What role does probablity play?

[mxgsfmdpx]

Yes. What’s your point?

It sounded like you were using them as an example of someone who is a proficient shooter.

 

[Formidilosus]

It sounded like you were using them as an example of someone who is a proficient shooter.

No, hence the “maybe”. I was using them as an example of what people believe is a proficient shooter. The military sucks at shooting. Across the board, and at all levels.

 

[MaraviaDave]

Is there a link for the MERC spreadsheet? Apparently my Google fu is weak.....

See post #16 in this thread, then expand the quote dialogue box, you’ll find the link for the MERC spreadsheet there.

 

[TreeWalking]

How do you dope the wind when is not a calm day? I have sat on a mountain Ridgeline and watched aspens moving in distinct, non-consistent sustained wind direction. In other words, my shot would most likely get pushed this way and that way over the 100s of yards. Add in gusts and is that much more complicated. Add in the latency as decide to slowly pull the trigger and the distance an animal can move before the bullet arrives that far. Does not take much of a step or spin to have the bullet impact a foot or more away from the intended impact point. I practice beyond 300 yards but rarely consider a shot at that distance except as a follow up shot. Same with archery. I would never initially shoot at 100 yards but if had a wounded animal then will try to get a second arrow launched so I like to know the trajectory at 100 yards.

 

[ElPollo]

What windspeed is this?

The area covered is greater than the entire windhold for 10 MPH + 10" for 1.5 MOA.

It looks like the WEZ is generating random wind calls using a normal, bell-shaped distribution. The spread you are seeing would be representative for 0 to about 12-14 mph. I live and hunt in some pretty windy country, and WEZ results like this makes me pretty cautious about pulling a trigger when I’m hunting

The point isn’t that you or your rifle sucks. It’s that everyone should realize that a) wind calling is hands down the most important skill western hunters should be focusing on, and b) overestimating our skills through selective practice in conditions that don’t reflect the real world we hunt in and tossing out flyer data are likely to bite us in the ass at some point.

Calling wind speed in the west is tough because it varies in time and space. You have differences between lulls and gusts, but you also can have situations where the wind speed and direction can differ significantly between you and your 700 yard target. If you are sitting in a sheltered spot below a ridge, the wind speed and direction your kestrel gives you will most likely not represent what’s going on in the middle of the canyon you are shooting across. The only way to get that information is by reading the mirage through your spotter or binos. And like Form says, that is not an exact science.

 

[ElPollo]

It looks like the WEZ is generating random wind calls using a normal, bell-shaped distribution. The spread you are seeing would be representative for 0 to about 12-14 mph. I live and hunt in some pretty windy country, and WEZ results like this makes me pretty cautious about pulling a trigger when I’m hunting

The point isn’t that you or your rifle sucks. It’s that everyone should realize that a) wind calling is hands down the most important skill western hunters should be focusing on, and b) overestimating our skills through selective practice in conditions that don’t reflect the real world we hunt in and tossing out flyer data are likely to bite us in the ass at some point.

Calling wind speed in the west is tough because it varies in time and space. You have differences between lulls and gusts, but you also can have situations where the wind speed and direction can differ significantly between you and your 700 yard target. If you are sitting in a sheltered spot below a ridge, the wind speed and direction your kestrel gives you will most likely not represent what’s going on in the middle of the canyon you are shooting across. The only way to get that information is by reading the mirage through your spotter or binos. And like Form says, that is not an exact science.

Correction. The WEZ is generating random wind speeds using a normal distribution and then it is adding the specified error rate of 2-4 mph for each scenario. So it’s likely using a 0-10 mph base wind assumption. The outer hits you are seeing represent calling the wind at 12-14 mph when it is actually 10 mph. At 700 yards, that can result in a 8-10” difference in POI.

 

[Formidilosus]

What windspeed is this?

The area covered is greater than the entire windhold for 10 MPH + 10" for 1.5 MOA.

