I love insulated air mattresses, but every single one I've owned eventually gets some kind of hole or seam separation. In theory you can fix a hole in the field. In practice, the holes are usually so small that you really need to soak the mattress in water to isolate it and then fix it. Usually what happens for me is the mattress develops a leak and overnight it deflates slowly until it is almost flat in the morning. It continues on that way until I can get home and get a good look at it.
Even then, the holes sometimes end up in very hard to repair areas like between the tubes or edge where a patch is not likely to hold well.
I am very careful with my gear, but for whatever reason the batting average I have with inflatables has been pretty bad. Aside from avoiding sharp points, you need to keep the mattress deflated during the day when you leave your tent otherwise the sun can heat it up and over-expand it causing a failure. This happened to people I know and it ruins the mattress. Also, avoiding small pointed debris, thorns, etc. when camping is extremely hard so eventually you're going to get a leak.
Compressed foam is bombproof, but much less comfortable and a lot bulkier. However, you can use it for sitting on casually during breaks, snow, etc.. which you can't do with air mattresses.
When I'm winter camping I take both. The compressed foam goes down first, then the inflatable. This way I have a safety margin if the air mattress goes belly up. I would never take just an air mattress for winter camping by itself. It really needs a backup in case the worse does happen.
In the end, I trust a compressed foam mattress more just because there is nothing to go wrong. But I like air mattresses just in terms of sheer comfort.
