The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Pharmseller]

Ha ha....once you tasted the returns you have been getting, you won't be moving to to 5% bonds.

I'm 68, I'm not all in on tech but having a big chunk in there just means you can afford to buy the stuff you want.

We’ve got more money than we need, based on our lifestyle and spending habits, realistically, but it’s hard to walk away from days like today.

 

[Poser]

I think Tesla will win the self driving robotaxi race for several reasons. First of all Tesla produces self driving cars today for under 40k vs Waymo's 140k. Second Tesla has shown that they have the capability to build at scale. Third Tesla is using a visual self driving system that I believe will work better given our existing roads are all designed for visual drivers.

"Elon Musk has stated that roads are designed for a visual system—specifically, for human eyes and biological neural networks
. This argument is his justification for Tesla's strategy of relying solely on cameras and artificial intelligence (AI) for its self-driving technology, rather than adding other sensors like lidar or radar.

The "visual roads" argument

• Cameras mimic human eyes: Musk's core premise is that since the entire road system—including signs, lane markings, and traffic signals—was built for human visual processing, a system of cameras and an AI neural network is the most direct way to achieve self-driving.
• Silicon neural nets: In this analogy, the AI neural network acts as the "brain" that interprets the camera data, just as a human brain processes information from the eyes.
• Sensor redundancy is a "fool's errand": Musk has controversially dismissed lidar, a sensor that uses lasers to create a 3D map of the car's surroundings. He argues that the added complexity of fusing data from multiple sensor types can actually increase the risk of confusion and accidents. He once tweeted, "LIDAR is a seductive local maximum. ...the road system was designed to work with biological neural nets & eyes, so a general solution to self-driving necessarily will require silicon neural nets & cameras". "

Tesla has a track record of coming up short, failing to deliver and kicking the can to the next promising project. The hedge is “Tesla keeps trying to do something great so they will do something great eventually”

 

[kickemall]

As a motorcycle rider, I don't have faith in the accuracy of self driving vehicles. Pedestrians are in danger as well.
It's Fri and I am taking this tin foil hat off now and hunting. And watching my AMD stock gain from all the chip news and stuff.

I have ridden in several Waymo's and I think you have a lot more to worry about from human drivers. Waymo's cost less to ride in than Uber or Lyft but, I actually like having a driver better because the drivers know the area and drive faster, take short cuts, cut people off and do all the unsafe things to get you there faster. The technology of self driving cars is amazing. If anybody has a chance to ride in one you should and see just how amazing they are.

 

[irish02bk]

I've Driven in the FSD in tesla for around 15k miles and its been effective 95% of the time, its a learning curve but the more data Elon collects the better it will get.

 

[eddielasvegas]

Any holders of RNA here? If so, you done good.


Eddie

 

[Pharmseller]

Tomorrow might be a really good day.

 

[jlw0142]

Tomorrow might be a really good day.

Got anything particular you think will perform tomorrow? Maybe Oracle and potentially the rare earth mineral sector with the new China trade deal?


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[Pharmseller]

Got anything particular you think will perform tomorrow? Maybe Oracle and potentially the rare earth mineral sector with the new China trade deal?


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I’m looking at PLTR, NVDA, VOO, and ALAB overnight activity.

 

[Pharmseller]

NVS looks good, too.

 

[Pharmseller]

The market doesn’t love NVS buying RNA but I expect positive results from the purchase.

I was right about the rest, so far.

But just about everything is up today.

 

[jlw0142]

The market doesn’t love NVS buying RNA but I expect positive results from the purchase.

I was right about the rest, so far.

But just about everything is up today.

You were! I bought some ALAB this morning after doing some research last night. Good stuff, you hit the nail on the head.


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[Beendare]

Informative Economic outlook HERE
[For those that don't click links, Zero Hedge site Goldmans 4 takeaways article]

It seems the sky is not falling. My take, we should see a pretty good period going into the beginning of next year assuming no world crisis.

 

[MountainTracker]

@MountainTracker - care to elaborate?

