The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

NDGuy said:
Every time Trump mentions tariffs we tank. Market hates tariffs.

Also GDP revised to -2.8%…yikes. Might be a bumpy year.


https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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I have respect for the Atl Fed - they have a good track record of calling GDP. The duration of the trade deficit (and the depth) determines where GDP goes this year (and the driver of the negative GDP outlook). He (Trump) could just as quickly reverse course and kill the tariffs and thus the revised GDP estimate would go back up.
 
jbwright said:
I have respect for the Atl Fed - they have a good track record of calling GDP. The duration of the trade deficit (and the depth) determines where GDP goes this year (and the driver of the negative GDP outlook). He (Trump) could just as quickly reverse course and kill the tariffs and thus the revised GDP estimate would go back up.
Click to expand...
Changes their mind with the wind direction so very true

Until then, SPY is down 2% today.
 
The S&P bounced off the 200 SMA today - 9d RSI sitting around 27 - instead of buying long I've been selling cash secured puts - great premiums on companies I know pretty well - been a great strategy for me the last year on volatile trading days to collect premium while also owning shares

1741123005011.png
 
mighteywhitehunter said:
Is anyone buying with these drops or just holding tight? Looks like there are some opportunities out there.
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I've been buying at my regular intervals. Although I've been timing them +/- a week for the next time the word "tariff" get's mentioned lol

I do have more cash on hand then normal though as I expected something bigger. Media's acting like the market's tanking where it's really only given up a couple months of gains. It's interesting to witness. I'm impressed. Maybe years of Buffet's "buy and never sell" has started to rub off on more people then we thought.
 
mighteywhitehunter said:
Is anyone buying with these drops or just holding tight? Looks like there are some opportunities out there.
Click to expand...
yes, added to 2 or 3 of my 12 positions the last week..but minding allocations and holding heftier than desired cash/RWM/SQQQ position to hedge downside/maintain some dry powder if/when things really go awry - I have a handful of small/micro caps I follow that I'll buy on double digit down days, but otherwise putting the clicker down
Also, reminded of this tweet from Musk late last yr. I think this generally aligns with what I think will happen in the markets

1741186891428.png
 
SWFLhntr said:
Bought some AMZN at $200. That seems like a steal.
Click to expand...
TLDR: not a bad price to buy
--
Current valuation suggests the market has them growing op cash flows (OCF is the valuation metric to use for Amazon b/c the business is constantly reinvesting so much capex to continue growing) about 10% annually over the next 5 years and maintain a p/ocf of about 23, which is below their historical avg of 27. All that means that fair value is probably in the 250-260 range, so IMHO it’s the only Mag 7 stock with a reasonable risk/reward profile

I wouldn’t be surprised if they grew op cf at 12% ish b/c they’re still growing AWS revenues at 19% (pretty insane if you think about it), while AWS is the profit driver of their biz. Expenses not growing at the pace of revenue, should see margin expansion esp as AWS grows (eg gross margin in 2011 was 22% and 12/31/24 was 48%). Ceo said aws growth will be lumpy next few years, but future is built on cloud, and largely on aws. Bottom line, they have to reinvest.

I think they fell after earnings b/c of the cap ex the CEO mentioned on the earnings call (I think he said $27B should be the 2025 cap ex qtrly run rate?) – to me, based on the market’s reaction, suggests that the market is still a bit uncertain on what AI hyperscalers are spending on capex (ie will the $100B’s of capex have a high enough ROI to justify today’s spend? Rhetorical), but it’s hard to argue with that b/c the ceo also said they don’t procure capex unless they see the demand…and they’re confident it’s worth it because they’re spending to grow AWS (which is growing in the high teens as of latest earnings, and ultimately driving the margin expansion despite 5-9% net sales growth outlook). They are building their own chips which apparently are 30-40% more “price efficient” than Nvidia chips. Both Amazon and Google said on latest earning calls that the limitation is on capacity (and power) but IMHO they can’t “not spend” to see if it’s worth it for the fear of being left behind/becoming irrelevant. Zuckerface has said the same.

Sorry for the long reply. I’ve been following Amazon for years and wanted to share
 
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