The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[MountainTracker]

$13.5 Billion was injected/printed into the system by the Fed on Dec 1, QE is starting.


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[ETtikka]

$13.5 Billion was injected/printed into the system by the Fed on Dec 1, QE is starting.


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Wow, more QE, sad to think most assume all of this “growth” is real

 

[Hnthrdr]

Wow, more QE, sad to think most assume all of this “growth” is real

Yeah no bueno… who knows what’s gonna happen next year when we get a new Fed chair who has stated he wants to drop interest rates by 2%…. Inflation is gonna rip and it’s gotta go somewhere likely into stock market and the housing market

 

[BBob]

housing market

^^^ That certainly will be one to watch. Do we have a bubble yet???

 

[MountainTracker]

Yeah no bueno… who knows what’s gonna happen next year when we get a new Fed chair who has stated he wants to drop interest rates by 2%…. Inflation is gonna rip and it’s gotta go somewhere likely into stock market and the housing market

This is what I think could happen with housing. Prices will inflate as rates go down and QE continues. I believe this is by design to help push through a 50 year loan. Having a longer loan term will free up more liquidity which can then be moved into markets and the economy. It will ultimately crush future generations. If I was looking to buy a house I wouldn’t wait until the new fed comes in. Right now is the buyers market, especially if you have cash. If I needed a loan I suck it up for 12 months and then refi. The new fed isn’t coming in until May, so those new rates wouldn’t be trickling in for a month or two. By the time a year comes around, rates will be lower and you don’t have to do bidding wars for homes. This is not financial advice, there are risks, like what if they don’t cut rates, what if they don’t continue QE. There is always a chance the entire economy collapses and home prices tank.

Just the way I see it playing out, we have about 5 months to watch and see.


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[Poser]

This is what I think could happen with housing. Prices will inflate as rates go down and QE continues. I believe this is by design to help push through a 50 year loan. Having a longer loan term will free up more liquidity which can then be moved into markets and the economy. It will ultimately crush future generations. If I was looking to buy a house I wouldn’t wait until the new fed comes in. Right now is the buyers market, especially if you have cash. If I needed a loan I suck it up for 12 months and then refi. The new fed isn’t coming in until May, so those new rates wouldn’t be trickling in for a month or two. By the time a year comes around, rates will be lower and you don’t have to do bidding wars for homes. This is not financial advice, there are risks, like what if they don’t cut rates, what if they don’t continue QE. There is always a chance the entire economy collapses and home prices tank.

Just the way I see it playing out, we have about 5 months to watch and see.


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This is what I think could happen with housing. Prices will inflate as rates go down and QE continues. I believe this is by design to help push through a 50 year loan. Having a longer loan term will free up more liquidity which can then be moved into markets and the economy. It will ultimately crush future generations. If I was looking to buy a house I wouldn’t wait until the new fed comes in. Right now is the buyers market, especially if you have cash. If I needed a loan I suck it up for 12 months and then refi. The new fed isn’t coming in until May, so those new rates wouldn’t be trickling in for a month or two. By the time a year comes around, rates will be lower and you don’t have to do bidding wars for homes. This is not financial advice, there are risks, like what if they don’t cut rates, what if they don’t continue QE. There is always a chance the entire economy collapses and home prices tank.

Just the way I see it playing out, we have about 5 months to watch and see.


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The analysis on 50 year mortgages is insane. Your total savings on your monthly mortgage payment is 16%. I don't know if Dave Ramsey's rant on this has gone viral yet or not, but you'll likley start seeing viral shorts from it later this week.

Of course, we can also consider the GDP data that we apparently are not going to get and may not see again until 2028. Lack of GDP data could really work over the retail investor.

 

[Hnthrdr]

^^^ That certainly will be one to watch. Do we have a bubb

Seems like a huge bubble… that the government will not allow to pop…

 

[Hnthrdr]

This is what I think could happen with housing. Prices will inflate as rates go down and QE continues. I believe this is by design to help push through a 50 year loan. Having a longer loan term will free up more liquidity which can then be moved into markets and the economy. It will ultimately crush future generations. If I was looking to buy a house I wouldn’t wait until the new fed comes in. Right now is the buyers market, especially if you have cash. If I needed a loan I suck it up for 12 months and then refi. The new fed isn’t coming in until May, so those new rates wouldn’t be trickling in for a month or two. By the time a year comes around, rates will be lower and you don’t have to do bidding wars for homes. This is not financial advice, there are risks, like what if they don’t cut rates, what if they don’t continue QE. There is always a chance the entire economy collapses and home prices tank.

Just the way I see it playing out, we have about 5 months to watch and see.


