AZ Kaibab early hunt worth it?

[Falro]

Needing advice on what to do with my points.

I was fortunate enough to have a father who applied in AZ for me when I was younger and am now 25 years old sitting on 17 points as a NR for deer, elk and sheep.
After doing a lot of research I realize even with having a few points I’ll never be able to draw a strip tag in the foreseeable future and the late 12a & 12b tags will be out of reach for a long long time as well, so I started considering the early rifle hunts.
My question is has anyone been on any of the early rifle hunts in 12aw-12ae-12b and what is a reasonable expectation on those hunts?
Or should I wait and hope to draw a late tag possibly some day?

 

[Tberg]

Don't blow 17 points on the early kaibab hunt. Keep applying for the late hunts. You might be able to draw 12b late a little easier. The Utah deer migrate through 12b before the get to 12a. Some good bucks get killed on early hunts but IMO you can do just as good on a 3-4pt Colorado 3rd season hunt as early Kaibab. Half the NR tags go in the random pass of the draw, stay with the late kaibab hunt or look at the 2-3 other December rifle hunts and hunt the rut. Just my 2¢

 

[Falro]

Don't blow 17 points on the early kaibab hunt. Keep applying for the late hunts. You might be able to draw 12b late a little easier. The Utah deer migrate through 12b before the get to 12a. Some good bucks get killed on early hunts but IMO you can do just as good on a 3-4pt Colorado 3rd season hunt as early Kaibab. Half the NR tags go in the random pass of the draw, stay with the late kaibab hunt or look at the 2-3 other December rifle hunts and hunt the rut. Just my 2¢

Thanks for the advice, you’re probably right. I’m just itching to get out there and the point creep is getting depressing. Do you know if the 12bw tag is a decent hunt or is it hit or miss?

 

[Tberg]

12B late is a good hunt.

 

[Dwnw/theAltitudesickness]

Second the comments by Tberg, don't go early on 12B for sure. Early is migration dependent, some other posts on here to search for around the 12 B early hunt. Keep after the late tag. At your age you will be able to hunt it.... eventually.

 

[ChanceB]

Hey Falro I was in a similar situation as you this spring. I decided to hunt the early hunt in 12AW and I'm more than happy with my decision. I am not sure where you are located but I made 3 separate scouting trips trips down there and I think that contributed a lot to my success. Is the early hunt a cake walk? No. Can you do very well on it? Yes. Its a 10 day hunt and I tagged out on day 2 with my biggest buck to date.

 

[Wapiti1]

What Chance did is the only way to have a real shot at success on the early hunt. The deer are up high in the thick stuff and you have to root them out. It's all about scouting IMO and sitting on a buck that you found. But, it's not just you. They give a lot of tags on the early hunts. 12AW would be the better tag to have, IMO.

I wouldn't spend the points from Ohio unless you have a job where you can spend several weeks scouting.

Jeremy

 

[Oilcan]

That is a Awesome early season Buck, Hell that’s a great Buck for any season.
I‘m 2 under max with the tag cuts and the rule changes that puts me in no man’s land but I’m gonna hold out for the late hunt or die with my points one of the two.

 

[ChanceB]

If you are in Ohio and scouting isn’t a real option for you then I would hold out. It’s to big of a unit to learn with to thick of country to not spend some time there beforehand IMO. Like Jeremy said, in the early hunt the deer are all still hanging high in the ponderosas and Aspen and it can be really hard to find them. Also lots of hunters that will be hunting the more obvious places so you need to have some little hidden places on the unit for you to escape to. Given your location I think the late hunt would be a better option purely from a logistical standpoint.

 

[ChanceB]

That is a Awesome early season Buck, Hell that’s a great Buck for any season.
I‘m 2 under max with the tag cuts and the rule changes that puts me in no man’s land but I’m gonna hold out for the late hunt or die with my points one of the two.

Thank you sir! I was real happy with him. My dad is in the same situation with 1 under max. Have you gotten your hunter Ed bonus point? As far as holding out I would do the exact same thing with your amount of points.

 

[Oilcan]

Thank you sir! I was real happy with him. My dad is in the same situation with 1 under max. Have you gotten your hunter Ed bonus point? As far as holding out I would do the exact same thing with your amount of points.

Yes I got my Hunter Ed point about 13 years ago. The problem is there are people with max points who are giving up on the strip and using them on the late hunts. I don’t blame them if your a NR with max and in your 50-60’s you still may never draw while your able to get around.
Regarding the OP even at 25 he may never draw a Late bonus tag unless there are big tag increases in the future look at the stats there are about 1500 ahead of him. With only a handful of late tags it could be many many years to get to him, he may draw a random sure but that’s not really a plan.
these are numbers from 2021.

