Are we headed for another 2008?

[roosiebull]

Pulled 60% of retirement accounts out of stocks and in to cash last week....

my wife and i started IRA this year, and i'm going to be patient to put it anywhere... i think now is the wrong time.... kinda want to shut down toy buying for a bit (to some extent ) and put that money aside to invest when this mess bottoms out..... try to make the economy bottoming out a net positive for the future.

i'm not looking forward to what things look like when the dust settles, but we are all going to be going through it together..... doesn't do much good feeling sorry for ourselves, because it sucks for everyone.... for some reason, there is some comfort in that concept.

 

[amassi]

The real way you destabilize an economy is by creating four trillion dollars out of thin air and passing it out to your core peeps

Works better when we spend that money in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan I suppose.

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[amassi]

my wife and i started IRA this year, and i'm going to be patient to put it anywhere... i think now is the wrong time.... kinda want to shut down toy buying for a bit (to some extent ) and put that money aside to invest when this mess bottoms out..... try to make the economy bottoming out a net positive for the future.

i'm not looking forward to what things look like when the dust settles, but we are all going to be going through it together..... doesn't do much good feeling sorry for ourselves, because it sucks for everyone.... for some reason, there is some comfort in that concept.

The only equality is misery

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[roosiebull]

The only equality is misery

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hate to say it, but some difficult times may do this country good

i 100% agree with you

 

[Wvroach]

This isn't a sign of a down economy. In a down economy pricing goes down as well as purchasing power.

I guess you wouldn't consider the Weimar republic of Germany through the 1920s as a "down" economy then?

They also printed massive amounts of money out of thin air.

It is actually quite interesting if you want to take a little time to read up on it.

They were recieving pay hourly come the end of 1923, they would pay their spouses to go get groceries before the registers would increase prices automatically another 10% each hour.

A typical loaf of bread in January of 1923 was 250 marks, by November it has increased to over 2,000,000. It ended up costing more to print the notes then they were worth. All in the span of 11 months.

I don't think we are there yet, and I'm hopeful we can right the ship before it gets there.

May also want to look at Sudan, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc...

 

[amassi]

I guess you wouldn't consider the Weimar republic of Germany through the 1920s as a "down" economy then?

They also printed massive amounts of money out of thin air.

It is actually quite interesting if you want to take a little time to read up on it.

They were recieving pay hourly come the end of 1923, they would pay their spouses to go get groceries before the registers would increase prices automatically another 10% each hour.

A typical loaf of bread in January of 1923 was 250 marks, by November it has increased to over 2,000,000. It ended up costing more to print the notes then they were worth. All in the span of 11 months.

I don't think we are there yet, and I'm hopeful we can right the ship before it gets there.

May also want to look at Sudan, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc...

You mean when the whole world was on a standard backed by precious commodity? And after Germany had to pay war reparations thay depleted their stock of gold and silver- seems like a couple things may have changed since then


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[Wvroach]

You mean when the whole world was on a standard backed by precious commodity? And after Germany had to pay war reparations thay depleted their stock of gold and silver- seems like a couple things may have changed since then


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Actually, interestingly enough, Germany suspended the Gold standard during WW1. They were not backed by any precious commodity when printing the marks on masse through January of 23 and They did not resume the gold standard until November of 23 when it had reached over 29,000 percent inflation.

The hyperinflation didn't end until Germany went back to a precious commodity standard, i.e gold.

 

[amassi]

Actually, interestingly enough, Germany suspended the Gold standard during WW1. They were not backed by any precious commodity when printing the marks on masse through January of 23 and They did not resume the gold standard until November of 23 when it had reached over 29,000 percent inflation.

The hyperinflation didn't end until Germany went back to a precious commodity standard, i.e gold.

Exactly- Germanies currency had no backing compared to the rest od the world and was worthless, the allies took the remainder of German treasure to pay the German War debt. Germany also lost their foreign holdings and their home economy couldn't cope. Coupled with millions of war pensions being paid, unemployment and wounded veterans unable to find work.