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Makes sense to me, I agree with that assessment

 

[Beendare]

Yeah, I can see @MountainTracker's scenario or something close happening. I do think some areas will be negatively affected due to the trend of less remote work and more going back to the office even if only a couple days a week. It's hard to live in a resort town....and go to the office. San Francisco is seeing a huge influx right now with large rental increases probably due to folks having to go in to the office. (part of that is they got rid of the liberal mayor and they are cracking down on crime and cleaning that city up)
I think there will be an exodus from some of those Resort areas- like the ski towns in the Western mountain areas that saw a big influx in the Covid years driving up prices to ridiculous levels. Some of those areas will probably get a rude awakening.
I think areas like Greater Boise will dodge that dip and continue to climb due to the retiree's.

I'm currently increasing my exposure to the markets going from about 60% to 80% or more.

 

[BBob]

Seems like a huge bubble… that the government will not allow to pop…

When has the government ever been successful in stopping a bubble from popping? It’s usually too little too late and we all end up paying for it.

If people have been or continue to buy grossly inflated housing with cash is the government going to bail you out of it crashes? No, you are not a “too big to fail corp” so tough luck.

 

[Hnthrdr]

When has the government ever been successful in stopping a bubble from popping? It’s usually too little too late and we all end up paying for it.

If people have been or continue to buy grossly inflated housing with cash is the government going to bail you out of it crashes? No, you are not a “too big to fail corp” so tough luck.

I mean by constantly implementing QE, they are propping up assets… they are propping up the endless debt cycle, endless spending, lots of the investment giants are now so entangled with housing that everyone has a vested interest to keep the bubble from popping, yes if it popped mom and pop will get boned, globo corps will get bailed… but what will the gov bail them with? We are 40 trillion in debt… only thing that seemingly is keeping us a float is everyone else is eyeball deep in debt with fiat currency as well…

 

[aftriathlete]

This is what I think could happen with housing. Prices will inflate as rates go down and QE continues. I believe this is by design to help push through a 50 year loan. Having a longer loan term will free up more liquidity which can then be moved into markets and the economy. It will ultimately crush future generations. If I was looking to buy a house I wouldn’t wait until the new fed comes in. Right now is the buyers market, especially if you have cash. If I needed a loan I suck it up for 12 months and then refi. The new fed isn’t coming in until May, so those new rates wouldn’t be trickling in for a month or two. By the time a year comes around, rates will be lower and you don’t have to do bidding wars for homes. This is not financial advice, there are risks, like what if they don’t cut rates, what if they don’t continue QE. There is always a chance the entire economy collapses and home prices tank.

Just the way I see it playing out, we have about 5 months to watch and see.


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I made this decision this year. Bought at a higher rate than I love, but I believe that when rates do come down (and they already are, just not quite far enough yet to make me want to refi) the list/sale prices will be gone to the moon. I'm close already to being able to re-fi at a rate that I'm comfortable with, but with the changing of the guard at the Fed in a few months it seems like there's going to be a pretty substantial drop in rates, so I'll deal with the payment til then.

 

[Beendare]

Screen shot courtesy of CFRA. Their research is free with my Schwab account and they regularly have some good stuff, this from their; "Thematic Research" section.

They go into detail on AI and Data centers....but on the second topic, Google gave us some Key insights; Data is now doubling every 6 months.

The energy portion of the topic I had mentioned In a previous post. Much more on this at the CFRA site.

 

[MountainTracker]

Trump admin to make robotics a national security priority.

After AI push, Trump administration is now looking to robots

It's the latest example of how the Trump administration is embracing industrial policy in a bid to compete against Beijing in critical sectors.

www.yahoo.com

TESLA


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[Poser]

What are ya'll thoughts on this Austrailian style retirement plan?

President Donald Trump’s administration is "seriously" considering rolling out an Australian-style retirement plan for Americans in an attempt to boost the U.S. birthrate.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-australian-style-retirement-plan-11149269

TLDR: Instead of paying payroll taxes into the government Social Security trust fund, a portion of a worker's salary, probably 12%, (or an employer contribution) would be legally required to go into a private, individual investment account. This is essentially a mandatory 401(k). There would be no opt out. Every employers pays in.

Would they just phase out social security at a age cut off or a graduated phase out? It does seem that the government would have to borrow trillions of dollars to pay current retirees while waiting for the new system to mature because you don't have the young paying into SS for old anymore. This would likely explode the national debt or require massive tax hikes elsewhere.

Though, It does seem to work reasonably well in Australia, I'm just not sure there is anyone is this Admin with the economic intelligence to pull this off.

 

[sasquatch]

What are ya'll thoughts on this Austrailian style retirement plan?