 

[ChanceB]

Yes I got my Hunter Ed point about 13 years ago. The problem is there are people with max points who are giving up on the strip and using them on the late hunts. I don’t blame them if your a NR with max and in your 50-60’s you still may never draw while your able to get around.
Regarding the OP even at 25 he may never draw a Late bonus tag unless there are big tag increases in the future look at the stats there are about 1500 ahead of him. With only a handful of late tags it could be many many years to get to him, he may draw a random sure but that’s not really a plan.
these are numbers from 2021.
View attachment 493462

Yeah there is pretty drastic point creep in the Kaibab late hunts. Even in the early there is some. The point creep is what ultimately made me decide to hunt the early. The way it was trending I would only be guaranteed another 3-4 years and then I wouldn’t even be guaranteed on the early. I also knew I had the time and resources to hunt it properly. Crazy to think a 25 year old might never draw a late tag but that’s just the reality of it.

 

[Thejet]

I must be missing something here…..12AW takes 15 points to draw the early hunt, seems like you are only 1-2 points above the bare minimum to pull that tag. The late tags are taking 24+ which with point creep you probably will never come close to catching. So you could spend the next 20 years in the random with middle ground points that basically mean nothing or you can go hunt then be basically at the same place in the random for the next 20 years. You are more likely to be outrun by point creep to where you can’t even get the early than you are to catch the late.

 

[Falro]

I must be missing something here…..12AW takes 15 points to draw the early hunt, seems like you are only 1-2 points above the bare minimum to pull that tag. The late tags are taking 24+ which with point creep you probably will never come close to catching. So you could spend the next 20 years in the random with middle ground points that basically mean nothing or you can go hunt then be basically at the same place in the random for the next 20 years. You are more likely to be outrun by point creep to where you can’t even get the early than you are to catch the late.

That’s my fear

 

[Falro]

Hey Falro I was in a similar situation as you this spring. I decided to hunt the early hunt in 12AW and I'm more than happy with my decision. I am not sure where you are located but I made 3 separate scouting trips trips down there and I think that contributed a lot to my success. Is the early hunt a cake walk? No. Can you do very well on it? Yes. It’s a 10 day hunt and I tagged out on day 2 with my biggest buck to date.View attachment 493245View attachment 493246View attachment 493247

Congrats on the buck! That’s a stud!
How crowded was that hunt? And how many deer were you seeing a day?

 

[HuntHarder]

Totally your call. Early hunt can have early snow and be a great hunt. If no snow, big bucks can still be had, but they are much tougher to locate. You have pretty low odds of ever getting a tag in the BP phase for the late hunts, but you still have a chance at a tag in the 1-2 phase of the draw. Odds are slim, but at least you have a chance. 80% of the tags go to lucky guys.

With dwindling tag #'s on the late hunts, point creep will surely out run you. I am sitting on 15 as a resident and have my own doubts that I will ever catch up.

 

[ChanceB]

Congrats on the buck! That’s a stud!
How crowded was that hunt? And how many deer were you seeing a day?

Thank you! Opening morning I went to where I had previously scouted out a 190+ buck that was running with a couple other 170+ bucks. I got to where I wanted to be about 30 minutes before sunrise to find that 3 different vehicles for one guiding company parked along that hillside. They obviously knew about that buck as well. I had other areas and other bucks scouted so I decided to hunt in those areas and never saw another person. As far as deer numbers, I was more than pleased. The morning I shot my buck I saw 50+ does in about an hour and 6-8 bucks before locating mine. Pre season I was seeing 80+ deer a day and 15+ of those being bucks. If you'd like to chat a little more 1 on 1 I would love to help you out and give you some more information on how you could be successful on that early hunt.

 

[Jim813]

I think you'd have to ask what type of experience do you want? The early hunt will give you opportunity at a lot of smaller bucks, and you'll see a ton of deer. There are some really good bucks walking around in the early season, but they are much tougher to find and it's unlikely to scout for just a few days and stumble across one. Likely you'll be around other hunters in a lot of the areas.

The late hunt is a significantly better chance at being able to hunt and harvest a trophy caliber buck. But, you may wait decades to draw. Tough call, but other states offer hunts with similar caliber mule deer with significantly less points to draw. If you're coming from Ohio, you might consider saving those points for a late season tag and look at other states. Or, move to AZ for a year and cash in as a resident?

 

[Oilcan]

Draw odds keep getting worse this year the 12AW late hunt Bonus tags went to max point holders. Just not enough tags to make any head way on point creep.