Colorado mule deer 2021

[sndmn11]

If I understand the CO Reports correctly for 2020:

• 46,336 Non-Residents applied for a Deer Pref Point​
• 72,987 Non-Residents applied for a Deer Hunting License for a 1st Choice​
• 15,742 Non-Residents (not including youth) drew a Deer Hunting License​

I will look at it later this evening.

 

[NABG Hunter]

Third combined this year is going to be a full moon most of the season, we'll see how it affects the kill.

In my experience that helps the animals more than the hunter.

 

[robby denning]

I have been applying in CO and 7 other western states for 20 years. Also, I subscribe to a couple services that specialize in this kind of information. They are both telling me 3-5 points. I'm going with 4-5 points based on how many points it took to draw a tag last year, and the later dates this year. Last year I drew a tag with 20 points. My son with 19 did not draw. Previously it only took 16-17 points to draw this specific tag. 16-17 means that everybody with 17 points drew and only some of the people with 16 points drew. I was planning on applying for a tag that had previously taken 19 points to draw and luckily had an expert tell me that I didn't stand a chance. He told me that the only tags I had a shot at were ones that had previously only taken 16-17 points to draw. I'm glad I listened to him he was exactly right

The later dates this year make these tags that much more desirable. People that have just been building points for YEARS, will actually apply for tags this year. as they did last year.

There will be a sense of urgency to draw a tag (as soon as possible) as these later dates will benefit the hunter and not the deer. Many/more of the older age class deer will get killed. Hunters who were only seeing ...thus killing 2-3 year old deer will be on 4-5-6 years old deer. Which means fewer bucks in the older age classes will be surviving for later years. These later dates will dramatically decrease the trophy quality in these CO units.. There will still be " X " number of bucks. There will be less older bucks.

My son who now has 20 points will be applying for a tag that last year took 17 points to draw and the year before took 14 points to draw. We are holding our breath as to whether he will draw....he will be right on the point line ...his drawing this tag is not a sure thing. Only time will tell.

My moneys on this scenario


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[sndmn11]

If I understand the CO Reports correctly for 2020:

• 46,336 Non-Residents applied for a Deer Pref Point​
• 72,987 Non-Residents applied for a Deer Hunting License for a 1st Choice​
• 15,742 Non-Residents (not including youth) drew a Deer Hunting License​

Well, I will eat crow here and just call this a big crap shoot.

There are point holders in the high number range that COULD cause a jump in points needed. I have tended to look at the numbers for each hunt code to get an idea of what point holders applied for it last year, and if I care enough, look at prior years to see if there is a somewhat linear climb.

With the below screen shots, I see that there are at least 1,886 NR folks who had 17 points last year and gained a point. This does not include people who applied for other hunt codes unsuccessfully last year with 17+ points and now have 18+. With those numbers, it is possible that the hunt code below COULD go to 29 points just if the top four people who applied for a 1st choice preference point applied for it. That could be said for any hunt code.

After looking at the way the preference point holders are distributed, it might be more likely that needed points jump the most in the lower point units.

 

[jlvandersnick]

NON resident point totals MULE DEER going into the 2021 draw

there are 7540 nonresidents with 12 points or more for mule deer

some highlights

12 pts 1150 applicants
13 pts. 1169
14 pts. 1009
15 pts. 914
20 pts 339
25 pts 94
30 pts 2
31 pts 1

 

[NABG Hunter]

Well, I will eat crow here and just call this a big crap shoot.

There are point holders in the high number range that COULD cause a jump in points needed. I have tended to look at the numbers for each hunt code to get an idea of what point holders applied for it last year, and if I care enough, look at prior years to see if there is a somewhat linear climb.

With the below screen shots, I see that there are at least 1,886 NR folks who had 17 points last year and gained a point. This does not include people who applied for other hunt codes unsuccessfully last year with 17+ points and now have 18+. With those numbers, it is possible that the hunt code below COULD go to 29 points just if the top four people who applied for a 1st choice preference point applied for it. That could be said for any hunt code.

After looking at the way the preference point holders are distributed, it might be more likely that needed points jump the most in the lower point units.

No eating crow necessary. We're all just trying to figure this out together.

 

[Steve O]

The point is this year for CO deer is like no other.

The season is a week later putting what should be the rut solidly in 3rd and 4th season, the DOW wants to massively lower the number of mature bucks because they think those are the CWD spreaders (a huge load of crap), and everyone who has a lot of points is getting worried they have wasted a lot of time amd money and will be trying to draw their dream before it goes poof. I’ve got 15 points. I never wanted to have 15 points. I was going to archery hunt with a buddy in the Gunnison Basin and both times I was ready to use them there were massive winterkills. I hunt a lot of different things in a lot of different places and I have points everywhere. The CO deer points are a huge mental load and I’m going to do my best to be using them in November on a unit that doesn’t take anywhere CLOSE to 15 points. I don’t think the 4-5 point jump for a lot of 3rd and 4th season deer hunts this year will be surprising.

I bet some of the lower tag quantity units jump a whole lot more than that. And it won’t go down either unfortunately as the next few years only drop back one day. High point holders will see high points needed for this year compared to past and it will continue to escalate.

