Drastic Draw Odds difference between OnX and GoHunt

[DKSOutdoorsman]

I’ve used OnX for mapping/gps for years and hadn’t touched GoHunt until today because this is my last year as a NV resident and I have 5 points for Elk so I’m using every resource available. That being said, I was expecting the two to be off a little bit but OnX is saying my draw odds are way higher than GoHunt is saying so I’m wondering if anybody else has run into that too. I double checked the points I entered and all that. For example, GoHunt says my draw odds for Unit 75 is 12%, but OnX says 33.53%. That’s over a 20% difference.

 

[wapitibob]

Completely dependent on how they run their projections, and they run them on last years data.

 

[LFC911]

Sample size is very small as well (i.e. 3 apps), which could play into it?!?

 

[DKSOutdoorsman]

I am willing to accept donations if you would like my sample size to be bigger

 

[onX Hunt]

I’ve used OnX for mapping/gps for years and hadn’t touched GoHunt until today because this is my last year as a NV resident and I have 5 points for Elk so I’m using every resource available. That being said, I was expecting the two to be off a little bit but OnX is saying my draw odds are way higher than GoHunt is saying so I’m wondering if anybody else has run into that too. I double checked the points I entered and all that. For example, GoHunt says my draw odds for Unit 75 is 12%, but OnX says 33.53%. That’s over a 20% difference.

DKS, as mentioned above there are a lot of ways to run draw odds so there is always a bit of variability. One core difference between what we do and say the PDFs the state shares is we run simulations of the state draws, to mimic the same way the state runs its draws, and we'll run these simulations up to over 100K times until we get statistical significance to ensure the odds are as accurate as possible. The difference with how the state runs a draw is they run it one single time, and then posts those results. So although those are the "truth" of what happened, it's likely if they ran the same draw a second time, the results would be very different. Long story short, we try to get the most accurate, and statistically significant version of what could have happened in the draw so users can plan around that. Some of the other draw tools out there post the state results as the state posts them (one single drawing), or run their own simulations potentially in a different manner than we do, which is why you see some variance between the draw tool options.

Hope that helps and thanks for the comment here. Feel free to email me that unit specifically you were looking at and I'll dig in and see what I can discover about it for you. Thanks again!

Paul Ronto - onX Hunt Product Manager ([email protected])