Your Groups Are Too Small

[Rifles And More]

I’ve watched multiple champion F class and BR shooters go through their whole load work up and explain why it worked (they were all different) then watched them shoot 50 shot groups with their load, and two other loads which were random so they didn’t know which load they were shooting, that varied from what their method said was the best. In all cases using the same components- that is bullet, case, primer, and powder- none resulted in a statistical difference in those 50 shot groups between their load and the random loads. Some of the 50 shot groups was smaller with the random load than theirs, some their chosen load was smaller- in no case were the differences large enough to say which was which.

I find this interesting and would like more info if it is available.

I can see what you are saying - the two different methods did not move the bell enough left or right to differentiate between the two. Is that correct?

Does it take one SD shift to be significant?

When you say 'same components' does that include all the brass prep that was probably done - Neck turning, etc. - not to mention sorting projectiles, etc.
...or was it just the same as far as brand of products, but one set raw and one set processed.

What was the average group size for their 50?
I'll assume better than the "average joe with an average rifle".

Did the results of this make these champions change what they did for load development going forward?

 

[dirtytough]

Ok I’m curious. @Formidilosus experience seems to align with Hornady’s data in the podcast.

Then Rokslide has at least one sponsor that does load development. @Unknown Munitions . Reading the load thread they “tune” and look for “nodes”.

I believe @Ryan Avery actually shoots some of the rifles during load development for Unknown.

So is that a waste of money? Is Form/Hornady wrong?

 

[Choupique]

I really like this thread.

 

[Rob5589]

Neither Form or Hornady is saying all the various methods of "load development" are wrong. They are saying that they aren't statistically sound methods.

 

[ResearchinStuff]

I am curious to see if ammo quality (runout, powder charge consistency, neck tension, flashholes, etc) makes a real difference in group size as more rounds are fired for each group. I plan to do some testing in the coming weeks.

 

[Lawnboi]

I am curious to see if ammo quality (runout, powder charge consistency, neck tension, flashholes, etc) makes a real difference in group size as more rounds are fired for each group. I plan to do some testing in the coming weeks.

IME it does. I stopped trying to find nodes a while ago because I could never reproduce the results, it just seemed like a waste of components.

Now I pick a speed I want at a near case fill that’s near 100%. Run a pressure ladder to confirm I’m far enough off pressure for my ammo to be heat/moisture safe and that’s it. After that I load as consistently as I can.

I don’t touch primer pockets though.

If that given load dosnt shoot I’m changing bullets or powder.


Next go round I’m actually going to zero and confirm group size on a semi clean barrel off a 20-30 round group as Hornady alluded to.

 

[ResearchinStuff]

IME it does.

mine too - but i've never shot more than a 5 shot group at a single point of aim with the stuff that I've really prepped well.

 

[Lawnboi]

mine too - but i've never shot more than a 5 shot group at a single point of aim with the stuff that I've really prepped well.

I mainly shoot 10 and 12 if I’m shooting a group at a hundred. Iv noticed a difference using better brass, better dies, annealing, and going to a more accurate powder scale.

Iv also become a much better shooter in that time, so maybe none of it matters.

The good thing is that a lot of the high end reloading equipment is also meant to cut down on steps and make the process faster.

 

[wtx]

Neither Form or Hornady is saying all the various methods of "load development" are wrong. They are saying that they aren't statistically sound methods.

This ^^


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[Rifles And More]

I simply said that you shooting ladders isn’t doing what you believe it is- that is a fact and it’s easily proven. Contact Ryan Avery, I’ll pay for your components and you can load everything on the range and prove that ladders are consistent with us standing there. That’s not me being a jerk or calling you out or anything other than- it is either provable and repeatable, or it’s not real. I would genuinely like to see a ladder test repeat itself over and over.

@Ryan Avery

I need 8# of Varget, 300 LR Match Primers, 200 pieces of Lapua brass, and 300 208gr LRHT Berger bullets for a 308 Winchester.

