Market commentary you deem relevant

[swampfoxsc]

The fastest way to get rich is to go slow.

Boring is better. Save and plow funds into a low cost index fund. Can't time the market and highly doubt you have an edge on any single stock.

 

[2531usmc]

Anybody watching the collapse in commercial real estate in our large cities. Large office buildings selling for 40 to 50% of what they were worth 4 or 5 years ago. The negative pricing is starting to move into the large apartment buildings now.

I’m just wondering if this is indicative of the larger national debt bubble being pricked? Is so, what’s the impact on housing prices and equities

 

[WhatToHunt]

Index fund on your own or you're doing yourself a massive disservice. That would be my only recommendation for anyone.

I've recently worked with a friend on reviewing the funds his financial advisor has him in... what a joke. It actually pisses me off. Front load fees, irresponsibly poor performance, plus the AUM fees around 1% or more. It is laughable.

Learn to use index funds and enjoy being anything but sexy about it. Investing isn't gambling. If you are a good gambler, I'm happy for you, but I won't try to be you.

I do feel for those who are late to the game though.

Edited to add that anyone who hasn't seen The Retirement Gamble, should:

 

[OMF]

@WhatToHunt,

Thank you for sharing that vid! It's an eye opener for sure.

Do we teach banking, managing finances, how credit works, how investing works, free markets etc. or something similar in HS these days?? I.e. How to start your life as a responsible, critical thinking adult with some basic, necessary knowledge of how the world works. I'm guessing "no", and even when I went to HS I had to take multiple classes to cover that information. But no one told me to or guided me, particularly my useless guidance counselor. But I think the lack of knowledge in these areas are certainly contributing to why "we" are in the retirement mess we are in.

 

[WhatToHunt]

@WhatToHunt,

Thank you for sharing that vid! It's an eye opener for sure.

Do we teach banking, managing finances, how credit works, how investing works, free markets etc. or something similar in HS these days?? I.e. How to start your life as a responsible, critical thinking adult with some basic, necessary knowledge of how the world works. I'm guessing "no", and even when I went to HS I had to take multiple classes to cover that information. But no one told me to or guided me, particularly my useless guidance counselor. But I think the lack of knowledge in these areas are certainly contributing to why "we" are in the retirement mess we are in.

You bet. I feel so terribly bad for so many people who simply just don't know what they don't know and get overwhelmed.

 

[Ross]

Recently retired 60. It is Your future, ignorance is no excuse to not learn and plan for your families future. Today there is so much info at our disposal. I followed the slow and steady path in my 401k for 30 years maxing out the amount you could contribute for 15 years. During the mess of 2008 I watched co-workers bail, told them NO leave your money alone and Max out what you can. Some listened and some did not. Slow, steady and diligent will get you there just have an understanding of whatever you choose to contribute. I equate it to working out, what you put into your workouts and being diligent will get you there in the end

 

[OMF]

@Ross,

While I tend to agree, back in the 80's and 90's information wasn't as easy to come by. It was mostly hard cover books that were "out of date" by the time they were printed, print magazines, and the lies from brokers. I feel that it's only been in the last 15 years or so that good info has been readily available.

 

[Ross]

@OMF

Agreed, information was more difficult to find but at our disposal.

Investing is not rocket science, understand risk versus reward, understand time value of money, understand what you are investing in, Don’t invest and not have monthly, quarterly, yearly follow ups to see how you are doing. It does not take superior knowledge, what it does take is diligence, common sense, budgeting, patience, and time in most instances to earn wealth and a positive balance sheet. I would send updates to the mrs 25 yrs ago every few months positive and negative to see where we were, as there was no one to blame on our progress other than ourselves staying accountable understanding how the above works and the up and downs of the stock market. When we visited our financial person two years ago, we found out we were in the minority of where we were at and we read about this all the time. People do not plan, want something for nothing and expect someone else will help them. No you own your own future, and I was a B- student, but had common sense and diligence. Good luck to all on the road it has ups and downs but can be handled.

 

[Beendare]

Anybody watching the collapse in commercial real estate in our large cities. Large office buildings selling for 40 to 50% of what they were worth 4 or 5 years ago. The negative pricing is starting to move into the large apartment buildings now.

I’m just wondering if this is indicative of the larger national debt bubble being pricked? Is so, what’s the impact on housing prices and equities

Not all commercial RE sucks. The trend is negative for Office sure, because apx 65% of employees haven’t gone back to the office.Thats a trend that doesn’t affect apartments.

Apartments are affected by rent control and interest rates. Higher mortgage rates help apartments, higher treasuries can negatively affect the value.

Most would benefit from owning a small % of REITs RE investment trusts in certain segments like apts, medical- they consistently pay a high dividend.

 

[HornPorn]

I swear any particular company I look up with a decent dividend, has pretty flat growth in stock price long term. The total stock market index fund I look at always seems to outperform looking back long term. At least all the individual stocks I always check out

That's by design. Growth Stocks typically do not pay a dividend, or pay a negligible one, so the return is generally in appreciation. Stocks with a solid dividend, and a history of increasing that dividend over time, generally do not appreciate much, but they are a cash cow, and you sleep at night, set it to reinvest, and go about your life without worrying about volatility. This is why it was such big news that Meta announced a 50 cent dividend when they are clearly are a growth stock.

