Bitcoin

[Poser]

I’m not seeing a “considerable drop” in the whole market?


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The vanguard total stock market index fund is down less than %1 for the year, and still up over %11 percent for the past year.

I stand corrected. A lot of stocks are dropping.

 

[cottonant]

Bitcoin drops 13%, breaking below $64,000 as sell-off intensifies, doubts about crypto grow

Some market watchers have suggested $70,000 is a key level to watch and a break below that could lead bitcoin to decline further.

www.cnbc.com

"Doubts about crypto grow?"

 

[Poser]

Did we bounce off the bottom?

 

[cottonant]

Did we bounce off the bottom?

Not sure of its a bottom but my IBIT is up 7.86% for the day as of now.

 

[Silver Wings]

Did we bounce off the bottom?

Absolutely not

 

[Beendare]

I saw a scary analysis for Bitcoin holders, the gist;

The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone.And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives.That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin.

 

[dieselchessy]

Why Is Bitcoin Crashing Today? Analysts Say Synthetic BTC Supply Is the Real Problem

Bitcoin briefly crashed toward $60,000 on February 6, wiping out over $2.6 billion in leveraged positions in 24 hours. That makes it the worst single-day drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Most outlets are blaming macro pressure and weak sentiment. But DeFi researcher CryptoNobler says t…

www.tradingview.com

 

[fmyth]

Did we bounce off the bottom?

Barring some huge black swan event I believe we have seen the bottom at 60k yesterday.

 

[Jake Larsen]

Why Is Bitcoin Crashing Today? Analysts Say Synthetic BTC Supply Is the Real Problem

Bitcoin briefly crashed toward $60,000 on February 6, wiping out over $2.6 billion in leveraged positions in 24 hours. That makes it the worst single-day drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Most outlets are blaming macro pressure and weak sentiment. But DeFi researcher CryptoNobler says t…

www.tradingview.com

Sounds a whole lot like the synthetic CDO’s of yesteryear. I’m not smart enough to know how legitimate this is, but it does make sense logically. Fractional Reserve Bitcoining essentially. Doesn’t mean there isn’t legitimacy to the underlying fundamentals, but it sure could create a lot of volatility.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Silver Wings]

Barring some huge black swan event I believe we have seen the bottom at 60k yesterday.

You’ve seen my posts so you know I’m a long term HODLR, but also an ETF trader. I propose a friendly wager that BTC will go below $60k in calendar year 2026…black swan excluded.
The wager…one 20 round box of your or my favorite factory ammo.
I’m not rooting against BTC, but I fully intend to take advantage of this bear market and at some point will load up heavy in anticipation of the next run.
I’m heading out to re zero my practice rifle after putting a different scope on it…let me know.
Cheers!

 

[eddielasvegas]

Did we bounce off the bottom?

Let's hope it's not a dead cat bounce. Time will tell.


Eddie

 

[cardiac5]

This is my go to guy that keeps me grounded. Can be dry and repetitive but he’s saved/made me a lot. Only watched him this past year but he’s not calling for alt season every day and proves his theories with chart history and is scary accurate.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[fmyth]

You’ve seen my posts so you know I’m a long term HODLR, but also an ETF trader. I propose a friendly wager that BTC will go below $60k in calendar year 2026…black swan excluded.
The wager…one 20 round box of your or my favorite factory ammo.
I’m not rooting against BTC, but I fully intend to take advantage of this bear market and at some point will load up heavy in anticipation of the next run.
I’m heading out to re zero my practice rifle after putting a different scope on it…let me know.
Cheers!

I appreciate the friendly banter but I'd prefer to keep this "us against them' vs. "us against us". I've already made a rather large bet on BTC/ETH/SOL,IBIT/FBTC/MSTR. As of today my positions are down over 7 figs for the year. It's painful to think about but practically irrellevant as I plan to hold for a few more years. Any drop below 60k would be a welcome buying opportunity for me to add to my positions. Hopefully we all make big $$$$ for our conviction and patience.

 

[Silver Wings]

No worries
I’m operating on the assumption that we’ve got several months to make buys that will lower our all in cost. Time will tell.
Yesterday I sold the position I had started building a couple weeks ago. Took a small profit and will start over again when the numbers make sense to me. Once BTC confirmed below $74k I saw it as a sign that the next leg down will be tested. Hopefully I haven’t hosed myself
I understand the pain of looking at the loss on paper, but I’ve come to welcome the volatility as an opportunity to make money in the ETFs and accumulate more of the real thing.
Good luck to you in the short term. In the long term, I think we’re all going to do very well.

 

[Silver Wings]

This is my go to guy that keeps me grounded. Can be dry and repetitive but he’s saved/made me a lot. Only watched him this past year but he’s not calling for alt season every day and proves his theories with chart history and is scary accurate.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah…I like Cowen as well. There are so many shills out there, he’s solid. I also like Gareth Soloway…straight technical analysis, no bs. He always qualifies his analysis with…these are the probabilities as I see them. He called the most recent top…I, of course, wanted to hold out for just a little bit more

 

[fmyth]

Waiting for BTC to drop in price before you make your big move may not make that big of a difference in the long run.

If Bitcoin goes to $1.5M by 2035, entry price matters way less than people think.

