Bitcoin

From Reddit:

“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.”

......
The world is full of "What Ifs"

What if you would have bought Microsoft on the IPO....or any number of obscure things that made it big?
Bitcoin was relatively obscure when it was below $100.

Bitcoin is well known now......and any investment thesis needs to factor that in.

I see the two main factors as;
1) there are a lot of people with some massive gains in Bitcoin
2) will it go main stream and be accepted as currency

Bitcoin could easily fizzle if the folks that have huge gains scramble to cover in a big downturn- thats just basic human psychology.

I revaluate my investments continually asking myself,"Would I buy it now at this price?"
[FWIW, I don't consider Bitcoin an investment as you don't own anything to evaluate, its made up currency with no backing]

Back when Bitcoin was $5 you didn't have much to lose, now at $80,000 or so, it's different.

The guys that owned it way back when are counting on others to keep buying it....but it's self limiting at these high prices....plus the volatility....... which will act as a cap on the price. Guys buying now need to realize that. The fact the big trading companies are getting involved just indicates there will be more trading in it with bets trying to make money off the volatility.
 
6.5% What the heck is going on?
1. Japan bond market is imploding. (This has been brewing for a while now)

2. China warned of a resurgence in crypto speculation and vowed a stricter crackdown, especially on stablecoins. (umpteenth time this has happened)

3. Market makers took the opportunity to wipe out 2B of leveraged longs. (Happens every time leveraged longs reach a new high)
 
6.5% What the heck is going on?
Just watch a few videos on the 4 year cycle. This should not be a surprise to anyone who’s held BTC for more than a minute.
I believe that no one who’s held BTC for 4 years has never lost money still holds true. So if you bought near the top of this cycle just hold it and don’t sweat it. Add when you can to get your average down.
 
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