There is no question that Growth stocks will return more than Value stocks, the issue is most people can't stomach the volatility, so they go for a low Beta strategy. Market goes up 1%, my portfolio goes up 1%, etc. And most Financial Advisors are going to put their clients into 20 different mutual funds to make things seem complicated/make it seem like they are needed.

 

[SDHNTR]

Index fund on your own or you're doing yourself a massive disservice. That would be my only recommendation for anyone.

I've recently worked with a friend on reviewing the funds his financial advisor has him in... what a joke. It actually pisses me off. Front load fees, irresponsibly poor performance, plus the AUM fees around 1% or more. It is laughable.

Learn to use index funds and enjoy being anything but sexy about it. Investing isn't gambling. If you are a good gambler, I'm happy for you, but I won't try to be you.

I do feel for those who are late to the game though.

Edited to add that anyone who hasn't seen The Retirement Gamble, should:

No financial advisor serving in the capacity of fiduciary is charging front load fees AND a % on AUM. Heck, most good ones rarely even use traditional mutual funds at all anymore.

No knock on index investing, just make sure you fully understand what you are doing. Its not a simple as it seems. A firm understanding of what a market cap weighted index means is imperative. Most investors in the S&P 500 would be shocked if they knew how their money was really invested and the associated risk.

 

[HornPorn]

Most investors in the S&P 500 would be shocked if they knew how their money was really invested and the associated risk.

 

[SDHNTR]

View attachment 668796

Yep. It ain’t well diversified across 500 stocks. So someone in or nearing retirement better be ok with all that tech risk and volatility.

 

[WhatToHunt]

No financial advisor serving in the capacity of fiduciary is charging front load fees AND a % on AUM. Heck, most good ones rarely even use traditional mutual funds at all anymore.

No knock on index investing, just make sure you fully understand what you are doing. Its not a simple as it seems. A firm understanding of what a market cap weighted index means is imperative. Most investors in the S&P 500 would be shocked if they knew how their money was really invested and the associated risk.

This financial advisor is through Edward Jones and I would think would be a fiduciary, but I personally think they're just a douche.

I don't know that indexing needs to be as complicated as some might think. An example of using VTSAX puts a person in 3,750 stocks which seems quite diversified.

 

[SDHNTR]

I don't know that indexing needs to be as complicated as some might think. An example of using VTSAX puts a person in 3,750 stocks which seems quite diversified.

You just proved my point. Things aren’t always what they seem. The number of stocks is virtually meaningless if the index is cap weighted.

 

[Dos Perros]

I wish there was an easy way to buy 95% of the S&P 500. Like buy it all except for the stuff you know is dogshit.

 

[WhatToHunt]

You just proved my point. Things aren’t always what they seem. The number of stocks is virtually meaningless if the index is cap weighted.

I think it's exactly as it seems and we're looking at it the same way. I'm accepting that potential volatility of the index itself and not trying to beat anything.

 

[Z Barebow]

@Ross,

While I tend to agree, back in the 80's and 90's information wasn't as easy to come by. It was mostly hard cover books that were "out of date" by the time they were printed, print magazines, and the lies from brokers. I feel that it's only been in the last 15 years or so that good info has been readily available.

I beg to differ.

Your comment should more accurately state. "The access to "real time" information did not exist for the average investor in the 80's & 90's".

I will give you the amount of information was less back then (today we have www.), as noted the sources were different. I subscribed to Mutual Fund magazine and watched Louis Rukyeser (sp?) on PBS every week. I am not investment genius, but I knew enough to start an IRA as soon as I had a real job. (19 years old and my employer had nothing)

Real time info is not all it is cracked up to be. (For me anyway). Yes I use it, (along with other data including long term trend data) to chose my investments. Until recently, my purchases have been focused on long term investing (retirement) When I bought something, (ex mutual fund), I bought it based upon my research. For the most part, I forget about it. To be honest, whenever I question why I bought something I revisit the fundamentals and I am reminded and I stay the course.

EX I was big into no load mutual funds. Started a fund for my wife back in 1994. (We cannot remember where original funding came from) It has averaged over 10% annually. Last year it returned over 40%. She sees the statement today and she is giddy. (Found this info via magazine noted above.)

American Century Investments® Growth Fund

A risk-aware fund that seeks growth by investing in large U.S. companies with improving business characteristics.

www.americancentury.com

 

[OMF]

@Ross,

Well said (written?)!! To think that anyone is truly interested and working towards your financial well-being other than you is seems pretty foolish and naive to me. After watching my parents struggle, especially my mom, I realized very quickly that NO company or financial person is going to really help me with my financial goals and retirement.

 

[ianpadron]

ETF heavy held in individual brokerage accounts, 401k only if there's a company match (shouldn't have to wait til 59.5 to touch your own money and pay more taxes on it), tax free nature of Roths/backdoors is cool but still have the age restrictions on dividends/earnings.

I think being nimble is invaluable, and like having dry powder on hand at all times for when a can't miss asset pops up in my main focus:

Tax depreciable, but equity appreciating cash flowing assets (real estate) as the bread n butter.

That's my model and I'm not shifting from it at 31 YO. I respect the fellas who can pick stocks but that ain't the way my brain functions, I like tangible assets and set it/forget it hedged risk funds.