1000+ Yard, Cross Canyon, hunting hit %

[wind gypsy]

I opened my yapper on a different thread related to this topic and want to avoid further hijacking it but still was thinking about this.

Scenario:

• You're shooting at 2 MOA target at least 1000 yards across a canyon - range is measured by your hunting range finder, not a known range (i.e. taking into account how good you are at knowing where your rf beam is going to hit vs known distance)
• 15 MPH winds at most, to the best of your ability to read, could be very light
• At least a little time stress, animal is on it's feet, may not be in a rush to get anywhere
• You've never shot across this canyon before

What do you think your average hit percentage would be with that first shot?

I haven't lived out west for a while and when I did I spent a lot of time shooting in the same locations and then got humbled most times i tried a new spot with a scenario like this until i spotted a shot and corrected. I'd not consider myself good at this but I'd guess I'd be maybe 50% [edit: Optimism strikes again haha] with pretty good odds on follow up shots if I got a good read on where the 1st one impacted?

I realize this is the LR forum where we dont talk ethics of LR hunting, i'm curious about folks' thoughts on hit %.

 

[mtnwrunner]

What equipment?
As in rest, caliber, bullet, etc......

Randy

 

[Wrench]

85% after the thermal shift occurs.

60% during.

The cross canyon shot at 15mph is not so bad *if* it's one we can read the wind. The killer at the times we typically see critters is there's a strong up or down current that plays a part in the trip.

 

[wind gypsy]

What equipment?
As in rest, caliber, bullet, etc......

Randy

Whatever the most dialed in setup you own is that you'd actually take into the mountains hunting

 

[Stephmae]

Not very good! How many people would be comfortable with that shot (nothing wrong with it if you’re confident)? I remember when 300 seemed like a long way!

 

[KineKilla]

If the equipment is capable, I give it a 50/50 that you don't gut shoot it.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[Geewhiz]

I’m going to say somewhere around 25% on a first shot hit in that scenario for me if I were to be there right now. I’m fairly confident I could make a follow up shot that’s darn close but for a 2 Moa cold bore shot on a target at a grand if I’m being honest I would venture to say 25%.

 

[Brandon.miller.4]

I'm thinking 10 percent chance for the general "long range hunter" population. Dedicated long range shooters, that log rounds in the 1,000s every year if not every month I'm gonna guess the odds would go up substantially to the 50-60 percent mark. I ran numbers on a 7mph gun (very high bc and mv). With a misread wind of only 5 mph, 10 vs 15, shooter would be off target by 25 inches. That is not including any possible ranging errors, animal taking a step during shot execution, up or down thermals, improper recoil control due to firing position, or the myriad of other factors that could come into play.

Side note, if we take that range down to 600 yards (a much more realistic maximum for MOST) the margin for error becomes much more forgiving. Same wind miscalculation of 5 mph and bullet path is throw off by only 8.5 inches, which could still mean vitals depending on target species. Not only that but an accurate range is easy to obtain at 600 with rangefinding binoculars.

Just some data on the proposed scenario with one of my long range capable rifles. To each their own. I for one, will not be lobbing shots at 1000 yards considering I don't shoot enough to be an effective killer at that range, and I shoot much more than most.

 

[willfrye027]

1000+?? Maybe 25%

 

[shwacker]

My chances would be low, but I saw a guy I didn't know take an elk at about 1000 yards a couple years ago. It was impressive, and I would give him good odds based on what I saw. It was a very steep downhill shot at first shooting time.

 

[Ucsdryder]

20” target? I like my odds. The wind will be the key. Assuming it’s as simple as a 90 degree wind blowing up or down the canyon, that’s a 4.5 moa hold. I got this!

 

[Formidilosus]

I opened my yapper on a different thread related to this topic and want to avoid further hijacking it but still was thinking about this.

Scenario:

• You're shooting at 2 MOA target at least 1000 yards across a canyon - range is measured by your hunting range finder, not a known range (i.e. taking into account how good you are at knowing where your rf beam is going to hit vs known distance)
• 15 MPH winds at most, to the best of your ability to read, could be very light
• At least a little time stress, animal is on it's feet, may not be in a rush to get anywhere
• You've never shot across this canyon before

What do you think your average hit percentage would be with that first shot?

