The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Escalante11]

Here is a visual of how the curve has moved given the conversation earlier. Apper that December futures have squezed back into the $80s again, but the takeaway here is that the market remains positioned around a more near term resolution.



Some related charts (all as of end of market day today):

 

[WRO]

I’ve been playing Mara options the last couple of days, been averaging 30% a trade on them.

 

[Poser]

China stated that they intend to get their oil out of the strait. Will be interesting to see if the US blockade actually intends to seize Chinese ships. I tend to think that they won't, but I could be wrong and that outcome has the potential to spiral.

 

[Poser]

China stated that they intend to get their oil out of the strait. Will be interesting to see if the US blockade actually intends to seize Chinese ships. I tend to think that they won't, but I could be wrong and that outcome has the potential to spiral.

Chinese tankers were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump's naval blockade.

 

[HuntHarder]

Perfect, another green start to the day. Heading toward 50k on the DOW? It's amazing that even during a war, the stock market dropped and recovered rather quickly. Our economy must be doing good.

 

[Beendare]

I wouldn't invest in the equities of asset managers directly today. I would, and do, dabble however in some of their underlying BDCs where private credit contagion fears have been overblown. Names to consider there would be GBDC and SLR for example, though both are already starting to recover slightly in recent couple weeks.

If you want PE, buy into a recently launched interval fund. You'll avoid all the market related volatility of holding the equities such as BX. CAPVX is where I park ~17.5% of my 401K and would fit your bill here but isn't easily traded and need to be willing to sign up to a longer vision.

Thx for the tip, I will take a look.

I think just about everyone knows by now that oil isn't going to snap back and that it will have an effect on the world economy.

One thing I think we need to consider; This conflict has slapped many that are complacent upside the face. This admin got people thinking about onshoring industries and jobs- a strategic move. Oil in the US was still pretty stagnant until recently. It feels like US oil and natural gas is really ramping up for strategic reasons.

That is going to be a long term positive for us as American consumers.

I just bought some ADBE today. I think the claim that AI is going to destroy their business is wrong, I think it will help.

 

[BBob]

It's amazing that even during a war, the stock market dropped and recovered rather quickly.

The S&P reversal with a 7x7 (7 days, +7%) has only happened 3 times prior and this makes it a 4th with April of last year being the 3rd. Crazy times!

 

[Escalante11]

Thx for the tip, I will take a look.

I think just about everyone knows by now that oil isn't going to snap back and that it will have an effect on the world economy.

One thing I think we need to consider; This conflict has slapped many that are complacent upside the face. This admin got people thinking about onshoring industries and jobs- a strategic move. Oil in the US was still pretty stagnant until recently. It feels like US oil and natural gas is really ramping up for strategic reasons.

That is going to be a long term positive for us as American consumers.

I just bought some ADBE today. I think the claim that AI is going to destroy their business is wrong, I think it will help.

No idea where you are seeing that things have been ramping up for strategic reasons.. We have fewer producing oil and gas wells today than before covid, and that trend continues to move lower and lower. We have seen a very minor tick up in forward capex expectations but most of that is more midstream and downstream projects, as opposed to true new production capabilities... We hear plenty of the "drill, baby drill" narrative, but the reality on the ground is that there has been little, if any, increase in investment of new oil and gas production capabilities. Oil and gas execs don't get paid to satisify the President's retoric. They get paid to i) return capital to shareholders (e.g., dividends, share repurchases), ii) improve corporate governance, and in select cases, iii) invest in new production initiatives with outstanding ROI prospects.

There isn't a single oil and gas exec who will invest hundreds of millions in new production efforts, and on the forecast of $50 - $60 oil, just to get highly penalized by their investors (in the form of a cratering stock price). The current admin botched their recent efforts to incentize new investment in the country's oil and gas production up until now, though they may certainly end up getting bailed out with the Iran debacle. Please see my two charts below which are based on 4/13 data.

Commodities follow supply/demand cycles. Only when forward price curves get high enough to satisfy ROI targets, will new drilling occur. Federal incentives/policy don't move the needle much, if at all.






And while the data presented above is more of a lagging indicator than anything, oil and gas execs continue to tamper new investment expectations. Here we see results of last months capex survey amongst oil and gas execs. It shows some increase, but not near as much as one would expect, especially when alot of expectations represented in the 'increased slightly' and 'increased significantly' bucket will fail to reach actual investment decisions.

 

[safarihunter]

This administration and trump himself has stated that it will not go back instantly. They are aware that it will take some time for things to normalize. It’s not a secret that they traded this aspect for what they see as longer term stability with Iran going forward and into the future. As far as botching it time will tell.

