TopRut draw odds tool. Replacement?

[Yoteassasin]

I can get close enough to NV odds without a lot of effort.
With Powerball, I have effectively the same odds finding the winning ticket on the ground as buying one.

And, $9.99 is effectively $10.
Using that logic, NV odds are 0%.

Haahaha

 

[elkocd]

You can pretty much feed Claude date already and get this with a little elbow grease….

Kind of — as someone who builds AI-driven tools for very large corporations and fed agencies, LLMs are only as good as the context they have. Without specific domain knowledge, they're limited to what's in their training data — which means they'll confidently hallucinate draw odds, fabricate season dates, and get state-specific draw systems wrong.

You can definitely get far pasting data into Claude — it's great at reasoning over what you give it. But there's a gap between that and reliably answering something like "What are my draw odds for Unit 61 bull elk as a nonresident with 3 points, and how does that compare to Unit 70?"

The core problem is domain context at scale. Ten states, many species, 1,400+ hunt units — each with unique draw systems (preference, bonus-squared, weighted random, hybrid pools), residency rules, tag types, and fee structures. That's tens of thousands of rows of draw odds, harvest stats, season dates, and trophy records, plus 175K+ documents from regulations and forums. It doesn't fit in a context window.

That's where RAG comes in — retrieval-augmented generation pulls just the relevant data for a given question and grounds the response in real numbers instead of hallucinated draw odds. And MCP servers / structured data pipelines keep it current as states publish new results and change regulations each year.

The copy-paste approach works for one question about one unit when you already have the data handy. The value of a purpose-built tool is answering questions you *don't* already know the answer to — across states, consistently, with data you can trust.

 

[bz_711]

I've only dug into WY, MT, and CO...and I find their draw reports easy to read and easy to compare last 3 yrs for a particular unit. I think digging thru the hard data is how you find your best "secrets"

 

[khart_6882]

Soon there will be a new hunt reseach tool out that is way beyond anything out there now. Just think not only static draw odds based on history, but also AI driven research. I've been lucky enough to get to test it and it's next level not only in terms of the draw odds research, but also in terms of the predictive AI. It won't be out for a bit, but if anyone is interested send me a DM and I will let you know when it's released.

Thank god!!! Companies like gohunt haven’t made getting tags hard enough already!!

 

[Yoteassasin]

The best tags are the ones you
Know the harvest reports are lied about . I know a place that I can’t imagine would t be an 80-95% take . But alas it shows 30 on the state report

 

[hunthikecamp]

Not sure if they do a month to month but gohunt is the best ive seen. Ignore their AI predictive odds, but theyve done the work to compile past data which is most of the work. Gohunt will quickly get you a 90% answer and include context like public land %age, but the state published data will get you the last bit. If i use gohunt for even my 0/1 point apps, i always finish my research in the state published data once I get a crude filtering done in Gohunt.

 

[gsully]

Did you use Claude to build that?

 

[elkocd]

Did you use Claude to build that?

I use many different tools. I've been a software engineer for nearly 30 years, most recently specializing in AI and data science for large corporations and federal agencies.

 

[wapitibob]

The problem with odds is you're looking at last years data and there aren't a handful of people getting the data needed to make a reasonable guess for the upcoming draws. Most use a states draw odds reports as their base and half the available applicants aren't even shown on those reports.

 

[gsully]

Nice, that's pretty impressive. Like alot of AI impacted areas, I can see these applicaion services (gohunt, top rut, etc) really loosing their edge. We can literally dump an entire state agency's website into Claude and it will do this for us. With Claude Cowork, you can even have it navigate the state's website and pull the information on its own. Not to mention come up with its own predictive modeling. Wild times!

 

[elkocd]

Nice, that's pretty impressive. Like alot of AI impacted areas, I can see these applicaion services (gohunt, top rut, etc) really loosing their edge. We can literally dump an entire state agency's website into Claude and it will do this for us. With Claude Cowork, you can even have it navigate the state's website and pull the information on its own. Not to mention come up with its own predictive modeling. Wild times!

Yes, kind of. See my earlier post regarding this. AI is amazing, but it's only as good as the context it has. When you're talking about a specific domain, you have to make sure it has all the correct context in a manageable way, or you're just getting back answers that may or may not be relevant or accurate. There's no way to do that inside a tool like Claude chat. When we develop systems for large organizations, that's the most important part. Anyone can go to a chatbot and ask questions and get answers, but that doesn't mean they're getting the answers they really need, or that those answers are accurate for the domain they're asking about. And then you have to present the info in a way that's digestible to everyone who might use the tools.

To your point, vibe coding will absolutely disrupt every area of software, but it will also dilute things down to tools that are junk and tools that are actually useful and intuitive. The difference between vibe-coded tools and actual AI-driven software will be obvious to all of us who use them.

 

[Indian Summer]

It’s too easy to figure out to be worth paying for. And if you do a little homework you will be more accurate than those apps. An error in predicted drawing odds could cause a serious planning problem. No thanks

 

[gsully]

Yes, kind of. See my earlier post regarding this. AI is amazing, but it's only as good as the context it has. When you're talking about a specific domain, you have to make sure it has all the correct context in a manageable way, or you're just getting back answers that may or may not be relevant or accurate. There's no way to do that inside a tool like Claude chat. When we develop systems for large organizations, that's the most important part. Anyone can go to a chatbot and ask questions and get answers, but that doesn't mean they're getting the answers they really need, or that those answers are accurate for the domain they're asking about. And then you have to present the info in a way that's digestible to everyone who might use the tools.

To your point, vibe coding will absolutely disrupt every area of software, but it will also dilute things down to tools that are junk and tools that are actually useful and intuitive. The difference between vibe-coded tools and actual AI-driven software will be obvious to all of us who use them.

Well I’m using Claude Cowork, and you can give it direct connections to applications. This seems to be feasible for these purposes.