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[Wvroach]

Exactly- Germanies currency had no backing compared to the rest od the world and was worthless, the allies took the remainder of German treasure to pay the German War debt. Germany also lost their foreign holdings and their home economy couldn't cope. Coupled with millions of war pensions being paid, unemployment and wounded veterans unable to find work.

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Your last post had made it seem to me as though you were saying they were on the gold standard.

That is a interesting take, though I think most historians would differ with that opinion.

The spiral really started in 1923 and WW1 was over in 1918 and the notes were being called and paid since then. The common consensus on the leading cause of hyperinflation was the printing of money to cover wages at the start, the politicians then thought they would be able to endlessly do that with no repercussions.

They actually had wrote into their contracts that their wages would rise in tandem with the hyperinflation caused by the mass printing.

Quite a sickening ordeal.

 

[S.Clancy]

This is not 2008. Sure, I believe there is a housing bubble, as there was in 2008. The key to 2008 is when the housing bubble popped, people could not refinance out of the ARMs because they were underwater due to decreased home value. This then caused the cascade of foreclosures as highly leveraged people couldn't afford the new, higher, payments.

The bubble in 2008 was caused by increased demand for housing due to very low lending standards. This bubble can be argued as larger, due to increased demand from extremely low rates, free money, and fear during COVID. FOMO is in full effect. I believe that housing prices are unlikely to crater, tho...

The scariest thing about our current instance is massive artificial demand has caused bubbles in a number of other industries. This level of demand is conpletely unsustainable. IMO, downside risk is a 1929 US or 1990 Japan level event. That is not good.

 

[kayvon]

Home prices will crater once the cheap money decimates the zombie companies. Once the chickens come home to roost in cooperate America, there will be massive layoffs. We'll see how much home demand there will be then. It'll avalanche from there into crashing home values and inability to refinance (again).

 

[*zap*]

Printing trillions of $ with no backing.....other than the stature of the US government which is headed by an illegitimate potus that is senile. What could go wrong? Gotta give the uke's 35 billion soon thou..say anything negative about that and the truth ministry will getcha...

 

[cacklercrazy]

Well we all know what they say about opinions, so here goes mine.

We are due to take our lumps, we should have in 08 and straightened this mess out, instead we kicked the proverbial can down the road. We have now added another 14 years of debt and record irresponsibility with spending on both sides of the aisle, including all the folks in between.

Nearly everyone I know has massive amounts of debt, if they were to lose a check for 3 months that foreclosure notice would certainly hit them.

My best advice while the dollar retains what value it has is to stock up on the essentials and prepare anyway you can to provide for your family/friends. Get to know your community, find a group of folks you can rely on and network with. Get out of debt, get out of the cities and get out of those houses/cars you can't afford.

Learn a skill that makes you valuable if the worst case scenario does happen. Whatever it may be, recession, depression, war, food shortages etc...
Their is absolutely no harm in taking your families wellbeing into your own hands.

Not trying to sound all doom and gloom, I think their is still a certain resilience and a chance that we can get out of this, no matter how it plays out it's going to hurt though. Do what you can now to make it hurt less.

The government will most certainly not be there to provide for you. Doubt it? Well look to any natural disasters since 05, see who really did the clean up and work and provided food for the folks around. It was the community, mission teams, private citizens etc... FEMA is virtually useless.

The thing that will make this one worse is the food shortage and food price. I'm in farming and we see things that are getting worse on our end. Cost of producing is through the roof. This has to be passed on at some point. Usually after farms go under. I hate to say this but some people might starve this time.

 

[cod007]

Printing trillions of $ with no backing.....other than the stature of the US government which is headed by an illegitimate potus that is senile. What could go wrong? Gotta give the uke's 35 billion soon thou..say anything negative about that and the truth ministry will getcha...

