Analyze My Groups

[huntnful]

Also, remember that we’re discussing hunting rifles here, not comp rifles. A 1.5” 10 shot group at 100 is larger than I’d like, but if I can squeeze that down to 1” for a 10 shot group, gives me the warm and fuzzy

10 shots into 1” is exceptional for a moderate weight hunting rifle rifle for sure.

 

[Schmo]

10 shots into 1” is exceptional for a moderate weight hunting rifle rifle for sure.

My 18” Tikka 223 has shown me what a really good barrel is. When testing the 77TMK and the 75 ELD, multiple powder ladders for finding pressure were sub-MOA for 5 shots with a 2.5 grain powder charge spread.

Every 5 shot group in this pic has a powder charge spread of 2.5 grains. One “bad” group on top left (obviously it hates that powder), but everything else is awesome for a ladder. Kinda spoils one for lesser of a barrel.

 

[huntnful]

My 18” Tikka 223 has shown me what a really good barrel is. When testing the 77TMK and the 75 ELD, multiple powder ladders for finding pressure were sub-MOA for 5 shots with a 2.5 grain powder charge spread.

Every 5 shot group in this pic has a powder charge spread of 2.5 grains. One “bad” group on top left (obviously it hates that powder), but everything else is awesome for a ladder. Kinda spoils one for lesser of a barrel.

View attachment 954855

Definitely! And I was actually referring to a REAL hunting rifle as well. Not just a squirrel gun….. kiddddiiiingggggg

 

[Schmo]

Definitely! And I was actually referring to a REAL hunting rifle as well. Not just a squirrel gun….. kiddddiiiingggggg

It’s okay, my squirrel gun worked really well on deer last year. This year I break out the magnum boomer (the 6 PRC ), for deer and maybe a cow elk.

 

[huntnful]

It’s okay, my squirrel gun worked really well on deer last year. This year I break out the magnum boomer (the 6 PRC ), for deer and maybe a cow elk.

Don’t think I forgot about the crippled white tail doe that was actually a fairly decent shot. I remember everything lol.

The 6 PRC is pretty sweet though. I planned to have my wife use it on her cow elk, but I just couldn’t do it . I don’t know why. Like I KNOW it works, but just something won’t let me commit. I firmly stand by that if you aren’t at the recoil threshold where you’re genuinely shooting worse, then bigger/faster=gooder lol.

 

[Flyjunky]

Don't forget lunar calendar or astrological symbol either.

If your gun is not grouping to your expectations then change powder or bullet and if that doesnt work get a new gun. 99% of the lift is the gun. Or you might need practice...

Or be like the guys who use ocw and believe that every flier is your fault and not the gun.

??

 

[solarshooter]

Seriously? You haven't seen tests that conclude that tweaking loads matters? You haven't seen tests that conclude that load tweaks make no statistically relevant difference? These tests are abundant and available everywhere with a simple Google search.

I am telling you that no, I have never seen a test with 10+rd groups show any evidence of nodes or tuning being effective. I've seen about 10 million with 3-5rd groups claim to find nodes, and I've seen 0 of those tests repeated and discovered the same nodes. Please link just one!

And the winners, the best of the best, also chase the powder charge node throughout the day as the temp goes up.

Don’t forget tweaking for humidity, but what do these guys know.

The winners AND the losers tweak their load throughout the day. And sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. But what IS happening is they are shooting many 5rd groups. And some of those groups are good and some are bad.

 

[solarshooter]

But to think they ALL do small sample testing, and they ALL don’t understand their craft (which you’ve never participated in, or shot something even remotely precise before) I just think is pretty bold.

I know a decent number of BR shooters and smiths, have shot a 600yd BR comp, helped build a BR gun, shot lots of ammo through that gun. I've also read A LOT of forums and books focused on BR and ultimate rifle precision. So I know more than zero, but by no means am I an expert in the field.

I know of only a handful of BR and F class shooters who have started doing more rigorous testing and analysis, most of them SINCE the release of Modern Advancements in Long Range Shooting Vol. 3 by Bryan Litz in 2022, which is what really sparked this industry wide refocusing on the nature of precision testing. Other than that, my impression of BR "craft" is that no they are not doing a lot of science.

Exactly my thoughts. People on here arguing against shooters who shoot tiny, tiny aggregates over the course of a weekend.

You missed where I linked the exact rebuttal, so I'll link it again:

Post in thread 'Your Groups Are Too Small'

Jan 21, 2024

Bet you $100 that if you shot a 30 round group of at 54.5, 55.0, 55.5gr- there is functional difference, and almost certainly they will be within statistical variability- you have “engineered” yourself into believing that you can control small variables to effect a real outcome.

I'm assuming you meant NO functional difference. True. I guess I would need to do that to prove that the selection method is valid or not. Like I said earlier, I have already proven this for a different powder combo, but it's not certain for this powder. I could pick the worst charge from the initial...

• solarshooter

• 
• 

Don’t even get me started on the Hornady podcast. Those numbers were covered on this site many times.

What do you mean by this? That this site has somehow determined the numbers in the podcast were wrong?

 

[Packmansion]

??

You read that right.

