Success rate dip but objectives up?

[tbro16]

The novice elk hunter in me has a question regarding a group of units in Colorado. Background, I've never had what most would consider to be even a decent elk tag in my pocket. Finally built up a small handful of points I'd like to burn in CO on a first rifle draw next year. I've done a ton of numbers research on overall (bull + cow) success rates, bull only success rates, objectives, draw reports, etc. Really don't want to mess this one up. Have a few months to figure it out.

My question- In a group of units that I'm considering I see the overall bull success rate took a pretty significant hit in '24 (~15%) from the four years prior (~30-40%). What's interesting is the objectives for these units are nearly twice as high now as they were just a few years ago. Looks like the CPW only allowed bull harvest there from 2019-2022. I'm sure it depends on a million different things and there's not just one right answer. But hypothesizing that at least apart of the reason of the drop is because guys are content with shooting cows, hence filling their tag and being "unsuccessful" in the final bull tally? Anything else in particular I should be looking into before applying to that region?

 

[LostArra]

I would first consider where the success rate figures came from since Colorado has no mandatory harvest reporting.

When you kill a deer in Minnesota there is probably a required check in procedure, usually online (phone). Not so in Colorado. Any harvest data fluctuations could very well be sampling variables. You will hear how their random calls and letters give them the data they need blah, blah blah. For such a valuable resource you would think harvest reporting would be mandatory,

 

[alexnelon]

Yeah Colorado "success rates" mean nothing. There's no mandatory reporting so the numbers just aren't reliable.

Even population and objective numbers are just estimates. They don't know anything for sure.

 

[go_deep]

You only need one to fill your license, don't worry about success rate.
Worry about the type of terrain the hunt area has, normal weather for that time of year, amount of accessible acres, and does that fit your physical ability to hunt?

 

[Chris in TN]

I'm barely more than a novice myself, if that, but, man, don't worry too much about success rates. Or even bull:cow ratios.

Those things might be ballpark close or might be off badly. It's hard to calculate an accurate post-hunt bull:cow ratio when it's warm and some bulls are still five miles up a mountain from the rest of the herd.

And success rates are estimates, and the unit with low success one year might be due to weather and might be much better next year. Or might be worse because other hunters flock there because they're hoping it'll be better. Or they had a tag good for two units and didn't like where they went last year.

You can spend all summer trying to game this out and at the end of the day most of it doesn't matter much for tags you can draw with 0-2 points. It's gonna be crowded and you're gonna have to work for elk and some of that 'work' won't meet your vision of an idyllic hunt because it'll involve more competing with other hunters than sitting peacefully on a mountaintop choosing the best bull from an undisturbed herd.

I took my daughter to an easy-access unit this fall. There were elk there, but more people than elk. In many ways the hunting sucked. But I'd much prefer to go back there, than to go to another similar unit with similar stats where I'd be starting from scratch again. The little details you learn about a unit while hunting it are worth more than minor variances in unit stats. You can bank on that, at least.

 

[chindits]

I would keep monitoring winter conditions for your unit of choice. Right now we have had such a snowless hunting season that there wasn’t even a migration 4th rifle. Success rates this year should be really low because of that. With that in mind, if there isn’t a major winter kill, next year could look pretty awesome. However, you really got 5-6 months of winter before you should even think about getting all excited for next year. IMHO

 

[willfrye027]

I would keep monitoring winter conditions for your unit of choice. Right now we have had such a snowless hunting season that there wasn’t even a migration 4th rifle. Success rates this year should be really low because of that. With that in mind, if there isn’t a major winter kill, next year could look pretty awesome. However, you really got 5-6 months of winter before you should even think about getting all excited for next year. IMHO

This. The low success that year could have been due to no snow, or too much snow and elk made it down to private. Depends on the unit.

This year in Montana an old timer told us it was the worst hunt he’s had in 30 years. We experienced the best elk hunt we’ve had there and all killed bulls in one day of hunting. You just never know sometimes..you can analyze statistics to death but in the end you gotta be in the field and learning a unit and learning to hunt elk.

 

[tbro16]

Daaaang. Everything I thought I knew turned out to just be one big lie! So much for the hours I've spent crunching those numbers!! I'm a big time objective info/stats/numbers (baseball) guy, I thought I could use it to my advantage to help me find a successful hunt. Nope.

I appreciate the tips, some great info in here yet. I'm up to 4 points. The vast majority of my elk hunting experience has been OTC rifle with 20+ trucks at the trailhead. Trust me, I know crowded lol.