This will probably be solid. I run a 0° bag with a pad all year. I like bringing tyvek too just in case water seeps under or something.Thinking 8'x8' tarp, pad, and 0°down bag. Figure if it's a little colder have tinder and wood ready to light.
Sidenote. The biggest thing that has kept me awake is wind. Bad wind and slamming tarp makes for some "I think I slept a little bit?" mornings. Earbuds help LOL