 

[solarshooter]

I've read Litz' books and don't recall him coming to that conclusion.

Modern Advancements Vol 3, Part 1. The tests he ran were on barrel tuners, but the outcomes were the same. And yes, if you believe small changes in powder or seating depth make a difference, than you ought to believe barrel tuners work too. And yes many HOF BR shooters swear by barrel tuners. And NO they aren't shown to do anything!

 

[nm.otter]

Every 5 shot group in this pic has a powder charge spread of 2.5 grains. One “bad” group on top left (obviously it hates that powder), but everything else is awesome for a ladder. Kinda spoils one for lesser of a barrel.

View attachment 954855

It'd be interesting to see those aggregated for analysis...

 

[BBob]

And NO they aren't shown to do anything!

According soley to Litz and his one flawed experiment? And so he says it then those HOF'rs know jack then? If it's so easy and no tuning or tuners are required some of you guys would be a shoe in to go win it all at will. Easy pickins!!!! Lets go

 

[Packmansion]

According soley to Litz and his one flawed experiment? And so he says it then those HOF'rs know jack then? If it's so easy and no tuning or tuners are required some of you guys would be a shoe in to go win it all at will. Easy pickins!!!! Lets go

Hornady has also done extensive testing that indicates tuning loads is effectively a waste of time. They concluded it comes down to very significant changes. If you have not seen the podcast its a good watch.

 

[Castle Rock]

Hornady has also done extensive testing that indicates tuning loads is effectively a waste of time. They concluded it comes down to very significant changes. If you have not seen the podcast its a good watch.

The goal posts seem to be moving here, first it was asserted that seating depth didn’t matter, but now it seems that the conversation has swung to significant changes.

Hornady ELDMs, particularly in .22 are very picky about seating depth.

 

[Packmansion]

The goal posts seem to be moving here, first it was asserted that seating depth didn’t matter, but now it seems that the conversation has swung to significant changes.

Hornady ELDMs, particularly in .22 are very picky about seating depth.

Check out the Hornady podcast. Goal posts have not moved. What they found is significant changes such as changing bullet or powder had the greatest measurable impacts on precision.

The main reason why I would assert testing seating depth and powder charge is not productive is more from the stand point of practical load development. To test coal and charge your load development would exceed 200 rounds if you are doing group sizes large enough to determine a legitimate improvement in precision. 10 shot groups at bare minimum but 30 is more appropriate for validation. The above is based on Hornadys testing. Ive also experimented with this first hand by shooting large groups over 30 rounds and seeing sds start to flatten out. I have a custom 223 gun that I do a lot of testing with. It allows me to shoot 100s of rounds on range trips for a pretty low cost. Based on my experience with that gun it seems like no matter what I do it has very minimal impact on group size. Ive shot 3 different powders and 5 different bullets out of it. The only thing it really does not like is factory green tip.

 

[Castle Rock]

That’s interesting, what sort of accuracy are you seeing with 10 and 30 round groups, and with what components?

 

[Packmansion]

That’s interesting, what sort of accuracy are you seeing with 10 and 30 round groups, and with what components?

Pretty reliably around 1" I dont have logs but I do plan on doing a formal post regarding the topic generally and ill be using that rifle. Waiting on a chassis. The gun is very well seasoned at this point. I have used varget, cfe 223 and staball match. Surprisingly the staball match did the best for both velocity and sd's with the 88s. Book max pierced primers with sysball match and got some jaw droping speeds. Ive shot 73s, 75s, 80s, 88s for reloads. Ive also shot bulk pmc 55 fmj and pmc green tip. The green tips were 2 moa+. Lc brass with cci small rifle primers. I have not had time but plan to load up some 55grain soft point with cfe 223 and staball match soon. In all my ars I've run 55 sps with cfe 223 with great results across multiple guns. I will be setting up a Lee thrower for bulk loading, really need to just get a progressive at some point. Attached 10 shot group with 88s and cfe 223 when barrel was new. Biggest challenge has been getting SD down which i solved that with the staball match. If i recall i was below 10 sd for 10 shots on the staball match but more testing to come to validate the staball match. The pierced primers resulted in more testing because i had to pull the hot loads and work up.

 

[Packmansion]

A great simple article by litz:

What MOA is my Rifle? Bryan Litz on Expectations of Precision – Ultimate Reloader

ultimatereloader.com

 

[stan_wa]

Hornady ELDMs, particularly in .22 are very picky about seating depth.

How did you determine this? I am truly interested in seeing if seating depth makes a difference. I have seen small groups change n size with changes. But I have yet to see anything that shows a real difference. Please keep in mInd that even a 20 shot group size of .75” vs 1” or 1.5” vs 2.0” is not a real difference. What I do mean by real difference? I mean using a t test on individual radii. I know it’s a pain to do.

If large changes in seating depth
.05” or powder 2 grain don’t make a change, seems easy to say a small change won’t matter.

 

[Schmo]

Hornady ELDMs, particularly in .22 are very picky about seating depth.

Not according to the Hornady guys. They pick a seating depth and roll with it. If it doesn’t shoot, they move on. This is in their personal comp rifles, not just what they tell people