What a Recovering Mule Deer Herd Looks Like

[robby denning]

It's been hard to find good news in the mule deer world, but it's out there. At the recent Mule Deer Days, I interviewed a couple bios from the Monteith Shop. While the focus is on Wyoming, the info they present is applicable to any migrating mule deer herd limited by winter severity

Recovering Mule Deer with the Monteith Shop - Rokslide

Robby recently interviewed Rebekah Rafferty and Kevin Monteith at the Mule Deer Days in Rock Springs, Wyoming. They talk about what a recovering mule deer herd looks like in the Wyoming Range and beyond.

www.rokslide.com

or wherever you listen to podcasts

 

[king402]

I just listened to it this morning. Great info and worth the listen! Still is hard to fathom a 70% die-off after the 2022-23 winter!

 

[robby denning]

I just listened to it this morning. Great info and worth the listen! Still is hard to fathom a 70% die-off after the 2022-23 winter!

sure is! I think some of that country east of the Wasatch hit 80% if I remember right.

thanks for listening in

 

[ahansel]

sure is! I think some of that country east of the Wasatch hit 80% if I remember right.

thanks for listening in

Page 58 of the Utah DWR document below has the deer herd population estimates for 2022, 2023, and 20224 by general deer unit. For the Wasatch Mtns, West unit they're showing a herd decline of ~32%. BUT that unit extends all the way out east to Strawberry Reservoir. The deer along the Wasatch Front got hit the hardest bc there's so much development on winter range that the snowfall was insane that winter. From where I've hunted & glassed winter range herd reduction has to be at least 50% along the front.

https://wildlife.utah.gov/public_meetings/rac/2025-04-rac-packet.pdf

I live on the Wasatch and have had the dedicated hunter deer tag for a bit. After the '22-'23 winter there were PILES of dead deer on winter range.

 

[ahansel]

Just another stat from the the Utah DWR herd estimates by GD unit, the East Canyon unit saw a ~78% herd decline after the '22 - '23 winter. That's all wasatch front. The derr on Wasatch front part of the Wasatch Mtns, West unit likely saw a decline similar to the East Canyon.

 

[idelkslayer]

Learned a lot form this podcast, thank you Robby and Guests.

I'm fascinated by the possibility of body fat being used as a metric to track carrying capacity in the future. The decline in body fat during what I would consider the very good years of 2013-2016 is so interesting. I remember that local reservoirs were down for much of that time period indicating drought like conditions. Maybe if we had more moisture the deer would have been able to maintain higher fat and continue to grow the population.

I wonder if body fat can be used as a tool to help determine when more does should be harvested. Game agencies could add in more doe harvest opportunity if biologists are observing a multi-year decline in body fat percentage. In theory this would improve the body condition and survival of the female deer and help flatten those peaks and valleys. It sounds like it results in more robust fawns as well. Then when the body fat is observed to be stable or rising it would be an indication that doe harvest can be reduced because carrying capacity has increased.

So much goes into carrying capacity but with body fat measurements we have an objective metric for knowing how deer are doing on the landscape.

 

[robby denning]

Just another stat from the the Utah DWR herd estimates by GD unit, the East Canyon unit saw a ~78% herd decline after the '22 - '23 winter. That's all wasatch front. The derr on Wasatch front part of the Wasatch Mtns, West unit likely saw a decline similar to the East Canyon.

that was the one stat I'd heard about. losing nearly 80% of deer is mind-blowing

 

[robby denning]

Learned a lot form this podcast, thank you Robby and Guests.

I'm fascinated by the possibility of body fat being used as a metric to track carrying capacity in the future. The decline in body fat during what I would consider the very good years of 2013-2016 is so interesting. I remember that local reservoirs were down for much of that time period indicating drought like conditions. Maybe if we had more moisture the deer would have been able to maintain higher fat and continue to grow the population.

I wonder if body fat can be used as a tool to help determine when more does should be harvested. Game agencies could add in more doe harvest opportunity if biologists are observing a multi-year decline in body fat percentage. In theory this would improve the body condition and survival of the female deer and help flatten those peaks and valleys. It sounds like it results in more robust fawns as well. Then when the body fat is observed to be stable or rising it would be an indication that doe harvest can be reduced because carrying capacity has increased.

So much goes into carrying capacity but with body fat measurements we have an objective metric for knowing how deer are doing on the landscape.

Yes on BF% being a metric that they can use (among others) to determine capacity, etc.

The problem is there is a bunch of hunters who don't believe anything the Departments put out.