PM me for shipping address
PM @Formidilosus for payment.

 

[ResearchinStuff]

8# of varget for 300 rounds of 308? that's 186 gr of powder per shell.........

 

[Rifles And More]

8# of varget for 300 rounds of 308? that's 186 gr of powder per shell.........

Statistics. Repeatability. Better safe than sorry.

 

[ARK_Ginger]

@Ryan Avery

I need 8# of Varget, 300 LR Match Primers, 200 pieces of Lapua brass, and 300 208gr LRHT Berger bullets for a 308 Winchester.

PM me for shipping address
PM @Formidilosus for payment.

If it wasn't a 20+ hour drive for me I'd buy a ticket to see this.

 

[Flyjunky]

If it wasn't a 20+ hour drive for me I'd buy a ticket to see this.

You don’t need to drive anywhere. Go find the top shooters in the world of benchrest and see what they do for load development.

 

[HighUintas]

You don’t need to drive anywhere. Go find the top shooters in the world of benchrest and see what they do for load development.

A lot of them change parameters of their load on the fly while they're competing... So I don't think any of this would apply to them

 

[gbflyer]

I shot SR benchrest a little. Had a nice Panda. The old fella that built it for me does more building than shooting but has a few Hall of Fame points anyway. Load development was H322 or LT-32 about half way up the case neck, FB match bullet base touching the powder. Stuff a 71/2 REM primer in it. I was not a experienced BR shooter, but I got a few trophy stickers and I was around a few of the HOF shooters. Maybe he taught me that way so he could always beat me? Haha.

Everyone has their own loading voodoo in BR. I think mostly it’s about reading mirage and wind flags. Getting an occasional screamer of a barrel is a bonus too.

 

[Flyjunky]

A lot of them change parameters of their load on the fly while they're competing... So I don't think any of this would apply to them

True, guys do that all the time, but doesn’t that mean changes do make a difference?

In the podcast they said a grain of powder and seating depth don’t make a difference. If that’s true why are they changing loads on the fly?

 

[BBob]

A lot of them change parameters of their load on the fly while they're competing... So I don't think any of this would apply to them

Short range definitely, 1K pretty much all pre loaded.

 

[HighUintas]

True, guys do that all the time, but doesn’t that mean changes do make a difference?

In the podcast they said a grain of powder and seating depth don’t make a difference. If that’s true why are they changing loads on the fly?

Because it "works" for them. I'm not saying it doesn't but in seeing the comments on accurate shooter forum by BR guys, I don't think any of them have tested those changes with a larger sample size and they don't seem to be willing to.

The Hornady guys also said that in the tests THEY have done, it doesn't make a meaningful difference. The ballisitician proposed that seating depth could make a significant difference in certain chambers due to the design or cartridge size. Say the variance in chamber pressure is what causes most of the dispersion. If you change the seating depth in a 30-378wby by 0.050, you're not changing the volume of that case by much in comparison to changing the seating depth by 0.050 in something like a 30BR. The larger % change in case volume theoretically would have a greater impact on chamber pressure or the pressure curve.

Also mentioned was the idea that if you have a system where everything is finely tuned to a very high precision, like a F1 car or rocket engine, changing a variable just a little will have a relatively large impact on the performance. Of course, those are engines and these are rifles so it's not a 1:1 comparison. I would like to see this tested in a good BR rifle with no environmental influences like wind and mirage in a large sample size.

 

[BBob]

by BR guys, I don't think any of them have tested those changes with a larger sample size and they don't seem to be willing to.

The few guys over there that are almost always at the top of the leader board and winning often are also the guys that are shooting and testing constantly. That’s shooting and testing constantly not only load combinations but also equipment testing. This goes for short range,1K, F class, etc… I’d agree as in most forums most of the talk is just noise and you have to filter out who’s actually doing something real.