 

[Rickyv]

Great discussion. Thank you all for the advice. There are some smart dudes out there. I kind of chickened out and went with 66 second season. Hopefully I will draw and hopefully I don’t leave too many points on the table. It should be interesting

 

[JLeMieux]

Besides the potential reduced numbers of mature bucks, how do you guys see this impacting archery seasons going forward? I wouldn't think this would cause any kind of point creep, so could it have the opposite effect?

Our plan has been to do a high country archery hunt in the near future. I've never hunted muleys, so the potential decrease in trophy quality bucks is not a deal breaker. I will be looking for any decent buck and more concerned with learning the ins and outs of hunting above treeline.

With that being said, should I be concerned and/or consider cashing points in on a rifle hunt in 2022 instead?

Just thinking out loud. Never really considered going on a rifle hunt for muleys but I'm definitely not opposed.

 

[Steve O]

All those guys burning all those points are not ever going to be in that position again. Going to be harder drawing low point hunts going forward IMO.

 

[jlvandersnick]

Besides the potential reduced numbers of mature bucks, how do you guys see this impacting archery seasons going forward? I wouldn't think this would cause any kind of point creep, so could it have the opposite effect?

Our plan has been to do a high country archery hunt in the near future. I've never hunted muleys, so the potential decrease in trophy quality bucks is not a deal breaker. I will be looking for any decent buck and more concerned with learning the ins and outs of hunting above treeline.

With that being said, should I be concerned and/or consider cashing points in on a rifle hunt in 2022 instead?

Just thinking out loud. Never really considered going on a rifle hunt for muleys but I'm definitely not opposed.

The number of bucks will stay the same. Just be a lot less older... bigger bucks.
The thing that could potentially affect you and what you want to do would be winter kill. It can be brutal in some units of CO. Winter of 07, winter kill took almost ALL of the older bucks, almost ALL of the fawns and about 70% of the does in the Gunnison Basin. There was another milder winter kill in 2014. The Gunnison Basin (ex Units 54, 55, 66, 67) has yet to recover. Right now the number of older bucks is probably 50% of what it was pre 2007.

 

[street]

All those guys burning all those points are not ever going to be in that position again. Going to be harder drawing low point hunts going forward IMO.

how many of those people are primarily elk hunters buying points just to gain one. I'm the opposite. I buy an elk point because it's $7.

 

[robby denning]

Besides the potential reduced numbers of mature bucks, how do you guys see this impacting archery seasons going forward? I wouldn't think this would cause any kind of point creep, so could it have the opposite effect?

Our plan has been to do a high country archery hunt in the near future. I've never hunted muleys, so the potential decrease in trophy quality bucks is not a deal breaker. I will be looking for any decent buck and more concerned with learning the ins and outs of hunting above treeline.

With that being said, should I be concerned and/or consider cashing points in on a rifle hunt in 2022 instead?

Just thinking out loud. Never really considered going on a rifle hunt for muleys but I'm definitely not opposed.

Should be a good year to be an archery hunter. Not saying the points will drop, but the focus is on late-everything right now.


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[cnelk]

The guys pissin all over their boots for the later Colorado deer seasons sure better hope the weather holds.

Pretty good chance of roads being drifted in and deer areas being non-accessible.

Snowmobiles could be a great asset!

 

[Thomas11]

The guys pissin all over their boots for the later Colorado deer seasons sure better hope the weather holds.

Pretty good chance of roads being drifted in and deer areas being non-accessible.

Snowmobiles could be a great asset!

I have concerns w this. I applied second season so not so late. But I’ve never hunted late only in sept and early oct and I’m from the south so I have zero experience w snow and it’s problems. I would assume u could traverse main roads and blacktop roads. Safety is my biggest concern. I’ve hunted elk many yrs just no experience w late dates

 

[slick]

I would assume u could traverse main roads and blacktop roads.

Maybe, but it’s certainly not guaranteed and the further you are from a population center the less likely the roads will be plowed.

Bring extra food & water- should have if you’re planning on camping, warm boots, gloves, hat and a sleeping bag, a shovel (and not some flimsy plastic one) and if you get stuck, don’t panic and organize a place to sleep if necessary.

Also don’t run your car if the tailpipe is snowed in.


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[Thomas11]

Maybe, but it’s certainly not guaranteed and the further you are from a population center the less likely the roads will be plowed.

Bring extra food & water- should have if you’re planning on camping, warm boots, gloves, hat and a sleeping bag, a shovel (and not some flimsy plastic one) and if you get stuck, don’t panic and organize a place to sleep if necessary.

Also don’t run your car if the tailpipe is snowed in.


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Thanks! I’m good w all the camping stuff and surviving. It’s just the navigating and driving part I would be concerned with. Here in the south if we get 3 inches everything is shut down and wrecks everywhere lol

 

[cnelk]

Where I hunt, most of the county roads and some state highways only plow from 7am - 5pm.

Be prepared

 

[McCrapper]

Reading this thread craps me out.... I applied in a unit that gohunt.com predicts 100 percent chance at. Its not a late hunt either or a overly desirable unit . I must get drawn this year.

 

[Nickofthewoods]

Reading this thread craps me out.... I applied in a unit that gohunt.com predicts 100 percent chance at. Its not a late hunt either or a overly desirable unit . I must get drawn this year.

Point Crap scares the crap out of all of us at some point McCrapper.