Colorado Elk Draw - Is it rigged?

[Njtaxi]

Hello Everyone,

My hunting partner and I were unsuccessful in the recent lottery. He has been going to Colorado for Elk every year since the 90s, and has always drawn a tag (cow muzzleloader or rifle, no archery) for area 421. This was the first year that he was unsuccessful (we applied together as a group). His theory is that in the past, he has always submitted the application right away after the opening period. This year, since I was trying to decide if I could go, we submitted our application the last week before the deadline. He believes that the timing of our submission may have affected the outcome of our draw. I would like to believe that it is a fair lottery system and that there are just many more people applying than in the past (since Covid, youtubers, etc). We're probably going to go OTC anyway.

Anyway, do you have any thoughts? He's not complaining, he just made this observation based on past experience and was actually shocked that we didn't get the permit (he told me it was close to 100% that we should draw). Most years he said that there are leftovers.

Have any thoughts?

 

[fmyth]

What hunt code did you put in for? Resident or Non Resident?

Elk - Statistics

Elk hunting statistics

cpw.state.co.us

 

[Nickofthewoods]

The timing of application submission shouldn't affect anything in a true lottery system.

 

[cnelk]

Hunt Code EF041o1M [Cow Muzzleloader] went to the Second Choice by 27% for NonRes

Hunt Code EF041o1R [ Cow Rifle] was 44% with 0 PPs.

Those Hunt Codes were new this year. They used to be a B List license, they are now an A List license. 421 is now grouped with several other GMUs

See page 35 of the Regs

[Always best to read 'Whats New' before applying]

 

[SDHNTR]

Hogwash! Also, Colorado is a preference point state. Luck has little to nothing to do with drawing. The hunt just moved away from you as has been typical in recent years. Welcome to point creep.

 

[wapitibob]

Everybody has theories and every one of them is based on assumptions that can’t and don’t happen.

 

[CoStick]

I drew my elk tag but after looking at the draw data it is no longer a sure thing.

 

[Billy Goat]

It's rigged, has points that favor those who have put in for longer.

 

[MuleyFever]

I'm surprised how many people I have heard say that they think they have better odds by applying earlier here in UT.

 

[Jkr61]

It’s hilarious to me when people come up with these rigged theories. All it would take is one ticked off former employee or even just one honest employee and we would know all about the “rigged” system. No way can people keep their mouths shut

 

[ahlgringo]

Ha, I know the feeling OP. It seems when I initially look at results that are not in my favor- shits rigged!!
I do sometimes question when a percentage of equal point holders draws and percentage doesn’t. In this scenario I have never drawn a tag that was less than 50% at that pt level. This is over the last decade and probably 15 such scenarios most in the 30-50 chance range.

Now- I just put it off as being real unlucky in draws. Would like to think it’s all random and fair given equal points.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jdmaxwell]

Get a different tag. Go hunt.
End of story

 

[Njtaxi]

Thanks for the replies guys...I'll tell my buddy what everyone said! Anyway, like JD said above, we're looking into a different gmu so we can just go and hunt.

 

[Steve from GA]

It’s hilarious to me when people come up with these rigged theories. All it would take is one ticked off former employee or even just one honest employee and we would know all about the “rigged” system. No way can people keep their mouths shut

Kinda reminds me of some current events...

Sorry - had to do it

Back to your regularly scheduled program.

 

[gelton]

It’s hilarious to me when people come up with these rigged theories. All it would take is one ticked off former employee or even just one honest employee and we would know all about the “rigged” system. No way can people keep their mouths shut

I am not one to talk about draws being rigged, but the peeps working on the Manhattan Project did a pretty good job of keeping their mouths shut.

 

[5MilesBack]

Sometimes I wonder just what the heck happens sometimes with some of these draws. I saw one unit this year where a resident used 13 points on a 6 point unit, and DIDN'T draw. The same unit shows 8 residents with 9 points applied, but only 7 drew the tag while many others with less points drew. And you can see these "anomalies" in every year of the stats pages.

That happened to my buddy two years ago. He put in for a 6 point tag with 7 points and didn't draw, while several with 6 points did draw. The DOW couldn't or wouldn't explain how that happens. With their "all internet" applications now, it's impossible to screw up your app......unless you just apply for the wrong unit or hunt. The system won't accept other errors when you apply.

 

[swavescatter]

I am not one to talk about draws being rigged, but the peeps working on the Manhattan Project did a pretty good job of keeping their mouths shut.

Actually a few were commie sympathizers that sent detailed designs the entire time to Russia. Russia essentially had our blueprints for fat man by the end of the war, which is why the US was shocked that they detonated a Russian clone "fat manski" only 5 years after us...

People suck at keeping secrets.

 

[sndmn11]

Sometimes I wonder just what the heck happens sometimes with some of these draws. I saw one unit this year where a resident used 13 points on a 6 point unit, and DIDN'T draw. The same unit shows 8 residents with 9 points applied, but only 7 drew the tag while many others with less points drew. And you can see these "anomalies" in every year of the stats pages.

I'm pretty sure those rows/columns include all choices from 1st to 4th. So the example 13 point applicant doesn't necessarily mean they put in as first choice, if that is correct.

We have seen some strange stuff. My wife and I do not apply as a group. Last year we both drew the same second choice doe phorn tag at 10-20% odds. This year we both separately drew second choice doe deer tags at about 20% odds. She didn't draw the second choice doe phorn tag at better odds this year, while I drew a first choice 10 point buck tag. I haven't done stats in a while, but I think it's statistically harder to stack two low percentage occurrences together.

 

[wapitibob]

Oregon has new draw reports now; shows the seed number(we go up from that number), every app, their points, and their random number. Makes it easy to see why you didn’t draw.

 

[ElkNut1]

If you draw, it's not rigged. If you don't then it's rigged! (grin)

ElkNut