Western Hunt Expo 2022 $ raised

[sneaky]

Looks like the best odds for a buck or bull tag is about 1/850. Henry Mtns deer was 1/9924. Most are 1/2000+. That one guy pulled tags in consecutive years with over 1/3000 odds.

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[HaydenLane]

I get surprised how FEW well known names draw these. If your business is making hunts, $1k (minus $5 per undesirable turkey, donkey, Jhoils buck, whatever else can't be a money-making film) seems like a great investment. I wouldn't be surprised to learn well known names put in for every tag, year after year, and therefore seem to draw a lot.

Someone who does the mathing good can figure out what the chances of drawing one, if you put in for all?

Remi has said before that he puts in for basically every raffle he can. Often the odds are going to be better than the draw.

 

[sndmn11]

You can look at the draw odds on the second page of the draw results. That tag that Matt drew had 3648 applicants with one tag. He beat pretty good odds. I hope he kills a slob. You can buy a ticket for each of the 200 tags, or just for all the deer, or all the elk, etc. But, you only get one chance at each hunt so these guys aren't loading up 500 chances on one hunt. The odds that someone draws a tag two years in a row? Astronomical, except at Expo I guess. Some of those hunts have over 6k applicants.

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I am meaning what are the odds of drawing one if putting in for all. I'm aware they post the individual tag odds, but I think there is some super honors stats mathing that takes place to fancy it up and figure out one out of all.

 

[brn2hnt]

I am meaning what are the odds of drawing one if putting in for all. I'm aware they post the individual tag odds, but I think there is some super honors stats mathing that takes place to fancy it up and figure out one out of all.

I did the math based on the draw odds listed for 2022. There's 97 draws (176 tags) listed for what I would consider actual target draws for most folks. No antlerless elk, no turkey, no black bear. Just bull elk, buck deer, buck pronghorn, and the OIL type hunts.

This year you would have had 5.84% odds of drawing a single tag.

Quite a bit better than I would have guessed.

 

[sndmn11]

I did the math based on the draw odds listed for 2022. There's 97 draws (176 tags) listed for what I would consider actual target draws for most folks. No antlerless elk, no turkey, no black bear. Just bull elk, buck deer, buck pronghorn, and the OIL type hunts.

This year you would have had 5.84% odds of drawing a single tag.

Quite a bit better than I would have guessed.

I don't k ow how to verify, but, if that is correct I think it helps explain why those who make it their business to hunt turn these up regularly.

If we pretend there are 50 famous people who put in for all of what you decided above were good tags, what is the percentage ONE of those fifty famous draws any tag?

 

[brn2hnt]

I don't k ow how to verify, but, if that is correct I think it helps explain why those who make it their business to hunt turn these up regularly.

If we pretend there are 50 famous people who put in for all of what you decided above were good tags, what is the percentage ONE of those fifty famous draws any tag?

95.08% if there are 50 applicants at 5.84%

 

[sndmn11]

95.08% if there are 50 applicants at 5.84%

You get gold star.

 

[Josh Boyd]

Me = just a donation to a good cause.

A few years back, @Josh Boyd drew a good elk tag and made good on it.

Not sure of any members though.

And with a single positive reinforcement of drawing a tag, I am at the expo every year dropping $$ for a chance to win another!

 

[sneaky]

I did the math based on the draw odds listed for 2022. There's 97 draws (176 tags) listed for what I would consider actual target draws for most folks. No antlerless elk, no turkey, no black bear. Just bull elk, buck deer, buck pronghorn, and the OIL type hunts.

This year you would have had 5.84% odds of drawing a single tag.

Quite a bit better than I would have guessed.

I don't think your math is quite right on those draw odds. 176 in demand tags and close to 40k apps... there were 46k people who went to the Expo, pretty much all of them bought raffle chances. That's about 0.44% odds

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[sneaky]

Our own WKR Matt Cashell drew a tag, 1 tag available and 3648 apps for that one tag... that's a little below 5.84%. All of the LE bull tags had over 2k apps on each one. Just added up the bull elk apps:171,062( give or take a few) for 91 total tags in 46 different draws.

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[passinggas33]

Our own WKR Matt Cashell drew a tag, 1 tag available and 3648 apps for that one tag... that's a little below 5.84%. All of the LE bull tags had over 2k apps on each one. Just added up the bull elk apps:171,062( give or take a few) for 91 total tags in 46 different draws.

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To find the odds to draw that tag, don’t you divide 1 tag by 3648 applicants? That would be .027% chance of drawing. I’m a little confused by your math here. But maybe my math is wrong and that’s why I’ve never drawn one of these tags before.