Every time someone starts screaming that the sky is falling after a trump administration action has turned out to be pretty much wrong. Tariffs and stock market crash anyone? The market makers for sure are going to do what they do. They will take advantage of any news and will play the market just like they always do.

And please don’t turn this into a political bashing contest.

Instantly was overstating it, you are correct. But it doesn't seem like the supply shock is priced in at the correct magnitude.

Agreed that (at least the majority of) market makers will make money regardless of the what the market does. They have the levers to pull, plus with this admin more insider info than perhaps is "normal".

I did try to keep my political thoughts tied to my thoughts on stock/commodity strategy. I don't want to see this thread shut down either. Hence the phrase "I'm betting on" (since I'm not smart enough to really say that I'm as well researched an investor as many on this thread). I am literally placing money based on the above thoughts.

 

[Poser]

"Drill Baby Drill" was a lie to dupe people who don't understand that oil is a global commodity. The implication was that America will drill more and therefore oil will be cheaper for Americans. As @Escalante11 explained above, oil companies are global corporations who supply a global commodity and report to their shareholders and their shareholders alone. They are not subject to the whims or even demands of the POTUS. Its not necessarily even in these companies' interests that oil is "cheap" and "drill baby drill" would require billions of dollars of investment over the course of years and American crude is still going straight to the export market. If you want the direct results of "drill baby drill" then you should be advocating to nationalize oil production by the way of the federal government seizing all oil production assets from these companies and decoupling the US from the global market (which would be a total economic disaster).

 

[Beendare]

It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Admittedly I sold all of my oil stuff over a year ago and don't follow it that much.

And yeah, I still see the stats but it sure seems like the oil and gas execs might be coming around especially on Nat gas with nuclear so far out. It will probably be years before the Hormuz straight settles down.

 

[Ucsdryder]

Thoughts on these options for 401k? I can do a percentage or all. It goes in order of most to least aggressive

 

[LFC911]

Thoughts on these options for 401k? I can do a percentage or all. It goes in order of most to least aggressive View attachment 1052357View attachment 1052358
View attachment 1052359

it all comes down to your risk tolerance. It looks like you have everything in the 2055 fund, so 21 years out. I would recommend 100% FXAIX S&P 500 from those choices. I is currently at all time highs, so you may want to DCA from one fund to the other and do all at once if you think it is going to rip higher.

 

[CorbLand]

Thoughts on these options for 401k? I can do a percentage or all. It goes in order of most to least aggressive View attachment 1052357View attachment 1052358
View attachment 1052359

FXAIX

 

[HuntHarder]

Look at historical gains of the target date funds. Easy to compare returns. S&P fund is likely 10% a year on average. Judging by being in a 2055 retirement account, you aren't planning on retiring any time soon. The longer out the retirement funds are, *usually the more risky they are. The returns are often better than 10% a year unless the economy takes a down turn.

Mine is diversified between Target date funds, large cap (bulk of it) and a small cap fund. Large cap fund has crushed it over the last 5 years. Also look at the management fees for each fund. Some will be higher and lower than others.

 

[Escalante11]

I believe the biggest long term winner of this miss in Iran is metals/mining. We are already seeing a wave in new policy introduced to spur renewables adoption and lessen reliance on hydrocarbons. My take is hydrocarbons > metals in the near term (upwards of 18 months or so) but remain in the camp of metals > hydrocarbons beyond that for money invested today.

Happy to chat about any junior miners i may have a view on. And as always, appreciate any suggestions y’all might have.

 

[dieselchessy]

Thoughts on these options for 401k? I can do a percentage or all. It goes in order of most to least aggressive View attachment 1052357View attachment 1052358

View attachment 1052359

FXAIX has more Magnificent 7 stocks and tech and has better past performance. -.02 expense ratio.

VVIAX is primarily US large value stocks with less Mag 7 and tech concentration.
Past performance a bit less than the Tech stocks.
.05 expense ratio.

Im fairly conservative so would do some percentage of both to diversify.

I didn’t look much at the other funds.

Not advice and not worth the screen I wrote it on.

 

[MThoundhunter]

I believe the biggest long term winner of this miss in Iran is metals/mining. We are already seeing a wave in new policy introduced to spur renewables adoption and lessen reliance on hydrocarbons. My take is hydrocarbons > metals in the near term (upwards of 18 months or so) but remain in the camp of metals > hydrocarbons beyond that for money invested today.

Happy to chat about any junior miners i may have a view on. And as always, appreciate any suggestions y’all might have.

What juniors are you watching?