37% optimal stopping rule (how to maximize your buck’s size and the optimal amount of scouting)

TaperPin

WKR
Joined
Jul 12, 2023
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If someone wants to get the biggest buck possible during the season, we all know you don’t usually shoot the first deer you see, and you don’t wait until the last day or you may go home empty handed. I was surprised to see the odds for situations like this are well known and the ideal solution is turn down all deer the first 37% of the trip, and shoot the next deer that’s larger than the biggest one you passed up. Turns out optimal stopping theory is useful for a number of situations.

Of course there’s more that goes into selecting a deer, but the next time a young fella asks how do you know if a deer is big enough I’ll say, “Spend the first 1/3 of season calibrating your picker, and the next 2/3rds looking for the deer that’s bigger.” If that first 1/3 is spent scouting, during the season you know what deer to aim for. So for whatever amount of hunting time, 37% of that is the ideal amount to scout. Honestly that sounds about right. *chuckle*


 
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