 

[robby denning]

And with a single positive reinforcement of drawing a tag, I am at the expo every year dropping $$ for a chance to win another!

View attachment 384244

Now they’ve got a customer for life and odds are u never draw again ha ha ha ha

 

[uwantasandwich]

I don't think your math is quite right on those draw odds. 176 in demand tags and close to 40k apps... there were 46k people who went to the Expo, pretty much all of them bought raffle chances. That's about 0.44% odds

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i believe his math is correct. that 5% is the probability that you draw at least one tag if you put in for all of them. that is not the same as the situation you are describing where everyone is in one big pot and they pull 176 names from it

 

[brn2hnt]

i believe his math is correct. that 5% is the probability that you draw at least one tag if you put in for all of them. that is not the same as the situation you are describing where everyone is in one big pot and they pull 176 names from it

This ^^ Your odds restart after each drawing. Just like if you flip a coin 10 times, the odds of your next flip have no bearing on the previous flips.

I calculated the odds of NOT drawing every single tag, then multiplied all those together, (to get your odds of NOT drawing any of the tags) and subtracted from 1 to get your odds of actually drawing a tag.

@sneaky I tried to quote your post as well, but apparently, that is beyond my capabilities

 

[sneaky]

i believe his math is correct. that 5% is the probability that you draw at least one tag if you put in for all of them. that is not the same as the situation you are describing where everyone is in one big pot and they pull 176 names from it

No, none of the elk tags had less than 2150 applicants for any single tag. There's zero possibility of having 5% draw odds even if you put in for all 46 separate elk draws. The most tags in one pool was 9 I think, with about 7500 apps in that one. 9/7500 isn't anywhere close to 5%. San Juan rifle tag had over 9k apps for 1 tag, you do the math. You can buy a chance for every single tag the Expo offers and your odds don't come close to 5% in any of them. Heck, even the turkey tags had over 300 or 400 apps on each one. That's the best odds of pulling a tag, and that's what 0.33% chance with 300 as the baseline?

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[sneaky]

This ^^ Your odds restart after each drawing. Just like if you flip a coin 10 times, the odds of your next flip have no bearing on the previous flips.

I calculated the odds of NOT drawing every single tag, then multiplied all those together, (to get your odds of NOT drawing any of the tags) and subtracted from 1 to get your odds of actually drawing a tag.

@sneaky I tried to quote your post as well, but apparently, that is beyond my capabilities

Your odds don't restart after each drawing. I want to see the math that says if there's 1 tag and 9900 applicants that you've got a 5% chance of drawing that tag. I'll wait. Or, the 1 tag with 4500apps... again, I'll wait. You take the 46 separate elk draws with 91 total tags. You can be in 46 separate draws, but most of those draws have one tag available with thousands of applicants. You're using govt math if you think you're in those with a 5% chance of drawing.

171,062 elk applicants all added together for 46 draws, average of 3718 per draw. Even if you took the best case scenario with 9/3718 you come up with .24% chance of drawing one of 9 tags... but, there were over 7k apps for those 9 tags.

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[sneaky]

To find the odds to draw that tag, don’t you divide 1 tag by 3648 applicants? That would be .027% chance of drawing. I’m a little confused by your math here. But maybe my math is wrong and that’s why I’ve never drawn one of these tags before.

Confused how? I was pointing out that's below the mythical 5.84% number they said he had on that draw. You missed the sarcasm in that one.

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[brn2hnt]

No, none of the elk tags had less than 2150 applicants for any single tag. There's zero possibility of having 5% draw odds even if you put in for all 46 separate elk draws. The most tags in one pool was 9 I think, with about 7500 apps in that one. 9/7500 isn't anywhere close to 5%. San Juan rifle tag had over 9k apps for 1 tag, you do the math. You can buy a chance for every single tag the Expo offers and your odds don't come close to 5% in any of them. Heck, even the turkey tags had over 300 or 400 apps on each one. That's the best odds of pulling a tag, and that's what 0.33% chance with 300 as the baseline?

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[brn2hnt]

To calculate the odds of drawing 1 tag in 97 unique draws, you don't just add all the apps together and all the tags together.

You calculate the odds of not drawing each one individually. Then you multiply the odds of not drawing each draw together. Then you have the odds of not drawing all of them, so you subtract from 1 to get the odds of drawing 1 tag out of 97 unique draws.

 

[passinggas33]

Confused how? I was pointing out that's below the mythical 5.84% number they said he had on that draw. You missed the sarcasm in that one.

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Gotcha. Definitely missed the sarcasm.