@bozeman

Sorry for the delayed response been meaning to respond. This is just my observation and from what I’ve gathered. It probably won’t be a surprise I’m talking about Tesla, and there have been some posts already which explain why.

In the topic of Waymo they have about 2000 vehicles currently operating at an estimated price of $150k to $200k per vehicle. There are talks it may get down to as low as $70k. Waymo is relying on other manufacturers to build their vehicles which slows the process.

Tesla is quoting around $35k with the cyber cab, and estimated to make $50k a year. I’m sure that number really depends on where they are operating. Their goal is to be producing one at every 5 secs, or up to 300k vehicles on the first year. This is expected to begin in 2026.

Also, those with FSD will be able to turn on what is described as an uber mode with your personal vehicle. So when you are at home your car can bring in income instead of just sitting in the garage.

With the build costs and wait times Waymo will struggle to keep up. Ford, Chevy, VW and many other ice builders who have attempted to build EVs have failed due to high costs.



Waymo wrote an article indicating Tesla’s approach to data driven scalable AI approach is the correct route for building self driving vehicles

Waymo and Google Confirms Tesla Was Right About Robotaxi | NextBigFuture.com

There is a new paper by Google and Waymo (Scaling Laws of Motion Forecasting and Planning A Technical Report that confirmed Tesla getting more miles and

www.nextbigfuture.com

Tesla is begin or has been developing its own AI5 and AI 6 chips. I don’t think they will surpass NVIDIA chips, as Tesla keeps buying them to use. Being able to develop and use your chips saves you money and time when developing AI systems. These new chips will allow for AI inference vs training, meaning continuous learning and inferring and on a loop reinforces the system.

I’m not saying nvidia isn’t a great company bc I think they are and are going to be the leaders in the chip market. They pumped very well today off of their announcement of building chips in AZ now.

I think AI is going to be like what email is now, you wouldn’t imagine not using it for business bc it’s just that much more efficient.

Amazon just laid off 13k people, they might say it’s bc of the economy, which there is probably a level of that. I question if it isn’t the first layoffs due to AI and robots. Microsoft laid off a number of people a few weeks ago, they claim most of their programming is being done by AI now. GrokAI is one of the fastest systems currently operating.

In order to have AI and large data centers these companies will need power and lots of it. Tesla has large power storage systems. I believe companies will find ways to harvest unused power and store it for later use (bitcoin)……. A nations power production correlates with its GDP, the higher the production the higher the GDP.

Robots these will be used to replace human workforce in some form, warehouses…. Tesla bots are pretty impressive and use the same AI systems they have developed.

Idk if people really consider where these techs could go so here is a scenario: Citizen A needs to get groceries so they order online using a click list system, bc theft has bc so bad people grocery stores don’t allow shoppers into the store. The order goes to a warehouse grocery where a robot using AI picks your order and prepares it for your pickup. Once the order is filled you get an alert and you click a button and your car leaves your house and goes to the grocery store. Upon arrival the fronk opens up a bot loads your groceries and then your car returns. All done autonomously with little work from Citizen A.

Sorry for the long answer, I’m not smart so I’m sure there are blind spots. Thursday we will see a rate cut and another in Dec which is good for risk on assets.


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[MountainTracker]

I just got this after posting, it’s happening faster than we think.





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[jlw0142]

I just got this after posting, it’s happening faster than we think.

View attachment 957710
View attachment 957711


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This is only vaguely to the thread, but somewhat relevant. I am in law school taking a course about AI, and one of our assigned readings was an article about AI and human rights. This stuff is getting wild, and it’s going to really get interesting when they are indistinguishable from humans. Currently, synthetic “skin” is being made for these humanoids in order to make them as human-like as possible, and they are developing complex facial mechanisms so that they will be able to make proper facial expressions when speaking and listening. I truly think this is borderline evil (essentially creating a separate but indistinguishable race of human that will inevitably outperform humans due to our finite processing power and mortality), but it is the future and I doubt anything will be stopping it. If you can’t beat it, make money off of it.


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