Bitcoin

[KsRancher]

I’ve been getting questions about whether I’m losing confidence in Bitcoin or if my view on it has changed because of the recent price drop. The answer is no. While other assets (AI stocks) are riding the wave of all this hot easy money, Bitcoin will just keep tracking how much government currencies are getting weaker and worth less over time.

If I am understanding your post correct then BTC will continue to go down?

 

[Braaap]

If I am understanding your post correct then BTC will continue to go down?

I expect it to.

 

[KsRancher]

I really dont want anything to do with something that tracks our government currencies. We have all seen how devalued they have been.

 

[RockAndSage]

Separate from crypto being a leading indicator of where the economy's going, a very big part of what's happening with the price of BTC is that large institutions are pulling capital out of their most liquid investments to get ready for the SpaceX IPO.

You can track crypto wallets, and the big holders have been vacuuming up massive quantities of key cryptos for about 6 months now - steadily, without trying to impact the price much. It's not like they suddenly think crypto's dead or a bad investment. They're simply pulling that easily accessed money out to put it into a generationally enormous IPO.

Again, crypto's going to go down awhile longer, possibly with at least one more bump then a dump again, as the business cycle peaks then turns down. When that downturn finally clicks, the Fed, ECB, and Japan's central bank are all going to start printing money in volume to ease the crash. Once that happens, the price of crypto is going to explode higher, for years. Again, leading indicator - and the stock markets aren't far behind.

Warren Buffett once said something that applies here: Sell when everyone's greedy, buy when everyone's fearful.

Crypto is on sale right now. We've got about 2-6 months more of these firesale prices, and then these prices are gone forever. Even in the next business cycle bottom years from now, they'll be a lot higher than they are today.

 

[MountainTracker]

I really dont want anything to do with something that tracks our government currencies. We have all seen how devalued they have been.

I don’t think you’re tracking what he’s saying. He’s referring to when Fiat devalues assets melt up not down.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[fmyth]

I really dont want anything to do with something that tracks our government currencies. We have all seen how devalued they have been.

Bitcoin does not "track our government currencies". BTC has a fixed supply but the dollar does not. When our government prints large quantities of USD, assets with a fixed or very limited supply increase in value. The US has 39T in debt and will continue to print USD forever.

 

[fmyth]

If I am understanding your post correct then BTC will continue to go down?

I don't think we will see BTC above all time highs until after the 3 big IPO's, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are complete. When the lock up periods on those 3 come up I think we will see whales selling which will usher in the rotation out of AI stocks and back into BTC. BTC will most likely trade in a sideways range for the remainder of this year before trending up again. Another large sudden drop would not surprise me. I don't need the money I've invested in BTC today. I'm willing to ride out the volatility for 3-5 years.

 

[fmyth]

$12.6 trillion Charles Schwab explains why their "entire framework" for investing in Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2062560730889547923

Charles Schwab

 

[WRO]

What do you mean by that? I have weekly dividend MARO and curious how it will be affected. Doing well right now.

Usually Mara is connected to BTC and the price action mirrors it, it disconnected for a bit, I lost some money on my put strategy. I’m going to watch and see where this goes for a bit.

 

[KsRancher]

Bitcoin does not "track our government currencies". BTC has a fixed supply but the dollar does not. When our government prints large quantities of USD, assets with a fixed or very limited supply increase in value. The US has 39T in debt and will continue to print USD forever.

OK. I misunderstood your post. I dont need the money today either. Actually dont need it for 20+yrs. So willing to wait as long as it's seems like it will be a good investment worth the wait

 

[RockAndSage]

OK. I misunderstood your post. I dont need the money today either. Actually dont need it for 20+yrs. So willing to wait as long as it's seems like it will be a good investment worth the wait

Man, if your time horizon is 20 years, whatever you have between now and about Oct/Nov will be worth an absolute fortune by then.

 

[Silver Wings]

Bought more MSTR and COIN today…gotta get my average down. Also bought an ETF to get restarted there. We should have until fall to take advantage of these prices.

 

[IdahoElk]

If I am understanding your post correct then BTC will continue to go down?

All these "expert" investors have gotten it wrong from the beginning, I wouldn't be taking anyones advice on this board.

 

[fmyth]

All these "expert" investors have gotten it wrong from the beginning, I wouldn't be taking anyones advice on this board.

I've never claimed to be an expert. I started investing in BTC back in 2018. Here's the chart showing BTC's price from 2018 to today. I've done well for a non expert.

 

[KsRancher]

I got in roughly here

 

[RockAndSage]

I got in roughly here

You still got in. But good lord, whatever you do, don't take a loss on it. It'll get back up there in a year or two. I feel the pain though - getting in on something at the high end of a cycle is rough to ride through if you're holding for long term.

 

[KsRancher]

You still got in. But good lord, whatever you do, don't take a loss on it. It'll get back up there in a year or two. I feel the pain though - getting in on something at the high end of a cycle is rough to ride through if you're holding for long term.

I will keep holding. I use the S&P 500 as my way to hold it. If you bought it in April 2000 you would have had to hold it for 12yrs to get back to even. That's a long hold just to break even.