In “easy” or good conditions I can consistently call wind out at 1,000-1,100 yards to within 2mph the vast majority of time. For the current gun I hunt with the most, that’s going to be around a 50% to 55% first round hit rate, with near 100% second round hit rate. In “hard” or bad conditions- switchy wind, lots of broken terrain in between me and the target, etc- I will be +/- 4 mph, which will put me at around 30% first round hit rate, with second round hit rate again being very high- above 90%.

That’s not theoretical, that’s measured over the last 7-8 years and about 40,000 rounds doing exactly that.

 

[Brandon.miller.4]

In east or good conditions I can consistently call wind out at 1,000-1,100 yards to within 2mph the vast majority of time. For the current gun I hunt with the most, that’s going to be around a 50% to 55% first round hit rate, with near 100% second round hit rate. In “hard” or bad conditions- switchy wind, lots of broken terrain in between me and the target, etc- I will be +/- 4 mph, which will put me at around 30% first round hit rate, with second round hit rate again being very high- above 90%.

That’s not theoretical, that’s measured over the last 7-8 years and about 40,000 rounds doing exactly that.

Key words there being measured and 40k rounds. Most folks don't see that many rounds in a lifetime. Out of curiosity, are you accepting a 50 percent probability at 1000 yards and taking that shot knowing you have a near 100 percent hit probability on 2nd round? If so and mark is missed by a bit how do you deal with a wounded animal?

 

[Formidilosus]

Using the WEZ now: same rifle- 6mm 115gr DTAC at 2,820fps MV, 5K DA-

Easy conditions, +/- 2 MPH, 53% first round hit rate-




Hard conditions, +/- 4 MPH, 29% first round hit rate-



So spot on.

I don’t have anything from the last couple of seasons hunting past 1,000 yards, but do have a couple past 900y, and the cold bore shoot here, and shooting with a few RS’ers.

Elk at 912 yards, two lung/heart shots 7-8” apart- I was the spotter calling wind.

Elk at 970 yards, first round lung shot, I was spotter calling wind.

Cold bore Challange here, 960 yards- both hits on a 2 MOA target. I was the shooter.

1,208 yards on 8” target, first round hit- I was the spotter calling the wind.

1,162 yards, 20” target, first round hit, I was the spotter calling the wind.

In shooting with a lot of people that are supposed to be competent, first round hits in mountain terrain that they’ve never shot in before, with any wind at all is somewhere between 0% and the absolute best of about 50%.

 

[Formidilosus]

Key words there being measured and 40k rounds. Most folks don't see that many rounds in a lifetime. Out of curiosity, are you accepting a 50 percent probability at 1000 yards and taking that shot knowing you have a near 100 percent hit probability on 2nd round? If so and mark is missed by a bit how do you deal with a wounded animal?

That is a hard conversation to have online because there is no short way to answer that, and things get be taken out of context.

I shoot when I have an extremely high probability- that is 90% plus, that I will be “successful”. “Successful” in this context means that at the end of “this” event, I will be standing over that dead animal. It encompasses everything from first round hit probability, follow up shots hit probabilities, type of animal, the terrain, tracking conditions (snow or not), my physical ability to follow up as long as required, etc.

There is no 100% when killing animals. Everyone that has any experience at all has missed an animal at sub 50 yards. Everyone that has done much killing has wounded animals at sub 50 yards. That being the case, it is impossible to say “I don’t shoot unless I am 100% sure”- that’s just word salad.
In the last 200 game animals I have killed, I have missed 3 times, and wounded (grazed) 1 time. One miss and the graze was on the same animal at 576 yards, two days apart- a bear (well, like a bear only smaller). I finally killed it the third day.
I would have to look to be spot on, however in the last 300 or so animals I have missed 6 times, maybe 7. 374y, 597y, 860y, 576y, and 770’ish yards. Two of those was hedging my bets with an unknown wind so that if I missed it would be a clean miss (both clean missed); one was due to a bino being heated up by the truck and giving wildly incorrect Data (clean miss), two were due to incorrect wind (one miss, one graze), and two were due to a ranging error (clean miss, then corrected and killed).

I say the above only to give some context. So, would I shoot at an elk with a 50% first round hit probability? Yes, under certain conditions. There are also certain conditions where I would not shoot at an 85% probability because follow up shots are unlikely, or tracking would near impossible if the animal was wounded.