President Donald Trump’s administration is "seriously" considering rolling out an Australian-style retirement plan for Americans in an attempt to boost the U.S. birthrate.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-australian-style-retirement-plan-11149269

TLDR: Instead of paying payroll taxes into the government Social Security trust fund, a portion of a worker's salary, probably 12%, (or an employer contribution) would be legally required to go into a private, individual investment account. This is essentially a mandatory 401(k). There would be no opt out. Every employers pays in.

Would they just phase out social security at a age cut off or a graduated phase out? It does seem that the government would have to borrow trillions of dollars to pay current retirees while waiting for the new system to mature because you don't have the young paying into SS for old anymore. This would likely explode the national debt or require massive tax hikes elsewhere.

Though, It does seem to work reasonably well in Australia, I'm just not sure there is anyone is this Admin with the economic intelligence to pull this off.

I think it’s all dumb and another way to remove more self responsibility, just like social security did/does. “Don’t save or invest, just rely on SS”

If we never have to suffer the consequences from bad decisions, we will never learn and care to teach the next generation

Let ppl have their money and do what they want with it.

This is another effort to further prop up the market, force money into it.


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[Beendare]

Trump admin to make robotics a national security priority.

After AI push, Trump administration is now looking to robots

It's the latest example of how the Trump administration is embracing industrial policy in a bid to compete against Beijing in critical sectors.

www.yahoo.com

TESLA


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Musk made some good points in his Joe Rogan interview, though Rogan was over his skis and Musk did not bring specific examples.....which made that interview a bit of a dud.

Musk made the point that the interest payment on the National Debt exceeds our defense budget. That deficit spending always comes home to roost at some point and it can bury us. Musk said that DOGE probably could cut the national budget in half- but both parties were objecting.

Neither party wants to seriously address the overspending. Musk's thesis is the US needs another industrial boom to overcome that- he didn't say this but just like the internet was in the Clinton admin- and he thinks it's AI and robotics.

Whether that growth overcoming deficit spending strategy will work with our current political system, I'm skeptical. Personally I think it needs to be a combo of spending cuts and Industrial Revolution here at home- don't let your mouth write a check your azz can't cash.

I think the key takeaway is that we will be going balls to the wall on data centers, Robotics and AI for the next few years anyway- and to invest accordingly.

 

[sasquatch]

Musk made some good points in his Joe Rogan interview, though Rogan was over his skis and Musk did not bring specific examples.....which made that interview a bit of a dud.

Musk made the point that the interest payment on the National Debt exceeds our defense budget. That deficit spending always comes home to roost at some point and it can bury us. Musk said that DOGE probably could cut the national budget in half- but both parties were objecting.

Neither party wants to seriously address the overspending. Musk's thesis is the US needs another industrial boom to overcome that- he didn't say this but just like the internet was in the Clinton admin- and he thinks it's AI and robotics.

Whether that growth overcoming deficit spending strategy will work with our current political system, I'm skeptical. Personally I think it needs to be a combo of spending cuts and Industrial Revolution here at home- don't let your mouth write a check your azz can't cash.

I think the key takeaway is that we will be going balls to the wall on data centers, Robotics and AI for the next few years anyway- and to invest accordingly.

Another boom won’t get us out this mess because, if we don’t fix the drunk spending, daddy govt will see there’s money available to waste as we start to recover. They drunk spend like crazy on deficit, just imagine how quick they can spend a surplus


Any fix besides balancing budgets is a temporary patch, a bad patch at that

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[Hnthrdr]

I think it’s all dumb and another way to remove more self responsibility, just like social security did/does. “Don’t save or invest, just rely on SS”

If we never have to suffer the consequences from bad decisions, we will never learn and care to teach the next generation

Let ppl have their money and do what they want with it.

This is another effort to further prop up the market, force money into it.


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Ultimately agree with you but it seems just about anything is better than the current situation with are facing with SS

 

[TX_Diver]

What are some nuclear power plays that people like? Seems like a logical argument for that to increase in value over time from what I am reading. "OKLO" is one I have been reading up on, and it recently had a pretty big correction. It's a play on SMRs if I am reading correctly.

Today is a good day. Yesterday was not.

In the SMR space most of them are startups, little to no revenue for many of them. Huge potential for whoever makes it, but also plausible (likely) some go out of business.

The secretary of energy used to be on the board of Oklo so that’s probably worth something…

A recent Article about Oklo said it well in that you’re effectively investing in a power point presentation. Likely true, but there is the potential to make a ton of money on that PowerPoint investment

There are also companies like LEU, BWXT, etc who are actual established businesses. They don’t seem to have the wild ups/downs but they also seem less likely to go to zero…

That’s my summary so far. Also interested in what others think on it. I do think Nuclear is the future, but it’s likely to be a longer road to get there than some of these companies think and I’m skeptical all of them survive.