State Estimated Elk Populations

[twilliams212]

I'm trying to do a deeper dive into all of the available statistics across all of the various online resources. Some questions for you experienced Elk hunters. How much stock do you put into the State's estimated elk pops and bull/cow ratios? How accurate do you feel these estimates are? I was trying to figure out if I can calculate my own semi-accurate elk density by unit using the available population estimates. I would guess that the higher the elk density, the more licenses available, and therefore the higher the hunter density would likely be. Finding that balance is what I am trying to narrow in on, but how much would you base your decision on a specific elk unit using elk density information?

 

[CMF]

I don't put a lot of stock in the accuracy, and I wouldn't compare state to state, but I feel like using a given state's data to compare units within that state makes sense. Even if the data is off, it should be collected the same throughout the state. The comparison from unit to unit should then carry some weight.
Why guess the hunter density based on elk population data, when you can get actual hunter and man-days-hunted data(at least for some states) as well as unit area(if you have gohunt).
I would hunt an area less dense with elk if it was less dense with hunters...

 

[Overdrive]

I don't put any stock in the population estimates, I certainly don't use it to determine where I'll put in for a tag or hunt. It's nothing more than a number for window shoppers looking for a hunt area or state. Put your estimates high and it will bring in people=money. I'd bet that the actual numbers are half of the published estimated herd numbers state wildlife agencies put out. SWAG method at best.

 

[twilliams212]

I don't put a lot of stock in the accuracy, and I wouldn't compare state to state, but I feel like using a given state's data to compare units within that state makes sense. Even if the data is off, it should be collected the same throughout the state. The comparison from unit to unit should then carry some weight.
Why guess the hunter density based on elk population data, when you can get actual hunter and man-days-hunted data(at least for some states) as well as unit area(if you have gohunt).
I would hunt an area less dense with elk if it was less dense with hunters...

Oh for sure! I absolutely have been using the real license data from go hunt and state draw results. Pick Colorado for instance. There are obviously a lot of elk throughout the state. It's "simple" enough to determine hunter density for the different seasons by unit, but if you pick a unit based primarily on hunter density and don't factor in elk density, could you be hurting your odds of opportunity simply because there are just fewer elk in the area? Or am I just overthinking it?

 

[twilliams212]

I don't put any stock in the population estimates, I certainly don't use it to determine where I'll put in for a tag or hunt. It's nothing more than a number for window shoppers looking for a hunt area or state. Put your estimates high and it will bring in people=money. I'd bet that the actual numbers are half of the published estimated herd numbers state wildlife agencies put out. SWAG method at best.

What do you mean by SWAG method?

 

[CMF]

but if you pick a unit based primarily on hunter density and don't factor in elk density, could you be hurting your odds of opportunity simply because there are just fewer elk in the area?

Potentially, and I wouldn't say I pick a unit based primarily on hunter density. I think some other factors are more important than the elk density tho. Less hunter density means less people screwing up your play on elk, less pressure on elk, more callable elk...
I think the ability to go back to an area regularly and learn it is greater than a higher elk density.
Like you're looking for, it's finding that balance you like.

 

[Jaquomo]

The bigger issue is in reporting "huntable" elk populations. If a unit has, say, 3000 elk but 2500 of them live basically year round on big ranches with little or no public hunting, the reported stats are still "3000 elk". They also don't report the difference in success rates for public vs. private-guided.

 

[Laramie]

What do you mean by SWAG method?

Scientific wild a$$ guess...

 

[wytx]

Depends on conditions when they fly.
WG&F had great conditions 2 years back I think it was, animals were out in the open to count.
They got accurate numbers and were able to see actual herds not just estimate them.
Some years just a guess I believe based on harvests reported and previous "guesses".

 

[Dos Perros]

I've been down that rabbit hole before. One time I created a statistical model using regression analysis to determine which units were under valued over valued or correctly valued based on point spend. There's enough data and ways to consider it to go completely nuts, get into analysis paralysis.

I've said this a lot on here. Sure, do some diligent research via public sources. But then talk to PEOPLE. And then, go scouting. And I don't care if you live in Florida, you can scout Wyoming. Take a summer trip, hike around, glass, and again talk to people. People in person will spill the beans sometimes.