I am aware that will get taken out of context; so I say this with zero arrogance or ego- the amount of shooting I/we do in field conditions, the amount of animals I have killed and tracked personally and the amount of animals I have directly been apart of being killed, all result that when animals get touched by a bullet, they are recovered. I actually can not remember the last animal that we touched with a projectile that we lost- it would be 2008’ish, and a lot of animals ago.

 

[Wrench]

20” target? I like my odds. The wind will be the key. Assuming it’s as simple as a 90 degree wind blowing up or down the canyon, that’s a 4.5 moa hold. I got this!

I'm assuming you meant mils....or we gotta discuss this laser.

 

[S-3 ranch]

I’m going with -20% for average hunter and 30-40% with myself with my pet .300wm , Burris 3-14 scope
I have been in the outfitter business since 1991 on western game like pronghorn, nilgai, aoudad , white tail, mulie
and have seen lots of great bench shooters with top of the line equipment
fail in field conditions, bad rest , uneven wind conditions, adrenaline rush, ect
every 100 yards = +10% greater odds imo .
we test our players & their guns skills @ 200, 400, 600 before a hunt
and I practise regularly with field shots of 100-400 + yards on water jugs so brain to muscle memory is keen ,
I would recommend a LDH shooting course before you spend any money on a hunt with a chance of having a 400+ meter shot and having good equipment and high BC caliber that you can handle very well .
example I would not recommend a mid Asian ibex hunt or aoudad without a very capable rifle with 200 rounds shot in field conditions

 

[Ucsdryder]

I'm assuming you meant mils....or we gotta discuss this laser.

180 eldm is a laser! At 10,000 feet it’s even a better laser!

 

[Brandon.miller.4]

That is a hard conversation to have online because there is no short way to answer that, and things get be taken out of context.

I shoot when I have an extremely high probability- that is 90% plus, that I will be “successful”. “Successful” in this context means that at the end of “this” event, I will be standing over that dead animal. It encompasses everything from first round hit probability, follow up shots hit probabilities, type of animal, the terrain, tracking conditions (snow or not), my physical ability to follow up as long as required, etc.

There is no 100% when killing animals. Everyone that has any experience at all has missed an animal at sub 50 yards. Everyone that has done much killing has wounded animals at sub 50 yards. That being the case, it is impossible to say “I don’t shoot unless I am 100% sure”- that’s just word salad.
In the last 200 game animals I have killed, I have missed 3 times, and wounded (grazed) 1 time. One miss and the graze was on the same animal at 576 yards, two days apart- a bear (well, like a bear only smaller). I finally killed it the third day.
I would have to look to be spot on, however in the last 300 or so animals I have missed 6 times, maybe 7. 374y, 597y, 860y, 576y, and 770’ish yards. Two of those was hedging my bets with an unknown wind so that if I missed it would be a clean miss (both clean missed); one was due to a bino being heated up by the truck and giving wildly incorrect Data (clean miss), two were due to incorrect wind (one miss, one graze), and two were due to a ranging error (clean miss, then corrected and killed).

I say the above only to give some context. So, would I shoot at an elk with a 50% first round hit probability? Yes, under certain conditions. There are also certain conditions where I would not shoot at an 85% probability because follow up shots are unlikely, or tracking would near impossible if the animal was wounded.

I am aware that will get taken out of context; so I say this with zero arrogance or ego- the amount of shooting I/we do in field conditions, the amount of animals I have killed and tracked personally and the amount of animals I have directly been apart of being killed, all result that when animals get touched by a bullet, they are recovered. I actually can not remember the last animal that we touched with a projectile that we lost- it would be 2008’ish, and a lot of animals ago.

That all makes perfect sense to me. And yes I'm sure you're going to be ridiculed for that response but that's just how people are at times. I like the no BS approach.

 

[TaperPin]

Average hunter has zero percent odds. At 600 yards the average guy can’t hit 2 MoA with zero wind. I’ll go as far as saying the average guy with a field rest is lucky to hit 2 MOA at any distance. At the 300 yard range there was a 10” steel square guys love to shoot after sighting their rifles at the 100 yard bench. I‘d bet lunch the average guy on a typical day only hits that 3.3 MOA target 3 out of 5 times.

With 15 mph canyon winds? That’s a lot - I’d have zero percent chance at 1000. 15 mph makes 600 yards a significant challenge.

I really like the Texas Plinking YouTuber - it’s a smaller target, but it’s fun watching the struggle most of them have hitting 1 MOA at 1000 with 10 shots - 2 MOA target would be safe from a lot of the guys. Lol