We have better and better tools and data than even 10 years ago. But it will take a shift in many hunters minds to actually accept it as valid.

 

[TaperPin]

*chuckle*

Big die offs and rapid recoveries are just part of nature. Give it another decade and we’ll have another area get hit hard and crowds of people will cry about the deer being wiped out permanently, but it’s just another chapter. Live long enough and you’ll see it over and over and over and over - you’ll also develop a passive aggressive way of saying, “ I told you so,” without actually saying it.

 

[robby denning]

*chuckle*

Big die offs and rapid recoveries are just part of nature. Give it another decade and we’ll have another area get hit hard and crowds of people will cry about the deer being wiped out permanently, but it’s just another chapter. Live long enough and you’ll see it over and over and over and over - you’ll also develop a passive aggressive way of saying, “ I told you so,” without actually saying it.

Agreed

 

[king402]

Yes on BF% being a metric that they can use (among others) to determine capacity, etc.

The problem is there is a bunch of hunters who don't believe anything the Departments put out.

We have better and better tools and data than even 10 years ago. But it will take a shift in many hunters minds to actually accept it as valid.

Robby,

Do you think hunters don't believe anything the Departments put out could have to do with tag allocation numbers every year? There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason other than budget reasons for tag numbers. Here's a couple examples from Utah. As you pointed out, a good chunk of the Northern part of Utah had upwards of 80% mortality after the 22-23 winter. We've now only had 2 hunting seasons since then for the herds to recover. I know deer herds can recover quickly but I don't think they can recover that quickly, yet Utah is increasing tag numbers for those devastated units significantly.

The North Slope unit along the UTWY border is going from 2,300 deer tags in 2024 to 2,900 tags this year. That's a 26% increase from just last year. Is that herd doing so exceptionally well that those high increases are justified? The Ogden unit, one of the hardest hit units that winter, just two years later is getting a 21% increase going from 1,900 tags in 2024 to 2,300 tags in 2025. Every doe must have had quadruplets both years and every fawn survived to justify those kinds of increases so quickly after such a huge die-off.

Overall, Utah is going from 64,725 tags in 2023 and 71,525 in 2024 to 80,600 tags in 2025. Mule deer are struggling all over the West, and Utah is no exception, yet we keep seeing these significant increases. Seems insane to me.

Maybe I'm wrong and please feel free to set me straight like you did Dustin Wittwer on his podcast. I could tell you got the wheels in his brain turning during that conversation/lecture. I'm definitely open minded to this tag increase if it is justifiable but it just seems to be too much too soon. I sure hope you and TaperPin can say "told you so" in the next few years!!

Thoughts?

 

[Pcecil]

In my area, Northern Colorado, the recovering herd looks to be about 20% whitetail. Recovering from CWD culling.

 

[robby denning]

Robby,

Do you think hunters don't believe anything the Departments put out could have to do with tag allocation numbers every year? There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason other than budget reasons for tag numbers. Here's a couple examples from Utah. As you pointed out, a good chunk of the Northern part of Utah had upwards of 80% mortality after the 22-23 winter. We've now only had 2 hunting seasons since then for the herds to recover. I know deer herds can recover quickly but I don't think they can recover that quickly, yet Utah is increasing tag numbers for those devastated units significantly.

The North Slope unit along the UTWY border is going from 2,300 deer tags in 2024 to 2,900 tags this year. That's a 26% increase from just last year. Is that herd doing so exceptionally well that those high increases are justified? The Ogden unit, one of the hardest hit units that winter, just two years later is getting a 21% increase going from 1,900 tags in 2024 to 2,300 tags in 2025. Every doe must have had quadruplets both years and every fawn survived to justify those kinds of increases so quickly after such a huge die-off.

Overall, Utah is going from 64,725 tags in 2023 and 71,525 in 2024 to 80,600 tags in 2025. Mule deer are struggling all over the West, and Utah is no exception, yet we keep seeing these significant increases. Seems insane to me.

Maybe I'm wrong and please feel free to set me straight like you did Dustin Wittwer on his podcast. I could tell you got the wheels in his brain turning during that conversation/lecture. I'm definitely open minded to this tag increase if it is justifiable but it just seems to be too much too soon. I sure hope you and TaperPin can say "told you so" in the next few years!!

Thoughts?

I don't need to set anybody straight, and I don't do any of this to say I told anyone so.

How many fawns were born in the units you mentioned, and statewide in Utah compared to the buck:doe ratio objective Ut has set for each unit? Where do you think the tag numbers from 2023 at 65K should be now? Based on what data?

 

[Customweld]

Excellent Podcast!