Then, it's all about what you do in the moment of truth. If you're the kind of guy that can make the right decisions and execute a marginal shot opportunity you will be very deadly. If you're like the rest of us, you'll get lucky every once in a while!

 

[Nickofthewoods]

I put about as much thought into population numbers as I do published success rates in that neither correlate to my own personal experiences very much.

For example, I hunt OTC elk in my home state of Colorado every year and have a personal success rate of about 70% in units that have reported success rates (by CPW) of between 10-20% overall. I know these areas well and scout a lot.

Another example is a NM Barbary Sheep draw hunt I just went on that had an overall 40% success rate. I saw lots of sheep but not one was on public land I was hunting. This made me believe that a lot of the reported success is taking place on private land and/or I didn't know the area or animals well enough to give myself better odds.

Playing statistics can give you a general idea of what's going on in a place but ultimately you'll get a better idea putting down boot leather scouting or during the hunt. Preferably both and over the course of several years.

 

[Caseknife]

Hunted a general unit last fall in Wyoming. that was above population objective, either sex and during the rut and saw 3 elk. That is hunting hard for 4 days. Beautiful country and had a fun time seeing a new area, but won't go back there. Couldn't have proven to us that the unit was over population, very little sign at all, lots of water, lots of feed, lots of great habitat. First time in five trips to Wyoming that we didn't come home with an elk. Sometimes the herd statistics aren't what is portrayed, they may have been there, but not in where we were hunting and we weren't the only ones struggling to find elk.

 

[PathFinder]

I don't put much stock in it at all. As was mentioned above, many large herds are almost 100% on private during hunting season. That's particularly true of Colorado.
The only thing worth banking on is where you've personally found them during season. It's reasonable to count on 3-5 years of hunting before knowing enough to be successful.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[11boo]

The bigger issue is in reporting "huntable" elk populations. If a unit has, say, 3000 elk but 2500 of them live basically year round on big ranches with little or no public hunting, the reported stats are still "3000 elk". They also don't report the difference in success rates for public vs. private-guided.

That is a big one. Colorado is always pushing their numbers and a lot of the elk are in and around RMNP , Evergreen, etc. Then all the big ranches. I wonder what the actual numbers really are.

 

[Felix40]

My home unit in NM is usually grossly underrepresented in herd counts. I think this year they estimated 7k elk but they sold 2,500 public tags. Plus there are landowner tags. There’s no way we are killing that percentage of the herd and it continues to grow every year.

 

[trophyhill]

I've been down that rabbit hole before. One time I created a statistical model using regression analysis to determine which units were under valued over valued or correctly valued based on point spend. There's enough data and ways to consider it to go completely nuts, get into analysis paralysis.

I've said this a lot on here. Sure, do some diligent research via public sources. But then talk to PEOPLE. And then, go scouting. And I don't care if you live in Florida, you can scout Wyoming. Take a summer trip, hike around, glass, and again talk to people. People in person will spill the beans sometimes.

Then, it's all about what you do in the moment of truth. If you're the kind of guy that can make the right decisions and execute a marginal shot opportunity you will be very deadly. If you're like the rest of us, you'll get lucky every once in a while!

If people actually scouted, then there'd be no need for sites like Go Hunt, OnX, and a host of others. Come to think of it, guys like Newberg would become irrelevant as well. Although all the aforementioned plus a bunch are irrelevant to me anyway.......

 

[trophyhill]

My home unit in NM is usually grossly underrepresented in herd counts. I think this year they estimated 7k elk but they sold 2,500 public tags. Plus there are landowner tags. There’s no way we are killing that percentage of the herd and it continues to grow every year.

I'm seeing elk in places they've never been before and never thought I'd see them in these deserts of NM. Funny I'm not seeing any deer in these areas, or very few like I used too where elk have moved in

 

[Redraider14]

Hunted a general unit last fall in Wyoming. that was above population objective, either sex and during the rut and saw 3 elk. That is hunting hard for 4 days. Beautiful country and had a fun time seeing a new area, but won't go back there. Couldn't have proven to us that the unit was over population, very little sign at all, lots of water, lots of feed, lots of great habitat. First time in five trips to Wyoming that we didn't come home with an elk. Sometimes the herd statistics aren't what is portrayed, they may have been there, but not in where we were hunting and we weren't the only ones struggling to find elk.

Which unit we talking about sir?