Math
$60k → $1.5M ≈ 43% CAGR
$100k → $1.5M ≈ 35% CAGR
$120k → $1.5M ≈ 33% CAGR

Over nearly a decade, a 2× difference in entry only changes returns by ~10% per year. That surprises people. When the outcome is 12×–25×, compounding overwhelms timing. Bitcoin can swing 30–50% in a single year arguing over perfect entry inside that noise misses the point. That’s why DCA works. It’s not about buying “low.” It’s about staying exposed long enough for the curve to do the work.

The biggest mistake isn’t buying too high.It’s not being there at all.

Credit to: @david_eng_mba

 

[Beendare]

IMO, Anyone not trading this on Technicals is making a big mistake.

Projecting Bitcoin going to $1.5m from here is ridiculous. The market action just put the hurt on it....the only folks talking it up are Bitcoin holders that want others to jump in. New investors will be skeptical- it's human nature.

True, I'm not a Bitcoin fan....I am a '10,000 foot view' guy on Bitcoin- no axe to grind either way. I have mentioned that it has no fundamental value for the average person...but it is a big advantage to the large money transaction off book folks. Those folks- mostly crooks- can absorb a big hit in value and it still makes Bitcoin functional as they keep their money out of gov hands and the tax man. It's much like the Columbian Drug dealers that send 20 boats to the US knowing that a % aren't going to make it through- its a cost of doing business.

Holders of Bitcoin should be thankful of these criminal enterprises as they are the ones supporting it.

The market just blew the whistle on the scarcity argument fundamentals....As we knew all along, there are no fundamentals. The scarcity that many relied on is gone, its been manipulated by big money finance [no surprise] and used to back other assets.....who knows how far bitcoin is leveraged? This could end up being a Lehman moment- when everyone realizes at once that the Emperor has no clothes.

I hate to see anyone lose money, let alone 7 figures....but Bitcoin has technical trading written all over it....and right now support is ugly.

Bitcoin fans are lucky this admin has a favorable view and is entangled in it. If they weren't, there would be a very public investigation- a disaster . In the meantime, the holders of Bitcoin without an investigation are left guessing as to how badly this thing is stretched.

I doubt it's the 60X of the Bond disasters....but who really knows?


It has some pretty strong support down in the $28,000 range. If I was trading it, I wouldn't try to buy it on the way down but wait until it holds at one of the support levels. I might even buy some in that $25k-$28k range if it does a huge washout day.

 

[KsRancher]

IMO, Anyone not trading this on Technicals is making a big mistake.

Projecting Bitcoin going to $1.5m from here is ridiculous. The market action just put the hurt on it....the only folks talking it up are Bitcoin holders that want others to jump in. New investors will be skeptical- it's human nature.

True, I'm not a Bitcoin fan....I am a '10,000 foot view' guy on Bitcoin- no axe to grind either way. I have mentioned that it has no fundamental value for the average person...but it is a big advantage to the large money transaction off book folks. Those folks- mostly crooks- can absorb a big hit in value and it still makes Bitcoin functional as they keep their money out of gov hands and the tax man. It's much like the Columbian Drug dealers that send 20 boats to the US knowing that a % aren't going to make it through- its a cost of doing business.

Holders of Bitcoin should be thankful of these criminal enterprises as they are the ones supporting it.

The market just blew the whistle on the scarcity argument fundamentals....As we knew all along, there are no fundamentals. The scarcity that many relied on is gone, its been manipulated by big money finance [no surprise] and used to back other assets.....who knows how far bitcoin is leveraged? This could end up being a Lehman moment- when everyone realizes at once that the Emperor has no clothes.

I hate to see anyone lose money, let alone 7 figures....but Bitcoin has technical trading written all over it....and right now support is ugly.

Bitcoin fans are lucky this admin has a favorable view and is entangled in it. If they weren't, there would be a very public investigation- a disaster . In the meantime, the holders of Bitcoin without an investigation are left guessing as to how badly this thing is stretched.

I doubt it's the 60X of the Bond disasters....but who really knows?


It has some pretty strong support down in the $28,000 range. If I was trading it, I wouldn't try to buy it on the way down but wait until it holds at one of the support levels. I might even buy some in that $25k-$28k range if it does a huge washout day.

I bought in because when you look at a chart its hard to argue with the gains. But after watching it go down when it seems like all you hear is positive new I have started to change my opinion to be more in line with yours. But currently in a bad place. Getting out when down 40% isn't appealing

 

[Beendare]

So here's an interesting stat;
What is up more over a 5 year period.....Bitcoin or the S&P 500 index?

Both about the same up 78%.....crazy that one asset is super specualative and the other is rock solid---I will leave it to you which is which.

The more I look at that chart, the more I might start watching it for Technical trades.

its had a big washout...my guess is it blips up a little bit before another big leg down.

 

[KsRancher]

So here's an interesting stat;
What is up more over a 5 year period.....Bitcoin or the S&P 500 index?

Both about the same up 78%.....crazy that one asset is super specualative and the other is rock solid---I will leave it to you which is which.

The more I look at that chart, the more I might start watching it for Technical trades.

its had a big washout...my guess is it blips up a little bit before another big leg down.

I wish you were right. SPY is up 78% on the 5yr. BTC is up 47% on the 5yr