37% optimal stopping rule (how to maximize your buck’s size and the optimal amount of scouting)

[TaperPin]

If someone wants to get the biggest buck possible during the season, we all know you don’t usually shoot the first deer you see, and you don’t wait until the last day or you may go home empty handed. I was surprised to see the odds for situations like this are well known and the ideal solution is turn down all deer the first 37% of the trip, and shoot the next deer that’s larger than the biggest one you passed up. Turns out optimal stopping theory is useful for a number of situations.

Of course there’s more that goes into selecting a deer, but the next time a young fella asks how do you know if a deer is big enough I’ll say, “Spend the first 1/3 of season calibrating your picker, and the next 2/3rds looking for the deer that’s bigger.” If that first 1/3 is spent scouting, during the season you know what deer to aim for. So for whatever amount of hunting time, 37% of that is the ideal amount to scout. Honestly that sounds about right. *chuckle*

Mathematicians suggest the "37% rule" for your life's biggest decisions

The 37% rule states that when making any major decision in life, reject the first 37% in a list and choose the next best that comes along.

bigthink.com

 

[Davyalabama]

I've killed many good deer the first week of the season, and many old turkeys.

I agree on the scouting, and the 1/3, I guess because I spend a lot of time scouting before the season, so the 37% rule may apply. I'll have a really good buck picked out before the season every comes near enough for others to worry about. Turkey season isn't for almost a month and a half, I've got three I'm already locked in on, now it's figuring out in the next month where they want to be during the middle of the morning and up in the day. It will change between now and turkey season.

I love scouting and doing stuff before the season almost as much as the season itself, time in nature by myself and God is just good for the soul.

 

[dwhite0622]

Interesting theory. I suppose when I look back at what I’ve taken vs what I’ve passed, it does check out. I’m sure that shooting a true giant takes more combing, but for most hunters taking the next bigger deer from the one you passed is probably sound advice.

 

[5MilesBack]

If someone wants to get the biggest buck possible during the season, we all know you don’t usually shoot the first deer you see, and you don’t wait until the last day or you may go home empty handed.

If you're ONLY looking for big deer, there's nothing wrong with going home empty-handed. I do that with elk, and have eaten my tag a few times yet had great seasons.

 

[Trial153]

BowHunting several states and countries, and multiple tags ..I am glad i get to switch up goals based on different metrics. Some times bowhunting doesn’t present the amount of shot opportunities that other weapons do. I would think long and hard about this rule and what your goals are.

 

[NWBLKTAIL]

yeah I think the scouting goes a long ways. if you don’t know what big or good is for an area, it can be difficult to know what you’re looking for (or should be). Seems like time is always your friend when looking for something specific.