty huge increase (almost 1/6th) at a time when many Americans have had a significant tangential or direct loss of disposable funds in the past two months. We'll see soon. Hoping NV's applications were way down at the peak of the panic, threw a Hail Mary to start collecting bonus points there this year

 

[Fatcamp]

Isn't Montana's draw over? You can't tell how many people applied? Not a huge surprise, just wouldn't imagine that number would be hard to find.

 

[DenverCountryBoy]

Part of the increase in Colorado elk applications is a few units switched from OTC archery to LE.

 

[Mark S]

i also heard CO had a large increase. Alot of the draws took place before corona hit, so, like others, the effect might be felt in the coming year?