I applied for a deer tag in 2019 that based on the 2018 quota and number of applicants I should have been able to get as my second choice on the app (first choice being preference point) However when neither my son or I drew the tag I was stumped. Then after the season when the 2019 stats came out I saw that they reduced the number of tags from 350 to 225 for that unit and season.
My point is that when you are looking at Colorado statistics you are looking at last year's quotas and application numbers. There is no guarantee that they will be the same for the current year in which you are applying. Maybe the quota changes or maybe 250 people get on GoHunt or some such service and see that a good tag was being underutilized and they get a bump in applications for your unit. You simply don't know these variables going in.