Yep. Don’t spend any on your own country’s citizens. But spend billions upon billions of yet to be printed US dollars on a country in which Biden, pelosi, Kerry, and Romney relatives, all have interests in.
Oh, and there’s NO biolabs there either (at least not too many, at this point of the war).
No, there’s nothing unusual about going from 9 trillion in debt just a handful of years ago, to 30 plus trillion in debt and still climbing.
Stoopid people. Go back to sleep.
God wins!

 

[ozyclint]

I feel for my farming buddies. Fertilizer, seed and roundup costs have doubled and tripled. Diesel prices higher now than any time in history. Hard to get tractor repair parts and on and on. They are going to need $10 corn and $20 soybeans to make any money. It sucks all the way around for farmers as they are being hit from every direction at once.

Imagine not being subsidized on top of all that.

Welcome to Australian agriculture.

 

[ozyclint]

Printing trillions of $ with no backing.....other than the stature of the US government.........................

The US$ is backed by your military. Any time anyone threatens to trade without it you swoop in and 'democracy the shit out of them'.
Gaddafi and his proposed oil trading for gold comes to mind.

"We came, we saw, he died"- Hillary Clinton.

 

[peterk123]

This is not 2008. Sure, I believe there is a housing bubble, as there was in 2008. The key to 2008 is when the housing bubble popped, people could not refinance out of the ARMs because they were underwater due to decreased home value. This then caused the cascade of foreclosures as highly leveraged people couldn't afford the new, higher, payments.

The bubble in 2008 was caused by increased demand for housing due to very low lending standards. This bubble can be argued as larger, due to increased demand from extremely low rates, free money, and fear during COVID. FOMO is in full effect. I believe that housing prices are unlikely to crater, tho...

The scariest thing about our current instance is massive artificial demand has caused bubbles in a number of other industries. This level of demand is conpletely unsustainable. IMO, downside risk is a 1929 US or 1990 Japan level event. That is not good.

I think the demand is partially artificial. Nobody, and I mean nobody is talking about the publicly traded companies that are solely focused on purchasing single family residences all around the country for investment purposes. Ya, people who should not have bought homes were doing it in 2008. But it was allowed because of the demand in the derivitive markets. 9 times out of 10, it is corporate and investor greed in cahoots with the fed that pulls it all down. They have taken this to a whole new level this time and with multiple agendas. Just think what covid 20.0 that is coming your way in about six months will do to this economy. Then there is the green new deal. Then there is funding of Ukraine. I can't even keep up with all the insanity that just whacks away at the dollar and our economy.

I love it when people keep saying values won't crash. They always crash. Think about it for a second. Where did all these buyers come from all of a sudden. Did all the basement dwellers save their allowance money? Are all those illegals coming in independently wealthy? Are cities literally devoid of residents? Or is it there just a lot of panic buying going on? Gotta have it now because, you know..... it's different this time.

 

[go_deep]

"It's different this time" I have heard that one at least four times in my thirty years in commercial banking and commercial real estate. Yup, it's different. But the end result will be the same.

Go time to have no debt and access to cash. I know I know, you are better off being locked into nice big mortgage with low rates during a rising rate environment. Until you are unemployed.

All the guys I know that made boat loads of money in these times did it when the crap hit the fan and they had cash to spend. 2008 was rough but some great deals could be had from the fallout.

What's your thoughts on a time line? I'm thinking spring 2024 there should be some deals to be had.

 

[darcytribe]

With the government ballooning of money supply theses past few years and certain international powers edging away from the USD in trade agreements, I believe we are getting closer to the USD‘s privileged status being finished. The fed has little else left to try and keep this fiat system farce going much longer. I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet, Tough days ahead I’m afraid.

 

[kfili]

I love it when people keep saying values won't crash. They always crash. Think about it for a second. Where did all these buyers come from all of a sudden. Did all the basement dwellers save their allowance money? Are all those illegals coming in independently wealthy? Are cities literally devoid of residents? Or is it there just a lot of panic buying going on? Gotta have it now because, you know..... it's different this time.

Maybe im missing what you are saying- where do you think/suggest all the buyers came from? and how does that lead to a crash?