The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

coop22250 said:
I have a feeling there will be a few red candles in the next few months. I have the 401k in the 2% fund for awhile. Hoping for a decent correction to scale it back in, 25% at a time. I’d like a double dip and rip for the year!
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My limits were triggered this morning and I’m only sitting on 1/3 of my positions now. The rest is cash.
I don’t think today was anything other than a healthy correction in the correct sectors. I was definitely pushing the envelope on a few things.
Green Day’s ahead. Maybe after a few reds, I believe as well.
The next week will be a telling tale
 
BrokenArrow said:
That is a good question.
Current (today) = $55.85 (-$0.02) = -1.117 = so not great
P/E ratio (realistic/BS) = FOMO!
Future = purely spec? But, I'm buying.

Lets just say that i really don't have an answer for SHLL operating margin, cost of goods, variable costs, ETC....this does scare me a bit. But, so much less than Nikola! Not to divert the answer, but anyone holding Nikola is just paying for trevor milton's house in UT. They don't even have the building permit for their location in AZ!!!! The Permit hearing hasn't even taken place!
Anyway, I have done diligence on many aspects of SHLL and the confidence builders for me is their capability to generate carbon neutral vehicles, partner with Ryder and Dana, and be able to retrofit all the major carrier chassis.
I don't have a real good P/E answer for you all on this one. I'm riding the wave based on what I mentioned above. Hopefully future financials prove to us all they have what it takes. And $100/share was kind of a giant wish, but after another 15% gain today, what would merger news or a sales announcement do?

Contrarily, The other thing I will say is that I think segments of the market are beyond oversold. It is detached from our economy. Old market rules may have nothing to do with newer companies, because of newer investors investing in them.
I am careful/concerned for the near future of the market. I sold my longs within the last week on highs. I am trading FOMO/Volatility until that breaks down, ready to bail when I start seeing the first big red candles.
Then again, this momentum could last another year with stimulus propping up all the bubbles????
I have mentioned before in this thread that i am scared of a giant pullback. But, I keep trading and will make money as long as possible and I'm prepared to short, put, and spread when I think its time.

Country Boy, Thanks getting me fired up before PM open!
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Their production partners are good, but the partnership with Idealease will get them market exposure.

The 2024 projected earnings are $602M
When the merger closes and warrants are called there will be about 180M shares outstanding.

That would put EPS around $3.34.


Auto & Truck manufacturers have P/E of 15-20.

That puts a 2024 fair value estimate at somewhere between $50 and $67.

NKLA has twice as many shares outstanding as SHLL will have. NKLA will not have significant revenue before 2024 and earnings not until after that.

SHLL should be priced atleast double NKLA. Either SHLL pops into the crazy EV valuations or NKLA drops into the $20s.

I'm going long on both, but I feel that NKLA is more speculative, SHLL is more solid.
 
So, you buy SHLL? Then it turns into hyln shares? Sorry for the newb questions.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 
I was lovin it today. The tech BS finally getting some comeuppance.
'Tesla worth more that Toyota'.. LOL!!! Pure lunacy.
We need many more days of this real correction.

CDEV and others are way down, but that's okay too. True value of all of these stocks will come with time and the opening of our country.
 
DenverCountryBoy said:
Their production partners are good, but the partnership with Idealease will get them market exposure.

The 2024 projected earnings are $602M
When the merger closes and warrants are called there will be about 180M shares outstanding.

That would put EPS around $3.34.


Auto & Truck manufacturers have P/E of 15-20.

That puts a 2024 fair value estimate at somewhere between $50 and $67.

NKLA has twice as many shares outstanding as SHLL will have. NKLA will not have significant revenue before 2024 and earnings not until after that.

SHLL should be priced atleast double NKLA. Either SHLL pops into the crazy EV valuations or NKLA drops into the $20s.

