Wyoming south draw predictions

[mad_angler]

Looking at a Wyoming south general elk tag. My party will have 6 points... I was wondering about my odds and looked at the data

Wy elk draw odds

• 2023 ("general" general tag rather than just south)
  • 100% was 4+ points
• 2024 (South general)
  • 100% was about 5 points (93% accepted at 5 points)
• 2025 (South general)
  • 100% was 5+ points (30% for 5 points)

So... my prediction is;
50% for 5+ points
100% for 6 points


What are your predictions???

 

[Maverick1]

15+ points will guarantee you the tag.

 

[Skerhunter]

I bet it holds and more people apply in the special this year so they can actually hunt!

 

[Laramie]

Looking at a Wyoming south general elk tag. My party will have 6 points... I was wondering about my odds and looked at the data

Wy elk draw odds

• 2023 ("general" general tag rather than just south)
  • 100% was 4+ points
• 2024 (South general)
  • 100% was about 5 points (93% accepted at 5 points)
• 2025 (South general)
  • 100% was 5+ points (30% for 5 points)

So... my prediction is;
50% for 5+ points
100% for 6 points


What are your predictions???

I would predict the points required would plummet if people knew what they were getting into. The pressure has gotten off the charts bad. On top of the significantly higher pressure, the large number of hikers and guys in UTVs tearing all over the mountain make this a damn tough hunt for most. Many of those elk have learned to leave the mountain way before the snow falls so a significant portion of the elk are on private land before a rifle hunter gets a chance at them on forest.

Most on here will think I am just trying to steer hunters away from the region but I'm not- apply away just remember this message when you are pissed off packing out your tag soup that took 6 years to cook on the last day of your hunt. I have moved on...

 

[Laramie]

Some pics of elk way off the forest during the season so guys don't think I am just yanking their chain... Unless you have extensive area knowledge and time to scout OR good private land access, it's a damn tough hunt. Sure, the occasional guy get's lucky but is sure as hell isn't worth 6 years of preference points.

 

[go_deep]

I will just say this, I've lived here and hunted in what is the NR South hunt area for 14 years. This was the year that I was kind of like, this is getting old.
10th day of season was my first day and still people all over the dang place, use to be able to go up at the end of season and have it be pretty quite, but that too appears to have ended.

To the OP, I actually think 7 is what it'll take for a guaranteed draw in the regular.

 

[Laramie]

I will just say this, I've lived here and hunted in what is the NR South hunt area for 14 years. This was the year that I was kind of like, this is getting old.
10th day of season was my first day and still people all over the dang place, use to be able to go up at the end of season and have it be pretty quite, but that too appears to have ended.

To the OP, I actually think 7 is what it'll take for a guaranteed draw in the regular.

I have been at it in this region since 1989... the last several years have just gotten stupid. I think they need to break it up into multiple seasons and make people choose archery or firearm.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I'd guess special will jump more than regular as guys try harder to draw the tag. I'd still expect a point creep of at least .5 -1 this year.

 

[resident vs nonresident]

I have been at it in this region since 1989... the last several years have just gotten stupid. I think they need to break it up into multiple seasons and make people choose archery or firearm.

Just out of curiosity how’s it that last year all of a sudden it’s gone to shit? WY had same cap on number of NonRes gen tags for a very long time so that hasn’t changed.
Is it after they broke out W, S and E regions under gen tag split?
Seems like S and W would have gotten roughly same qty of hunters as they have in years past?

 

[Indian Summer]

Yes after the split. But I wouldn’t say it went to $h1t all of the sudden. It was already creeping in that direction.

 

[resident vs nonresident]

Yes after the split. But I wouldn’t say it went to $h1t all of the sudden. It was already creeping in that direction.

I can see that happening after the split. So in years prior did more people go to what are now W-gen units?
Not to drag this out but once again with a Fixed number of non-res tags being same all those years I’m still curious how did it get progressively worse?
must be WY res population growing and that’s where the increased pressure came from? Would that be fair to say?

And my guess compared to all the CO units along WY/CO border it’s still not nearly as pressured as CO?

 

[Zach75]

Could be more people are shifting to the southern region due to the growing grizzly population in the west region.

 

[resident vs nonresident]

Right nim just trying to understand from those that have hunted the area for many years and say it’s going downhill. Is that increase coming from RESidents only?
NonRes have been limited in number for Gen tags at same level long before anyone said there’s pressure issues and that number has not changed.
So it has to come from growing WY population and their regular resident OTC Gen tag numbers going up ?

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Could be more people are shifting to the southern region due to the growing grizzly population in the west region.

Or it has more gen units than east and takes less PP to draw than the west...makes perfect sense hunting pressure would go up.

OP is close probably go up, thinking closer to 10% for 5

 

[Laramie]

Right nim just trying to understand from those that have hunted the area for many years and say it’s going downhill. Is that increase coming from RESidents only?
NonRes have been limited in number for Gen tags at same level long before anyone said there’s pressure issues and that number has not changed.
So it has to come from growing WY population and their regular resident OTC Gen tag numbers going up ?

It isn't just hunters as I mentioned before. The number of people using the mountain for recreation has exponentially increased. My best guess is there are 2-3 recreationalists on the mountain for every 1 hunter. There are more resident hunters now as well. I have also seen a dramatic shift in elk behavior with them heading for low country earlier than they ever have. This has increased a little each year over the last 10 years. It isn't uncommon to find herds of 500+ elk in the sage, many miles from National forest, early in the season.

Here is a snip from the 2024 harvest report for area 9. Out of 1124 general tag hunters, they show 117 bull harvests. I know of one outfitter that took over 40 on private land. It isn't hard to see it's a low success rate hunt if guys do their homework.



Here is the area 10 report - a little better but there are more outfitted ranches in area 10. A good portion of the dead elk are coming off of private.


Wyoming uses hunter surveys to come up with these numbers so take the information for what it is - an educated guess.

 

[Laramie]

Or it has more gen units than east and takes less PP to draw than the west...makes perfect sense hunting pressure would go up.

OP is close probably go up, thinking closer to 10% for 5

The west was actually a little easier to draw than the south. West was over 45% with 5 points. South was just over 29%. I think the disparity would be greater if there wasn't so many outfitters operating in the west region. DIY guys success rates are higher out west... and they have a much lower % of CWD positive animals.

In general the average non-resident is terrified of bears and long pack outs. The south region is much easier to navigate with the road systems in place so it is a much easier hunt physically as well as mentally since there are fewer predators that can kill you.

 

[wytx]

I have been at it in this region since 1989... the last several years have just gotten stupid. I think they need to break it up into multiple seasons and make people choose archery or firearm.

No to choose your weapon, that is not Wyoming.
Maybe lower that NR quota instead.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

In general the average non-resident is terrified of bears and long pack outs.

Makes sense...but if your afraid of long pack outs and bears you are really limited to where you can hunt...Less WAs in the south as well.

 

[Bluumoon]

No to choose your weapon, that is not Wyoming.
Maybe lower that NR quota instead.

What are the #s of NR vs Resident and is it really a problem of NR #s ? Or as Laramie said is it generally more people in the mtns, or is it something else driving the elk behavior? Are the elk #s way down and overall the tag allocation needs to drop?

 

[go_deep]

What are the #s of NR vs Resident and is it really a problem of NR #s ? Or as Laramie said is it generally more people in the mtns, or is it something else driving the elk behavior? Are the elk #s way down and overall the tag allocation needs to drop?

I think the elk population is stable, just not evenly dispersed across the landscape, and the heavy recreation on public land all summer likely is part of the problem.