The wind speed is irrelevant, though El Pollo has most correct. A 4mph error in wind speed results in the same drift whether it’s a 4mph wind instead of a 0mph, or a 54 mph wind instead of 50mph.

The WEZ is modeling the persons ability to call the wind to within two standard deviations. The results are very accurate to real life, and can be seen anecdotally and empirically in large numbers. The reality is first round hit percentages can be very low at long range, and very often are. People lie to themselves constantly, remembering only the success and forgetting the failures. Or they make excuses for the misses, or any number of other things. First round hits in mountainous, broken terrain even at relatively short range, are much lower than most will admit. The vast majority of hunters I spoke to this year missed at least one time on an animal- only a couple were “long range” hunters…

 

[AZ_Hunter_2000]

The wind speed is irrelevant, though El Pollo has most correct. A 4mph error in wind speed results in the same drift whether it’s a 4mph wind instead of a 0mph, or a 54 mph wind instead of 50mph.

The WEZ is modeling the persons ability to call the wind to within two standard deviations. The results are very accurate to real life, and can be seen anecdotally and empirically in large numbers. The reality is first round hit percentages can be very low at long range, and very often are. People lie to themselves constantly, remembering only the success and forgetting the failures. Or they make excuses for the misses, or any number of other things. First round hits in mountainous, broken terrain even at relatively short range, are much lower than most will admit. The vast majority of hunters I spoke to this year missed at least one time on an animal- only a couple were “long range” hunters…

Form...

How much value is there when you practice reading the wind, and shooting, with a rimfire? Or would someone be better off just using a centerfire?

 

[Formidilosus]

Form...

How much value is there when you practice reading the wind, and shooting, with a rimfire? Or would someone be better off just using a centerfire?

It helps, but it isn’t the same. There is much more benefit to it when using mils if you use wind brackets on your centerfire, as for instance instead of a 6mph wind bracket gun drifting .1 mil every hundred yards in a full value 6mph wind, the rimfire might be an 8mph gun, but drifting .1 mil every ten (10) yards. That certainly helps ingrain the process of wind calling and brackets. However calling wind at distance across broken terrain and ridge to ridge adds so many more potential errors, that it isn’t a one for one.

 

[AZ_Hunter_2000]

It helps, but it isn’t the same. There is much more benefit to it when using mils if you use wind brackets on your centerfire, as for instance instead of a 6mph wind bracket gun drifting .1 mil every hundred yards in a full value 6mph wind, the rimfire might be an 8mph gun, but drifting .1 mil every ten (10) yards. That certainly helps ingrain the process of wind calling and brackets. However calling wind at distance across broken terrain and ridge to ridge adds so many more potential errors, that it isn’t a one for one.

Thank you.

 

[OXN939]

I do have a legit question. Assuming a rifle shoots MOA and assuming a rifleman can not shoot with zero error, isn't there a theoretical limit to shots without banking on only a probability of a hit?

First round hits in mountainous, broken terrain even at relatively short range, are much lower than most will admit.

This times ten. Shooting precision rifle is always a game of probability, as there is always a chance of an optical failure or a hangfire or, more likely, a poor shot. Most hunters understand that you practice at the ranges you anticipate shooting, determine how far you can make consistent hits and keep your shots within that distance. Anything outside of those parameters starts to look unfavorable from the probability standpoint the OP mentions.

What often gets missed is the "range vs. real world" calculation. For the vast majority of hunts, you get one opportunity to make a shot using a cold bore and a field expedient rest under, often, less than ideal conditions. The difference between this and punching a group from a nice, cozy, prone, perfectly level shooting platform on a range is substantial.

So, to the OP, I would suggest doing the norm- setting your rifle up right, finding a load it likes, spending some time shooting at distance on a range to verify your dope. Then, take the extra step of setting up a "real world range" if possible where you get one round with a cold bore from weird positions at unknown ranges. Run a bunch of those and keep track of the results, and you'll probably get a pretty good idea where the probability calculation you mention in your first post shakes out.