I'm going long on both, but I feel that NKLA is more speculative, SHLL is more solid.
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I like this and did see projected Ebita in the June investor packet. Including 2024 revenue based on 2.2% market share.
I think they will sell more than this. How do I know this? I don’t.
What I do know is there is a lot of conjecture about two grocery chains that are working with hyliion - HEB (600 trucks) and Wegmans (200 trucks). Wegmans has been announced, HEB is Spec. Just saying that if they land those solidly the ebita changes dramatically in the short term in the best way.
Some say I’m a dreamer. My last career was a laboratory owner and chemist. It’s very hard for me to accept beta other than empirical evidence that I generate myself. The fun part of the market for me is the high likelyhood that any info I get is influx and challenges my determination and loosens my empirical evidence mind for short term stuff. Thus I rely heavily on charting techniques to day, swing, or options trade.

Are we correct seeing:
1. shares after merger = 161,626,147
2. # of warrants = 18,310,641
3. Total = 179,936,798 or 180mil rounded.

Market cap - $40(179,936,798) =$7,197,481,520
4 year average profit projected = 172,250,000

Forward P/E = 21
Avg forward for growth companies = 40-60

Tesla’s forward P/e is 197 as of Aug 26, 2020
 
BrokenArrow said:
I like this and did see projected Ebita in the June investor packet. Including 2024 revenue based on 2.2% market share.
I think they will sell more than this. How do I know this? I don’t.
What I do know is there is a lot of conjecture about two grocery chains that are working with hyliion - HEB (600 trucks) and Wegmans (200 trucks). Wegmans has been announced, HEB is Spec. Just saying that if they land those solidly the ebita changes dramatically in the short term in the best way.
Some say I’m a dreamer. My last career was a laboratory owner and chemist. It’s very hard for me to accept beta other than empirical evidence that I generate myself. The fun part of the market for me is the high likelyhood that any info I get is influx and challenges my determination and loosens my empirical evidence mind for short term stuff. Thus I rely heavily on charting techniques to day, swing, or options trade.

Are we correct seeing:
1. shares after merger = 161,626,147
2. # of warrants = 18,310,641
3. Total = 179,936,798 or 180mil rounded.

Market cap - $40(179,936,798) =$7,197,481,520
4 year average profit projected = 172,250,000

Forward P/E = 21
Avg forward for growth companies = 40-60

Tesla’s forward P/e is 197 as of Aug 26, 2020
Click to expand...
That is the share numbers I'm seeing.

The earnings estimate may be conservative, but I like that. Under promise, over deliver.

I will definitely exercise my warrants when the time comes and hold. My total cost per share (warrant + $11.50 exercise) is $17.57.

On the other hand, I will likely sell NKLA after they get production up and running and the CEO goes full hype mode again.
 
DenverCountryBoy said:
It's only a loss if you sell. I'm thinking about buying this dip.
Click to expand...

So I’ve been learning scaling into a stock so you aren’t just flopping your chips on the table.

Say it touches .60, you buy in with 33%, it drops to .50 you put the other 33% in, if it drops further out the rest in. At this point you should have an avg of around .50. It helps because we all know timing the bottom is not consistent, this allows you to miss the bottom yet be nearer the lows.

If you buy the 33% first and it jumps, that’s ok you are still in cheap, don’t chase with the rest
 
I’m back in CDEV at .57, fully prepared to add the other 2/3’s at .52, .47. If I end up holding a bag at .52 avg for a few months I think that will be fine.

It’s been a rough few weeks for small caps, now the Tech bubble looks like it’s finally popping a bit, was way out of control.

Finally back on my regular schedule, can trade again!
 
coop22250 said:
I’m back in CDEV at .57, fully prepared to add the other 2/3’s at .52, .47. If I end up holding a bag at .52 avg for a few months I think that will be fine.

It’s been a rough few weeks for small caps, now the Tech bubble looks like it’s finally popping a bit, was way out of control.

Finally back on my regular schedule, can trade again!
Click to expand...
I had a purchase order if it dipped to 49. Told myself awhile back I wouldn’t add anymore unless it dropped under 50. Is it bad I was half asses hoping it would dip down there to load up? Haha
 
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