Western Land Prices

[cjdewese]

Where I live in Rural Southern California, I know sounds strange but I graduated with 58 people my senior year, our home prices have doubled since 2015. My friend just sold his for double what he bought it for in 2015, pretty wild times we live in.

 

[307]

I’m curious if you guys are seeing land prices super inflated in the more remote parts of the western states. I live in one of the least populated counties in the TX Hill Country approx. 5k residents and our property values are about to double since the rona hit. I own a Land Surveying firm and we’re currently booked until July. It’s always the same story, people are leaving the cities and heading to the hills.

*licks chops waiting for the bubble to burst *

 

[IdahoElk]

Here comes 2008 2.0

 

[Squincher]

Here comes 2008 2.0

I think I'll wait to get in on the back end this time.

 

[bigmooi]

We were notified that our house value increased by $40-60k for taxes here in MN and we have not added anything. But our state is hemorrhaging money at the county and state level with the covid and the riots...

People I work with down in Austin, TX say they are having a increase in $40-70k every 30-40 days...

This market is going to walk off a cliff...

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[rob86jeep]

I lot of people seem to think this is a bubble and the bubble is about to burst because the 2008 crash is recent in our memories. However, one of the main reasons for the crazy prices is the lack of available homes for sale which is completely different than the 2008 issue. COVID shut down a lot of construction and slowed down what didn't shut down. It's going to take years for this to start correcting itself. I don't see anything dropping significantly in price for a while. I would say to rush out and buy right now, but I also wouldn't put off a purchase just because of prices right now.

 

[Timeless61]

I lot of people seem to think this is a bubble and the bubble is about to burst because the 2008 crash is recent in our memories. However, one of the main reasons for the crazy prices is the lack of available homes for sale which is completely different than the 2008 issue. COVID shut down a lot of construction and slowed down what didn't shut down. It's going to take years for this to start correcting itself. I don't see anything dropping significantly in price for a while. I would say to rush out and buy right now, but I also wouldn't put off a purchase just because of prices right now.

Agreed. The circumstances for this are completely different than 2008. Pricing is explained by more normal factors than 2008. The fed will also most likely not let anything too crazy happen any time soon.

 

[FLAK]

We bought 2 yrs ago. Appraised value has risen 77K.

 

[grfox92]

It makes sense. Many People can work from anywhere now due to Covid.

—-

This is the thing nobody seems to understand. I live outside Cody and every single out of staters says the same thing. "I can work from home wherever I want now because of covid."

Companies saw that employees don't need to be at an expensive piece of real estate 5 days a week to do their jobs OR have meetings.

So people can literally move to these beautiful small rural communities where there is no jobs and be fine.

Weather or not they last and don't move somewhere else is TBD. Minds may change when they get hit with the Wyoming wind, Grizzly Bears and rattle snakes haha.

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[CorbLand]

I lot of people seem to think this is a bubble and the bubble is about to burst because the 2008 crash is recent in our memories. However, one of the main reasons for the crazy prices is the lack of available homes for sale which is completely different than the 2008 issue. COVID shut down a lot of construction and slowed down what didn't shut down. It's going to take years for this to start correcting itself. I don't see anything dropping significantly in price for a while. I would say to rush out and buy right now, but I also wouldn't put off a purchase just because of prices right now.

This and the largest generation to exist is entering the market. Most people were given enough for 3% down on a house in the form of stimulus checks.

It’s hard because my wife and I finally got to the point of a house being do able in February. Great timing for us.

 

[4rcgoat]

This and the largest generation to exist is entering the market. Most people were given enough for 3% down on a house in the form of stimulus checks.

It’s hard because my wife and I finally got to the point of a house being do able in February. Great timing for us.

With only 3% down and prices inflated,most payments are going to be tough to swing for some. I see this whole thing imploding.

 

[Timeless61]

With only 3% down and prices inflated,most payments are going to be tough to swing for some. I see this whole thing imploding.

From what I have been hearing and reading the credit worthiness or quality of credit is much greater this time around. I have been delayed for a number of reasons buying a house now basically over two years. The timing is frustrating, but everything I am seeing is to not try to time this and even if there is a bit of a bubble it may not completely pop and go to pre-pandemic.

 

[CorbLand]

With only 3% down and prices inflated,most payments are going to be tough to swing for some. I see this whole thing imploding.

It will eventually but the question is when and to what level.

 

[MattB]

I lot of people seem to think this is a bubble and the bubble is about to burst because the 2008 crash is recent in our memories. However, one of the main reasons for the crazy prices is the lack of available homes for sale which is completely different than the 2008 issue. COVID shut down a lot of construction and slowed down what didn't shut down. It's going to take years for this to start correcting itself. I don't see anything dropping significantly in price for a while. I would say to rush out and buy right now, but I also wouldn't put off a purchase just because of prices right now.

That and the money supply has increased considerlably with all the COVID stimulus.

 

[dreamingbig]

And the velocity of money is way down.

Housing inventory is still non existent. New construction costs are through the roof (price OSB anyone?) and banks ability to lend on new construction is much more limited now than pre 2008.

I don’t see home prices crashing if the Fed keeps printing money. Price out the cost of the deficit if treasury yields rise 3%. Gulp.


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[WeiserBucks]

I bought a decent manufactured home on a very rural 5 acres for $125K in 2017, had a guy knock on my door last Friday and offer $350K cash. It's very tempting but I'd need $650K+ to upgrade location or home quality in the area. I'll wait and enjoy building equity.

 

[djfergus]

This is like Deja Vu. Coming off 9/11 interest rates were near zero, stimulus checks, commodity price went up hard, houses sold site unseen and for more than listed for, vacant land skyrocket, then all those crazy purchases on huge loans had to pay the piper. '07-'12 i got some awesome deals of foreclosed houses.
Just can't imagine we don't end up there again.

My thoughts exactly. Housing bubble will be back with gusto. At the time I built my my house in 2008, 2600 sq ft was a big house for a blue collar guy around here. Now we have blue collar families building 4-5k sq ft houses frequently around here. I just don't get it.

 

[Josh Wright]

Supply and demand. Youd be stunned at how much money is out there. The ones that took advantage of last March, made a ton of money.

 

[Jimmy]

Here in California in my area homes have about doubled in value in the last 6 years. Many people have taken to having a family member live with them and help make their payments. That's with both spouses working full time jobs too.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I see this whole thing imploding.

Nationally, maybe......young families in tract housing in anytown, USA who have taken out equity as a result of the rising market values are the ones who will get burned again. But in hot areas like coastal areas, ski resort areas out West (which I think is more relevant to this forum), I don't see it happening. There was already an invasion of CO, MT, and WY going on, even before CV-19 started. This last year has only exacerbated it, but at this point supply is at a low that is unprecedented, so past situations don't necessarily apply here. JMHO